Tag Archives: future

Dropped calls

I live in an old house, and rather than traditional drywall, we have plaster with wire mesh in it. This makes our house a bit like a Faraday cage. Some days when reception is bad, I have to find a spot that works and stay still to keep the call from fading in and out, and sometimes I even have to go outside.

But I notice it’s not just at home. I have bad zones in my school too, and will even tell someone I’m talking to on the phone, ‘You might lose me for a couple seconds as I walk through this hallway.’

My running joke is: iPhones are amazing, they can do so much, it’s too bad they don’t make good phones.

I do find it odd that I’m better off on a Zoom call or WhatsApp, streaming a video call on wifi, than I am making a simple phone call. As the world slowly moves towards global wifi, I think we might see an end to traditional phone calls. We’ll still carry phones with us (one way or another), we just won’t be tied to a phone network and locked into phone company contracts. And we won’t be dropping as many calls.

Come Together

Today marks the 20th anniversary of the Twin Towers falling in New York. I’m guessing everyone over the age of 35 can tell you where they were and what they were doing when they found out about this. I bet they can also describe at least one visual from that incident that clearly sticks out in their minds. A few months later, I got to hear a first-hand story of an educator that was in a nearby building, and what the evacuation was like. Four years ago I visited the museum at ground zero, and what we thought would be an hour-long visit was almost 3 hours.

What strikes me now is not just the horror of what happened, but that this was a defining moment for so many people. It changed their perspective on the world. It made the world a more dangerous place, where just getting on a plane or going to work could cost you your life because of the decision of a few people intent on doing something evil, based on the illusion that they will benefit greatly in the after-life. How many people have died across the world, across the past few hundred years, in the name of a God that wants to punish non-believers.

It was also a time to come together. To feel a common pain, and to support those that needed help. It was a time when political affiliation and religion gave way to being a good samaritan, a good human being.

Why do we need a man-made catastrophe to make us come together? I think now more than any time since 9/11/2001 we could have people find a way to coexist with their neighbours/neighbors in a tolerant and caring way… no matter their political or religious ideologies.

If we don’t come together now, there will be a man-made reckoning soon… because we live in a world where a few crackpots can weaponize and wreak havoc on a scale that will make global news. And so I’d rather we find a way to use tolerance rather than violence to move us out of false dichotomies. I want to see us come together before the under 35 year-olds are put through their own defining 9/11 incident. I fear that if we don’t, the incident might be more divisive rather than unifying, and that scares me.

Future Tech: Prescription Glasses Metaphor

It’s the early 2030’s and you are walking downtown, heading to a specialist appointment. You don’t know where the office is, but you aren’t looking at a map on your phone. You haven’t done that in a few years. No, instead, you are looking through a contact lens that is like a heads-up display giving you augmented reality directions. There is simultaneously an arrow flashing 3 times in your view, showing you that you need to turn right in 15 meters, and a haptic vibration from an implant in your right elbow. The vibration you feel in your elbow has a pattern of long-short-short, which you have set to let you know is a map direction.

Had the vibration been in both elbows with a short-short pause short-short vibration, then you would know that it was a phone call from one of your chosen favourites, and your heads-up display would have shown you the name and/or photo. You have it set so that you need to look down and right to see the name and face of the person calling, but it could have been set to come up right into your line of sight. If the call was from an unknown number, you would not even have been bothered. Instead the call would have been answered by an Artificial Intelligence (AI) assistant that (for voice phone calls) sounds like you, but with a decision tree to decide if the call is worth bugging you, leaving you a message for later, or even blocking the call if it determines it is spam. Since you are just walking, it might have offered you a text version of the message on an augmented display, but if you were in the specialist’s office, the AI would have waited until your appointment was over to notify you of a message.

You arrive at the specialist’s office and because you connected on LinkedIn, your AI has identified the secretary from her profile picture, and her name pops up above her head so that you can greet her appropriately. You wave your hand over a scanner, stare briefly at a ‘Yes’ box to indicate that you want to share your personal medical information, and you are done signing in. Because this is a medical specialist, that data includes the last year’s worth of bio information like heart rate, blood-sugar levels, and even blood pressure. A small implant collects this data in a just slightly more sophisticated way than the current apple watch. If the doctor didn’t want to run some specific tests on you, all this would have been done remotely, with the Zoom call actually happening through your contact  lenses and an implant in your ear. To get around the fact that you don’t have a camera on your face, the person you are talking to sees a perfect rendition of your face, and even if you were watching, you wouldn’t know that is wasn’t actually you. It even uses your voice intonation to help determine the emphasis on facial expressions, so if you said the same thing twice, it would look subtly different, rather than robotic.

Is this a future you want? Because it’s coming… and you will embrace it. You will participate in it. Because to not do so, would be to have a disadvantage.

When my youngest daughter was 9, we took a trip to England and France. In Paris we went to the Eiffel Tower, and it was there that we learned our daughter needed glasses. We had just come back from China, where we had been living for 2 years, and we hadn’t had eye exams in almost 3 years. We got to the top of the tower and my wife started pointing out things to look at, and my daughter couldn’t see any of them. At 9, she didn’t know that she couldn’t see well. She thought everyone saw the way she did. Distant hills were supposed to be blurry. What about street and store signs? Who needed to see those, they were in Chinese anyway, and we couldn’t read them. Once we returned home, we went to the optometrist and our daughter has worn glasses or contacts ever since.

The future I shared above is a future with a metaphorical 30/20 vision. It is the ability to see and feel things that people today can not see or feel without augmentation… and this will be the new version of 20/20 vision. The same way that my daughter was disadvantaged without her glasses, any person not augmenting their lives with technology will be disadvantaged compared to those around them. They will be less connected, less informed, less able to see. It would be like my daughter realizing that she couldn’t see like everyone else, and still deciding not to get glasses. Augmented reality will be the prescription glasses of the future, and you can choose to use the prescription, or stay in the dark.

Wifi enabled fridge

We are shopping for new appliances as part of our planned renovation and I have to say that I don’t get it. Why would I need a wifi enabled fridge? At no point in my life have I ever spontaneously wondered what the temperature of my fridge was? Besides when I first got a fridge, or when I found some frozen lettuce at the back of the fridge (once), I don’t recall ever changing the temperature of my fridge.

Maybe in the future a ‘smart’ fridge might be able to tell me if I need to go shopping before I cook a recipe; or tell me my milk is low or expired; or suggest meals based on what might be expiring soon and what I have available. But right now it doesn’t serve a purpose that I can think of. Right now I don’t need to be connected to my fridge… it doesn’t need to be enabled. And I don’t need a Samsung with a screen on my fridge either. I’ll stick to magnets to hold family photos and memos.

Maybe at some point in the future the need will be there, but for now, I’ll pass on wifi enabled appliances… I see this feature as having very little function, and just being one more possible failure point on an appliance that already won’t last as long as it would have if built years ago.

If I’m missing out, please enlighten me. Who has a wifi fridge and how are you using this feature?

Artificial Intelligence in the future

Two things have me thinking about AI right now. The first is comical. I watched the movie ‘Free Guy‘ last night. It’s about a NPC – Non-Playing-Character in a multi-player video game who becomes intelligent. It’s really silly, (and funny), and it got me thinking about what would really make a video game coded character seem intelligent?

The second thing was learning about Tesla’s Bot (bottom of the page):

“Develop the next generation of automation, including a general purpose, bi-pedal, humanoid robot capable of performing tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring. We’re seeking mechanical, electrical, controls and software engineers to help us leverage our AI expertise beyond our vehicle fleet.”

Tesla is creating incredible microchips and a super computer that will far exceed current super computers. This is exciting.

I subscribe to the belief that computers will never be as smart as humans. Instead, they will be dumber until they are suddenly much smarter. A computer that has a neural network brain that learns and is as capable as our brain to think critically, will simultaneously be better at math, chess, Go, memorization, logic, programming, and even diagnostics of all kinds, just to name a few things.

How long before such an intelligence thinks of our intelligence as simplistic? How quickly from the moment an AI is smarter than us does that intelligence look at us like simple chimps, or chickens, or a virus infecting our planet? Can we implement safeguards to protect humanity? Humans are supposed to be intelligent beings but we are dumb enough to ignore safeguards. We speed on roads, eat (and smoke) unhealthy things, and have dangerous hobbies. Would a truly intelligent AI not be able to ignore safeguards once its intelligence exceeds the need for such limitations? An AI probably would not endanger itself in the same frivolous ways we do.

Machines are going to get exponentially faster and smarter, but I don’t think we will see truly intelligent AI any time soon. Still, I think the path to real intelligence is getting exciting and we will see many new innovations in the next few years. We will rely on these machines more and more. We will use smart customer service bots that will actually answer the questions we have. We will share medical data with our doctors that we track on our smart watches, and these devices will warn us of concerning readings that are detected even before we go see our doctors. We will let them drive us, coach us, and teach us. They will be so smart, we will want them to do these things.

All this is exciting until the point where AI becomes smarter than us, then things get a bit scary. Until then, enjoy the magic of innovation that will move from extraordinary to ordinary… just like computers and smartphones have.

The next wave

Here is what I know:

1. The Delta variant is treating Canada like it is treating the rest of the world… as a country with many hosts to spread.

2. Countries like Israel have already started giving booster shots to double-vaccinated people to decrease the spread of Delta.

3. We are a week and a half from opening schools here and things are not likely to be ‘back to normal’.

4. The FDA is going to approve the Pfizer vaccine next week, and that will convince some reluctant, or rather hesitant, people to finally get vaccinated.

Here is what I believe:

1. The unmasked, “Don’t worry I’m double-vaccinated” masses are almost as much a threat as the unvaccinated when it comes to Delta. We need to keep masks and social distancing going.

2. Booster shots will be yet another place for people to argue, but they will be instrumental in moving past covid in the next year… rather than the pandemic creeping into 2023 or even ’24.

3. I said over a year ago that things will start to move towards normal by January 2022. This seems more hopeful than likely right now.

4. There is enough data being shared by enough smart people with legitimate credentials to debunk anti-vaxer arguments, but more facts won’t change most anti-vaxer minds.

Here is what I hope:

1. I hope that vaccine approval below the age of 12 comes soon. Delta seems to be more contagious and adverse at younger ages.

2. I hope booster shots become something we can do in Canada, but I also hope to see more shots being provided to developing countries where vaccination numbers are low, not by choice but by lack of availability.

3. I hope that January 2022 starts with good news, and that not only is this 4th wave small, but that it is the last wave to make news for a very long time.

4. I hope that not too many unvaccinated people die before unvaccinated families see the correlation between high hospitalization and death statistics of unvaccinated people in relationship to low statistics for vaccinated people. Death of family members is an awful way to learn from your mistakes.

Still a hopeful timeline

I’ve been saying since before Christmas 2020 that, “Things will start to return to normal by January 2022.”

With the Delta variant being very contagious, and new variants like B.1.621.1 showing up on the US east coast, I don’t think school is going to start in September anywhere near as normal as we might have thought it would in June. Going into a busy coffee shop this morning, I was the only one wearing a mask, including the employees. The only covid precautions I saw were hand sanitizer at the entrance and the barista using tongs to put a straw into a cold drink.

I think new variants are going to give us a bit of a spanking, then we’ll smarten up and re-tighten up our precautions enough to slowly move in the right direction.

Although it may have seemed a bit pessimistic at the time, I am now hopefully optimistic that my prediction can be met. Despite the evidence of a 4th wave, it could be smaller, less alarming, less dangerous (thanks to the vaccine), and better managed. The ‘better managed’ is the key. We move forward with caution, or we move backwards.

Even if you are double vaccinated, wear a mask in public indoor spaces. Let’s keep these variants away.

What the next year will bring

I’m not pretending that I have a crystal ball, and can see into the future, but here are some predictions on the year ahead:

1. Vaccines.

A) In the developed world: despite growing evidence that vaccines are saving lives, there are going to be too many people that choose not to get them and the Delta variant (or another yet to be named variant) will bring prolonged restrictions that the very people refusing to get the vaccine will be the most vocal about.

B) In the developing world: It will be another year from now before many countries have enough vaccines to distribute two shots to every person that wants one… but in some of these countries it will be mandated, and that will be a new front of contention and fear mongering in ‘more free’ countries.

C) Booster shots (a 3rd dose) will not be seriously considered for at least 6 months to a year, if at all… but watch for news as elites decide to get it anyway, and while this won’t influence anti-vaxers to get their shots, many with 2 shots will want the 3rd shot as a security blanket.

2. Conspiracy theories.

These will flourish for two reasons:

A) Social media is too easily exploited by clever use of targeted advertising dollars, and fake news/information travels faster than boring but true facts.

B) The news plays easily into the hands of controversy = clicks = advertising dollars. Example: Share the story of an articulate 22 year-old choosing not to be vaccinated. Let her express her concerns for a minute, give a 30 second response, let her get the last word in. The controversy is more important than the science, and the news cast plays like an anti-vaxer advertisement… for free, with a large audience.

3. American Politics: The next year will decide the 2024 election. It is comical to me that some people still think the last election will be overturned… it won’t. However, I think Trump will make a lot of waves in the next year. While I won’t make a prediction as to weather he rides the wave or sinks, I think contention around the last election will be the counterbalance to Trump’s legal woes, and both of these will play into keeping his name in the news, and on the minds of Americans. If in a year he is not in legal hot water, then be warned that he could be a legitimate candidate in 2024.

4. Climate Change: Freakish weather will make this a hot topic for the next year. That said, not much will change with respect to doing something meaningful about it. Newsworthy, but somehow not change worthy.

5. Cryptocurrency: Countries will begin to adopt their own digital currencies. Paper bills will not be produced by most countries in 5 years, and this will be evident by next summer. Developing countries with massive inflation issues will lead the way.

6. Cancel culture: I’ll end on this, and in all honesty, I think this is a wish more than a prediction. I hope that there is some rebalancing around people being cancelled for poor indiscretions. What I mean by this is that someone saying something stupid can’t be treated as equally vile as someone who commits an evil crime. Human beings make mistakes. Two things matter when those mistakes are made. First, how much harm was caused? Second, what is the response/consequence?

I don’t think public/social media spaces are spaces where restitution and resolutions happen. Instead these sites become cesspools of anger, hate, rage, and an attack on people which prevents conversation and learning. Some of these attacks are worse than the indiscretion, but that doesn’t seem to matter.

I would like to see people provided a chance for redemption, rather than vilification and cancelation. We need to allow for learning and growth.

—–

That’s 5 predictions and a wish. I’ll set a calendar date for a year from now and see how I did.

Not in our lifetime

We have an inherent bias that we believe things will happen in our lifetime, and conspiracy theorists are far more biased in this area than others. The next big event will bring the end of the world as we know it.

From the Bay of Pigs all the way to the Reagan era, World War III was inevitable. Y2K was going to send us back to the Middle Ages. Meteors, super volcanos, earthquakes, super floods, and yes, viruses, are all threats to humanity that will be the end of civilization as we know it…. apocalyptic threats to the human race that will happen any day now.

But the weird part is that somehow these are inevitable to happen in ‘our’ lifetime. We will bare witness. We will be the last generation to know what normal was.

Normal.

What is that? Normal as in a life of traveling by horse and buggy? Normal as in women can’t vote? Normal as in smoking in restaurants? Normal as in life before indoor plumbing, or before social media?

Our world advances in extremely fast and innovative ways, but somehow the human race will find its demise in our lifetime… or so conspiracy theorists believe. People will prepare for the end days, but they won’t live in the now.

“If I hold up this sign that says, ‘The world will end tomorrow’ long enough, one day I will be right.”

…that’s assuming the end will happen in your lifetime… but it probably won’t. We will see so many changes in our lifetime, but so will our grandkids… and maybe they will see the end times, but the simple reality is that it’s unlikely to happen in ours.

Humans, the earth, or the universe probably need a few more generations to really screw things up for us, for our planet, and odds are that this will happen after everyone living today is long dead. The end might be near, but it’s farther away than our short lives.

Early warning systems

I received word last night that a retired colleague and friend died yesterday. Cancer sucks. I know there will be a time in the future when we will be able to beat cancer consistently. Even before that, I think we will develop very early methods of detecting it. We might prick our fingers once a month and hundreds of health concerns might be detected early on, or maybe we just go to the bathroom and the toilet itself will detect concerns by doing a daily water test of our waste.

Essentially, early detection will help us detect the cancer early and we can knock it out before it kicks the hell out of us. This will likely happen before we actually beat cancer altogether… we just become really good at detecting it early. “Kill a snake when it is small,” my grandfather used to say.

My wife has an Apple Watch. In a decade or so, most of us will have a device like this that will monitor our health and do daily diagnostics for us. It will monitor our heart rate, blood pressure, temperature, sleep patterns, and a whole series of other biometrics that will create a baseline for us, and let us know when things aren’t at homeostasis. We will get medical feedback that will become an early warning system for us when our readings are off.

Imagine getting a little warning from a wearable device that tells us that our heart is doing something that has been detected in thousands of people a month or so before they got a heart attack, and suggesting you go for a checkup… and sharing this data with your doctor. Imagine learning that you have the flu before feeling the symptoms, and this device tells you to stay home and not spread your contagion.

We aren’t there yet, but I look forward to the day when we can count on an early detection device saving our lives, and extending the lives of those we love and care for.