Tag Archives: Omicron

The real numbers

In the last week and a half I’m aware of 18 people whom I personally know have caught covid-19, likely the Omicron variant. But of these 18, (half of which are 2 families), I think only one of them is reported. Others sat on 811 for more than 2 hours before giving up on the call. Others have mild symptoms, and here in BC they are asking people with mild symptoms not to get tested, because testing locations are being overwhelmed.

Extrapolating on these numbers, even if I overestimated the amount of cases in BC to be 1/3 reported (that would be 6/18 rather than 1/18), then the real number of new covid cases is a massive number.

This is surprisingly a good thing. First of all, our hospitals are not overwhelmed with serious cases. Secondly, at this rate of infection, we are moving quickly to heard immunity.

Well, that’s my hope anyway. I am only working with my own anecdotal evidence, and coronavirus has kicked my predictions in the butt more than once. Still, it’s good to look forward and see a little light at the end of the tunnel.

Maybe by spring everything will be open and masks will be optional. Maybe. Still, it feels good to have a little optimism right now. Even if we really don’t know the real numbers, I think they are looking good… Time will tell.

If or When?

I haven’t had any (known) close contact with Covid, but I’ve reached the point where it has touched or is touching so many people I know… I’m starting to wonder, is it a question of ‘if’ or ‘when’ it will reach our family?

Looking a year into the future, I can see the end of the ‘end’emic, with optional vaccines for a covid strain, just like optional flu vaccines today. There may even be a single Pan-Coronavirus “Super” Vaccine that truly ends this. But that’s in the far future, what lies ahead in the next 6 weeks?

I’m afraid my crystal ball gazing conjures no clear images of what’s to come in the short term. What’s my best guess? Businesses and maybe even schools closing from staffing shortages; Tougher restrictions in public (indoor) spaces; and a lot of people self-or-family isolating.

What’s my hope? Less and less hospitalization with more and more mild cases that look like a ‘regular’ flu.

Time will tell. I’m setting a calendar reminder to look back at this post in 6 weeks.