Tag Archives: future

Five to Eight Percent

When I think about the modern company with shareholders, I can’t help but think that this system is designed to undermine ethical and environmental progress. There are companies laying off workers right now while providing shareholders huge dividends and returns. The system is flawed. These returns help drive the company stock price up at the expense of ethically growing the company… instead of helping workers keep their job and keep their wages fair in comparison to what shareholders get

What if companies promised shareholders a maximum of a 5%-8% return? Any company profits beyond that are invested back into the company, towards employees, and/or towards environmental or community initiatives. If this were the case, companies would still have the same commitment to meet shareholders targets, but those targets wouldn’t be based on greed. Instead they would be focussed on doing the most good.

I’m not an economist and don’t know all the ins and outs of how this would work? I don’t know what the magic return percentage should be? But I do know that the current model is based on greed and unsustainable growth. If companies capped shareholder returns at a safe investment amount, and promised to do good with what would have been more returns, I think there would still be a market for the stocks… And these companies could help make the world a better place.

Flying Cars

If you were any kind of fan of science fiction fan growing up, then you probably imagined that by now we would be traveling by flying car.

While I don’t think flying cars are too close to being a common means of transportation any time soon, I do think that there will come a time when this will be a viable and safe way to travel. How will this disrupt what we currently do? Often times the disruption isn’t fully thought about until the new technology is gaining ground.

How will we rethink roads? Will we be allowed to drive them, or will they be controlled by AI, which is fully aware of every other vehicle around them (in a way that we can’t accomplish with our brains and our limited attention?)

Would buildings have arrival and departures from their roofs? Will cars link up if they are heading in the same direction? Where will they be allowed to take off and land? What does rush hour look like?

We haven’t been very good at foreseeing how a new technology will change the way we do things, and I think flying cars will be one of those technologies that disrupts our lives significantly… and then we’ll have conversations about their value after they are inevitable.

We don’t prepare for technology to transform our lives, we just react to technology after we’ve integrated it into our lives.

The Great Reset or the Great Rethink?

I can’t believe how often good ideas get buried into conspiracy theories. See this article in the Nee York Times:

The baseless ‘Great Reset’ conspiracy theory rises again

A baseless conspiracy theory about the coronavirus has found new life as cases surge once again.

On Monday morning, the phrase “The Great Reset” trended with nearly 80,000 tweets, with most of the posts coming from familiar far-right internet personalities. The conspiracy alleges that a cabal of elites has long planned for the pandemic so that they could use it to impose their global economic control on the masses…

The article then shared this tweet:


Now, moving away from crackpots that spread the idea of some ruling cabal planning to use the pandemic to bring in a socialist and controlling government to strip you of rights and freedoms… there are actually some very smart people looking for the opportunity in this crisis.

These wise thinkers and leaders are trying to rethink some of the idiocy of our pre-covid world, and take this opportunity to do a reset of some sort. That’s not a conspiracy, that’s leadership.

Check out this World Economic Forum happening now: weforum.org.

What’s on the agenda?

Sustainable production: Almost 50% of the world’s energy consumption and 20% of greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to the manufacturing sector. How can we accelerate sustainable production and make it a competitive advantage? 

New digital business models: While much of the physical world came to a standstill during the global pandemic, digital connectivity soared. How can new digital business models help companies provide value and build resilience? 

Urban infrastructure and services: Many cities face serious obstacles to providing basic services, and COVID-19 has made it even more difficult. How can urban innovations help cities improve quality of life, resilience and sustainability?

Keeping populations healthy: The pandemic has revealed the need to strengthen health systems and ensure that populations have better information and control over their health. How can technologies help to improve and maintain healthier lives? 

Financial innovation: New financial technologies are shaping how services are provided around the world. How can we ensure that they are accessible and deliver greater value and efficiency to all parts of society?

Frontier technologies: Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain and synthetic biology, are heralding a global transformation. How can we create, scale-up and govern these technologies so they “do no harm” while delivering the value we need? 

New work models: New work models are essential to address the challenges created by a transforming labour market, new skillset requirements and globally connected technology-driven industries. How can we ensure that employees are able to keep up with the evolving demand for skills and have the opportunity to contribute purposefully to the workplace of the future?

Imagine that: smart people getting together to ask meaningful questions about how our world could be a better place! Of course some of the solutions will be ‘out there’, big audacious (and to some, scary) ideas. But I want to live in a world where people challenge themselves to rethink what’s not working and use times like this to reset how we do things. The fact that some people are afraid of change shouldn’t generate fear-mongering and stop us from making thoughtful progress during challenging times.

For example, as an educator I’ve seen remote learning catapult the use of technology in classrooms and many great educators are rethinking the way they interact with students, and the way they get students to interact with each other. If the pandemic ends and we just go back to the way things were before, we are missing out on using some valuable lessons learned. And, if we go forward haphazardly from here without educational leaders trying to parse what we keep and don’t keep, then we are leaving innovation to chance.

Within every crisis there is an opportunity, and now is the time to rethink and to reset the post-pandemic world we will live in.

Not normal any time soon

I’m thrilled that Pfizer has results that their vaccine is very effective. I think it’s fantastic that there is at least one other company with equally positive results. This is great news. What it isn’t, is news that things will be back to normal soon.

Best case scenario as I see it, the vaccine will be out in March or April. Then the priorities of who gets one first will be very evident. Of course the elderly, immune deficient, and health support workers will be top of the list. But then comes the ugly truth: The rich, the famous, and the high profile sports athletes will be next. There will be a lot of negative news about this, but it’s the reality of the world we live in.

It will be the end of 2021 before widespread distribution is possible and we will be able to see what life after Covid-19 looks like at the start of 2022.

I’d like to be wrong, and want to see things happen faster, but I’m not holding my breath. 2021 will not be normal, we won’t know what that will look like for another year.

Until then, keep doing the things you need to do to be safe. Diligence in care for ourselves and our community is what the ‘current normal’ needs to be for a while longer.

We are not alone

I love this quote by Arthur C. Clarke:

“Sometimes I think we’re alone in the universe, and sometimes I think we’re not. In either case the idea is quite staggering.”

When I comprehend the size and scale of the universe, it is inconceivable to me that humans are the only intelligent life that seeks to understand and explore the stars and worlds beyond our own. It just seems staggeringly beyond possible that we could be alone in the universe.

I also think about Arthur C. Clarke’s 3 Laws. From Wikipedia:

British science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke formulated three adages that are known as Clarke’s three laws, of which the third law is the best known and most widely cited. They are part of his ideas in his extensive writings about the future.

These so-called laws are:

  1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

  2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.

  3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

His most famous of these is the 3rd one. Imagine being born 2000, 1000, 500, or even 150 years ago and being shown an iPhone or a self-driving Tesla. It would surely seem like magic or witchcraft.

I truly doubt that we will have any significant technology leap in my lifetime to see any meaningful human space travel beyond revisiting our moon. Our technology won’t get that magical so quickly. Therefore, if we were to meet aliens in my lifetime, it would be because they poses technology that seems magical to us.

So, at least in the short term, if we are visited, it will be from highly advanced aliens. I wonder what they would think of our divided, polluted planet? Would they see a primitive species? Which, if any, of our cultures would they look at and say, “I think they are on the right track”?

When I think of the idea that we are not alone, and that if we are visited, the visitors will be highly advanced compared to us, what would they say about how we treat each other? How we treat other species? And, how we treat our world?

Common Sense and Speculation

I was planning a long post to look at Covid-19 numbers and the pandemic. With global numbers around 1/2 a million new cases a day and 18-20% of those in the US, it is fairly obvious that the 2nd wave is clearly upon us. Some would argue that the second wave is worse than the first wave. I don’t think so, but I do think we are at a dangerous point where it could get worse.

I started taking screen shots and saving links to research, but I really don’t have it in me this Sunday afternoon to be writing a formal essay on Covid-19. If you want some supporting resources, here is a LinkTree to some great research from an epidemiologist.

The following is what has me concerned right now about the pandemic:

1. Of course the numbers now are worse than wave 1. During wave 1 people couldn’t get tested, there weren’t enough tests out there. A relative in California had covid in March and was sent home without a test. She isn’t a March/wave 1 statistic, as many hundreds of thousands were not, simply from a lack of testing. However, that doesn’t mean that the numbers now are good, and without effort to slow the spread, they will get worse.

2. Some people are easily fooled and manipulated. The idea that masks are either something political or something that infringes on personal rights is asinine. That people mix up being a good citizen with being a rule-following sheep is insulting to the human race. We have survived as tribes, and communities, and as a species because we are communal and support each other in times of need. We are in a time of need to cooperate and support each other.

3. There is only one way to achieve herd immunity that is morally acceptable and that is with a vaccine. Any other approach is a disregard for human life and for the most vulnerable people in our society.

4. We will need a large percentage of the population to get vaccinated. This won’t happen initially. I’m completely pro-vaccine. I’m booked for a flu shot. I will get a Covid-19 vaccine… but I’m not racing to get one that has been rushed to market without being properly tested.

5. Speculations: These are assumptions I’m making, unlike the things above that are based on facts, research and common sense, these are things that I believe will happen in the future. (Hopefully still based on common sense, but I could be wrong!)

A) We will have a safe vaccine in 6 months to a year. What that means is that we will be heading into 2022 before we have a grasp of how well we will come out from the shadow of this virus.

B) We will start to see some normalcy to our world in the middle of 2021 because rapid testing will be affordable and widespread. So things like travel can happen with 1-3 day quarantines rather than 14 days. Entire offices or schools could get tested and contact tracing will help reduce the spread. So, despite the vaccine taking more time to arrive, with proper efforts to protect ourselves and to be willingly tested, things will get better before widespread vaccine adoption.

C) Anti-vaccination and anti-mask groups will stop getting the over-glorified attention they don’t deserve, and they will diminish in size. I’m most likely to be wrong with this speculation if the current US president is re-elected, and his downplaying Covid-19 propaganda is permitted to continue.

D) Despite my optimism that anti-vaccine and anti-mask groups popularity will wane, I think we will struggle with: Conspiracy theories being confused for news; Fake news being so common and well presented that it will become harder to distinguish from real news; And, social media will continue to promote the spread of bad ideas for quite some time. We are going to witness an epic battle between Truth, fake news, censorship, and sensationalization that will leave everyone wondering where they can look to find any information that doesn’t need fact checking?

So, take a deep breath, and buckle up for another year of uncertainty. We need to recognize that nothing is going back to 2019’s version of normal for some time. That said, we need to support each other, do our part, keep our BS filters on high alert, and make smart choices as we head into the holiday season and the new year.

How long before ‘Un’school is the kind of school most kids choose?

This Hyderabad-based edtech startup aims to help students ‘un’school themselves

This is an example of disrupting higher education that I wrote about recently.

An affordable online learning ecosystem which provides a course, mentorship, projects, and guaranteed internship opportunities.

I’ve wanted to see opportunities like this at Inquiry Hub (at high school). Not for every kid, for kids that want it. But I also think that as we create these opportunities, more students will want it… if not in high school, certainly instead of an overpriced college education.

How is ‘un’schooling going to change the look of schools and universities in the future?

AI, Education, and Teachers

Have you ever had a medical scan? Have you looked at the scan afterwards? While it’s easy to look at an X-ray and see a broken bone, something like an MRI is much more difficult to read and interpret. And while an X-ray is a single shot at each angle, an MRI is numerous shots of the same angle in many layers. MRI’s create a massive amount of data for a technician or a doctor to look through. Already there are computers using Artificial Intelligence (AI) that are better than humans at finding anomalies that doctors would want to know about.

In education there are AI tools being developed that can make incredible diagnostic and pedagogical decisions to help a learner. An example is in Math: A student solves a math problem and gets the answer wrong. The AI looks at the error and recognizes it as a common mistake made by a certain percentage of students, and then suggests a tutorial (interactive) video that helps over 95% of students who make that error learn from their mistake. Just in time teaching based on responsive feedback from the learner.

AI can be a great teacher for computational thinking problems, teaching algorithms, and content-based information. If that’s all a teacher did, that teacher could be replaced. But that’s not all a teacher does! Algorithms can inform us of a real world problem, like climate change or air pollution, but they won’t necessarily help us solve these problems.

AI is decades away from being able teach us to be more collaborative, better citizens, or creative problem solvers. These skills are what teachers of the future will focus on. Let AI teach kids the basics of math, but then use that math to solve interesting problems – “The way to teach your kids to solve interesting problems…  is to give them interesting problems to solve.” ~ Seth Godin

We need to help students solve interesting and messy problems, we need to give them voice and choice, we need to help them develop their leadership and collaboration skills. We need to foster creativity, and allow students the opportunity to think outside the scope of questions that have a single answer.

If we don’t do these things in education, then not only are we going to give up our jobs to AI that can teach basic knowledge better than we can… we are also doing a disservice to our students, who deserve to learn skills that make them better, more useful, and adaptable citizens in an ever-changing world.

Decades behind where we should be

I have been on Alexa with my in-laws for over an hour trying to help them set up a wireless printer. We just got disconnected after they tried to take Alexa over to the router. This is way harder than it should be. It’s worse than trying to load disks and follow the instructions, so that I could access the internet through AOL… back in the late 80’s!

I just reconnected with my in-laws and they’ve had enough for the night. I’m not sure if they are truly done or if they just feel that they are taking too much of my time… they aren’t but I’m guessing that’s playing on their minds anyway.

Here’s the thing, none of this is easy and I’d probably struggle a bit even if I was there. It wasn’t just me trying to help them navigate a simple menu, it was a confusing set-up. The tiny keyboard gave limited buttons that my in-laws struggled with, having to hit the 1/2 button twice for 2 and the 3/4 button twice for the number 4. It’s a complicated 10-digit password on the wifi that is the default set-up. It’s the printer asking for a PIN rather than Wifi Password as the default, with PIN instructions buried somewhere in the tiny font instructions.

It’s not just this printer. I recently spent an hour and half helping my daughter switch to a new iPhone. I couldn’t load a purchased app on my TV to let it screen share easily from our Apple products. I spent about 30 minutes trying to sync two bluetooth speakers that have a ‘friendly’ app to help me.

How is it that in this day and age of connectivity, nothing likes talking to each other and every connection takes so much effort?

Economic mysteries

I don’t pretend to understand economics, but I’m beyond confused about what’s going on in the world? Countries are printing money like mad, but inflation is in check and so are interest rates.

It’s a seller’s market in real estate and price wars are happening. Family members got over asking price for a condo just north of Toronto. A friend of mine just got $100,000 over asking for a townhouse in Vancouver without inspection/conditions.

I understand why companies like Microsoft and Amazon have highly valued stocks, they have truly benefited from remote working/learning and lockdowns, but why is the whole stock market doing well, while retail companies and restaurants are laying off staff and imploding?

I’ve just tried a couple times to explain these patterns, but deleted each attempt. They are pure speculation on my part.

My fear? An eroding middle class and a world divided between the have’s and the have nots. Is this how it starts? It’s shocking how many people live paycheque to paycheque, and I’m not sure those numbers are getting better? Is this upside down and inflated economy going to last? And if it doesn’t, how will this effect the poor? The middle class?

I hope someone is paying attention and looking to the future, because I don’t think I’m the only one that sees this as a big, puzzling mystery.