Don’t believe the hype

The open source DeepSeek AI model has been built my the Chinese for a few million dollars, and it seems this model works better than the multi-billion dollar paid version of Chat GPT (at about 1/20th the operating cost). If you watch the news hype, it’s all about how Nvidia and other tech companies have taken a huge financial hit as investors realize that they don’t ‘need’ the massive computing power they thought they did. However, to put this ‘massive hit’ into perspective let’s look at the biggest stock market loser yesterday, Nvidia.

Nvidia has lost 13.5% in the last month, most of which was lost yesterday.

However, if you zoom out and look at Nvidia’s stock price for the last year, they are still up 89.58%!

That’s right, this ‘devastating loss’ is actually a blip when you consider how much the stock has gone up in the last year, even when you include yesterday’s price ‘dive’. If you bought $1,000 of Nvidia stock a year ago, that stock would be worth $1,895.80 today.

Beyond that, the hype is that Nvidia won’t get the big orders they thought they would get, if an open source LLM (Large Language Model) is going to make efficient, affordable access to very intelligent AI, without the need for excessive computing power. But this market is so new, and there is so much growth potential. The cost of the technology is going down and luckily for Nvidia, they produce such superior chips that even if there is a slow down in demand, the demand will still be higher than their supply will allow.

I’m excited to try DeepSeek (I’ve tried signing up a few times but can’t get access yet). I’m excited that an open source model is doing so well, and want to see how it performs. I believe the hype that this model is both very good and affordable. But I don’t believe the hype that this is some sort of game-changing wake up call for the industry.

We are still moving towards AGI, Artificial General Intelligence, and ASI – Super Intelligence. Computing power will still be in high demand. Every robot being built now, and for decades to come, will need high powered chips to operate. DeepSeek has provided an opportunity for a small market correction but it’s not an innovation that will upturn the industry. This ‘devastating’ stock price losses the media is talking about is going to be an almost unnoticeable blip in stock prices when you look at the tech stock prices a year or 5 years from now.

It is easy to get lost in the hype, but zoom out and there will be hundreds of both little and big innovations that will cause fluctuations in stock market prices. This isn’t some major market correction. It’s not the downfall of companies like Nvidia and Open AI. Instead, it’s a blip in a fast-moving field that will see some amazing, and exciting, technological advances in the years to come… and that’s not just hype.

Propaganda machines

It is fascinating to see Americans on TikTok discuss their experiences on the app RedNote. The main things that they are surprised about are related to learning more about other cultures, (particularly the American and Chinese), and seeing how the ‘others’ live. The Americans are shocked by things like grocery prices and the fact that America is one of the only countries in the world where medical bills can bankrupt you.

I lived in China for 2 years. I saw the way that country has embraced a form of capitalism that is tiered to markets in a way that wouldn’t work in many other parts of the world. While there I could walk into an almost empty, expensive mall where the purchase of one item would pay the salary of the three employees in the store for the entire day. I could then walk out of the mall into an outdoor market where I could buy much cheaper but still good quality knockoffs of the same items in the expensive stores. And then in the back alleys less than a block away are the cheap buyer-beware knockoffs and trinkets where you can get affordable items for any budget, but the quality is very suspect and you need to be savvy about purchases.

But rich or poor, there are places for any Chinese citizen to find items they can afford. And while there is a definite hierarchical class structure, with ‘haves and have-nots’, the vast majority of the have-nots are way better off than a significant number of people here in the Western world that live below the poverty line.

The fascination I have watching these Americans is that they are, in rather large numbers, recognizing that other countries are not the only ones that spit out pro-national propaganda. They are seeing with their own eyes that they are being fed propaganda too… like this TikTok post of woman reading warm new year’s wishes from a Chinese friend she met online.

There are simple kindnesses to foreigners that me and my family received in China that were totally unexpected. For instance, a young couple exiting an elevator so that my family of 4 could fit, or asking for directions and having someone walk two blocks in the opposite direction to make sure we got where we wanted to go. I generally don’t see this kind of thoughtfulness to strangers here in the West.

China is a socialist country with some odd rules, but it’s also one of the most capitalistic countries I’ve ever visited. The people do the best they can within the governing rules of their society, just like most Americans. And people coming together on an app and learning about each others cultures are a way of breaking down propaganda barriers that are put up to villainize or to ‘other’ countries that are seen as economic enemies.

Here is another TikTok where a comment by a Chinese RedNote user is being read aloud, sharing his view of America after spending time getting to know them on the app. I’ve seen dozens of videos similar to the four I’ve shared here. Most of them are from shocked Americans realizing, for the first time, that they have been living under a façade of American exceptionalism.

In short, this Chinese run App is breaking down cultural biases and introducing a more global perspective between two cultures that have been fed miss-and-disinformation about each other. The propaganda machines are falling apart, and world views are becoming a little more worldly.

To Prove or Improve?

It was a simple question asked in a meeting of BC online schools.

“Are we using data to prove or to improve?”

Is it about accountability or improvement? What does the data teach us about our practice? How does it affect our future outcomes and where we focus our support and funding?

What is the real value of collecting data, and how is it best used to inform our practice?

The false AGI threshold

I think a very conservative prediction would be that we will see Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the next 5 years. In other words, there will be AI agents, working with recursive self-improvement, that will learn how to do new tasks outside the realm of its training, faster than a human could. But when this actually happens will be open for debate.

The reason for this is that there isn’t going to be some magical threshold that AGI suddenly passes, but rather a continuous moving of the bar that defines what AGI is. There will be a working definition of AGI that puts up an artificial threshold, then an AGI model will achieve that definition and experts will admit that this model surpasses that definition, but will still think the model lacks some sufficient skills or expected outputs to truly call it AGI.

And so over the next 5 years or so we will have far more sophisticated AI models, all doing things that today we would define as AGI but will not meet the newest definition. The thing is that these moving goal posts will not be adjusted incrementally but rather exponentially. What that means is that the newer definition of AGI is going to include significantly greater output expectations. Then looking back, we will be hard pressed to say “this model’ was the one or ‘this day’ was the day that we achieved AGI.

Sometime soon there will be an AI model put out into the world that will build its own AI agent that starts a billion dollar company without the aid of a human… but that might happen even before consensus that AGI has been achieved. There will be an AI agent that costs lives or endangers lives with its decisions made in the real world, but that too might happen before consensus that AGI has been achieved.

Because the goal posts will keep moving while the technology is on an exponential curve, we are not going to have a magic threshold day when AGI occurred. Instead, in less than 5 years, well before 2030, we are going to be looking back in amazement wondering when we passed the threshold? But make no mistake, that’s going to happen and we don’t have an on/off switch to stop it when it does. This is both exciting and scary.

‘unable to distinguish’

Carl Sagan wrote, ‘The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark’ in 1996, almost 30 years ago. When I read this quote from the book it really resonated with me. Carl Sagan saw what was coming.

“I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness…

The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance”

The line, “unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true”, seems to me the most chilling insight. It’s like gut instinct, a failing intuition, and biased sources of information all get weighed heavier than fact… and truth is a construct people create in their minds. The capital ‘T’ Truth seems to be constantly up for debate, and somehow a well researched theory loses validity when it is contrasted by conspiratorial ‘facts’ shared on social media with a little background, spooky mood music. As if these two sources of information deserve equal consideration.

Here’s a news flash… they don’t. And the fact that so many people are unable to distinguish the difference is both alarming and scary.

First Choice, or Last Resort

As the principal of our district online school I hear a lot of stories about kids not wanting to attend school anymore, and so they are looking to try online learning. A former, retired principal of a nearby online school, Brad Hutchinson, had a quote about this. He said that, “Online learning is a school of first choice and last resort.”

When a student takes an online course because they want to: they want to upgrade, or they want to create room in their school schedule for another elective, then our success rates are very good. When a student comes to us as a last resort because nothing else is working for them, our success rates are awful.

It’s so hard as a principal. Every time they come as a last resort they, or their parents, believe this is the best choice. But a kid who won’t attend school, or won’t do work for a teacher who is right in front of them, is very unlikely to do school for a teacher that is on the other end of an online course, and not in their faces reminding them of the work that needs to be done.

We try. We offer supports. We even occasionally see some initial results. Then we don’t see anything. Another powerful quote about online learning came from a former ministry employee, Tim Winkleman, and this is one that I say a lot, “No pace is not a pace.”

When nothing is being done, when students choose not to proceed, or feel they can’t, then that’s simply not progress. It’s hard to be a school of last resort where regular attendance is not expected. It’s hard to see students give up on trying when they feel like this is their last chance to find success in school. It’s also really hard to tell a kid or a parent who is desperate to avoid other school options that this is a bad option to try.

There have to be some better last resort options out there for kids who struggle to attend school regularly… I just don’t know what those options are?

Remembering Rest Days

I looked at my workout tracker yesterday and realized that I haven’t missed a day of exercise yet this year. While that’s great, it is important to recognize the importance of rest. Sure I don’t do long workouts, and I usually focus on a single muscle group after cardio, so my muscles do tend to get rest days in, (other than my legs for cardio). But there is something to be said about the value of a full rest day.

It’s a busy week and I’m getting up an hour later than usual. Today I give myself permission to take a well deserved rest day. And I need to remind myself not to wait this long to do it again. It’s easy to forget to take a day off when you’ve built a daily exercise habit. Instead of feeling like an important thing to do, it feels like cheating.

There is something really psychologically sound about internationally taking a full rest day. It’s medicine for the soul. There is a significant difference between choosing a rest day and slacking off; between being lazy and choosing to take a healthy break. But the framing of it (like o just did) is important. Because if I feel like I’m just slacking off then it feels more like a cop out than an important and valuable break.

It feels good to have such a healthy routine that I actually have to remind myself to take a break. That’s such an empowered frame of reference compared to having to convince myself to workout. And I know with full conviction that I’ll work out tomorrow. After all it has been over a year since I missed two days in a row.

But today I rest.

Definition of anger

Heard this a few days ago and it has stuck with me.

The definition of anger: An emotional punishment you give yourself for someone else’s behaviour.

Kinda makes my little road rage about someone not using their indicator feel a little stupid.

I think there are times when anger might be an appropriate response. But how many times is it just unnecessary self punishment? How often does it linger too long? How much mental energy is used to hold on to angry thoughts?

And who ultimately pays the price for being or staying angry?

Discovered versus Invented Math

Is Math discovered or invented?

The conclusion I come to is BOTH!*

This is an oversimplification but I think it makes the point:

There is no such thing as 1 divided by 2. I can have 1/2 of 2 apples, that’s what we would call discovered math. I have 2 apples, I spilt them into 2 groups of one, and give you 1, and I have one left. We can do this easily. But if I cut a single apple into halves, then I have invented Math. I can’t grow a half of an apple, and I can’t cut an apple perfectly into halves.

Another way to look at this is that if I take 7 equal length 1-foot rulers and put them in a straight line, I have a 7 foot length that is made up of 7 single units. However, if I decide to make this length a single unit and I divide it into 7 parts, 1/7=0.142857 repeating.

There is math that we have discovered because it is discoverable in nature, and then there is math that is invented to make sense of ideas that we invent, like fractions of a whole. Using the 7 units of 1 divided by 7, versus 7 divided by one, is a clear example of this. A perfect 1/2 of an apple is another.

But it’s a bit more complicated and confusing than this simple explanation. This doesn’t mean that any irrational number is necessarily invented. π (pi) is discoverable and not invented. The golden ratio, Φ (phi), is also discoverable. The square root of 2 on the hypotenuse of a 1×1 square is an invention we sought to make sense of an imaginary line dissecting a square.

So, some Math is discoverable and some math is invented (capitalization is my own emphasis).

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*Note: I’ve come to this conclusion through discussions with Joe Truss on the nature of our universe and the premise that ‘We Live in a Tetraverse’.