Tag Archives: crisis

The greatest threat to mankind

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I recently wrote about the Top Risks of 2024, which were in order of concern:

  • The United States versus itself
  • The Middle East on the brink
  • Partitioned Ukraine

Any of these three risks can have dire consequences on the stability of global politics, global trade, and global conflicts far beyond the borders of the mentioned countries.

These are imminent dangers that leave the rest of the world feeling like pawns on a chessboard filled with ‘other’ power pieces making all the strategic moves. But there is one danger on the geopolitical chessboard that I think will become the biggest threat we face when in the near future, and that’s the pawns themselves. Not the powerful pieces, but rather a rogue ‘nobody’.

While people fear Artificial Intelligence, and the rise of AI robots, what I fear is rogue humans using AI with harmful intent. The future will permit individuals with evil intentions to have too much power. It comes down to two well known adages: information is power, and power corrupts.

The problem isn’t a rogue leader, or a rogue country, it’s a rogue individual with too much information and too much power. A perfect example? See #5 on this article: ‘Why we’ll never actually destroy the last samples of smallpox’,

5) We could always recreate smallpox from genetic information

One could argue that in the information and genetics age, nothing really dies forever. It just dies until the technology to resurrect it appears. And for smallpox, that time is now.

The technology is here. And so is the necessary information: the complete DNA sequences of roughly 50 smallpox samples are available to the general public. This means that people could make smallpox in the lab. “Someone could if they wished recreate live virus from scratch just from that public information,”

We are less than a decade away from one intelligent crackpot, working in his or her (more likely an incel ‘his’) basement lab, creating or recreating a deadly virus and having it spread covid-19 style across the globe.

We are 15-20 years away from some crackpot scientist developing a nuclear bomb from parts and resources ordered online… without ever raising red flags to warn of his intentions.

The greatest threat to mankind isn’t wealthy people, politicians, and powerful countries, it’s one individual with malice in his heart and access to knowledge and information more power than anyone should ever have.

Top Risks 2024

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I’d never heard of Eurasia Group before a good friend of mine, an investor, shared the infographic below with me yesterday. According to their website,

In 1998, Ian Bremmer founded Eurasia Group, the first firm devoted exclusively to helping investors and business decision-makers understand the impact of politics on the risks and opportunities in foreign markets. Ian’s idea—to bring political science to the investment community and to corporate decision-makers—launched an industry and positioned Eurasia Group to become the world leader in political risk analysis and consulting.

According to their ‘Top Risks 2024‘ report:

2024. Politically it’s the Voldemort of years. The annus horribilis. The year that must not be named.

Three wars will dominate world affairs: Russia vs. Ukraine, now in its third year; Israel vs. Hamas, now in its third month; and the United States vs. itself, ready to kick off at any moment.

Russia-Ukraine … is getting worse. Ukraine now stands to lose significant international interest and support. For the United States in particular, it’s become a distant second (and increasingly third or lower) policy priority. Despite hundreds of thousands of casualties, millions of displaced people, and a murderous hatred for the Russian regime shared by nearly every Ukrainian that will define the national identity of tens of millions for decades. Which is leading to more desperation on the part of the Ukrainian government, while Vladimir Putin’s Russia remains fully isolated from the West. The conflict is more likely to escalate, and Ukraine is on a path to being partitioned.

Israel-Hamas … is getting worse. There’s no obvious way to end the fighting, and whatever the military outcome, a dramatic increase in radicalization is guaranteed. Of Israeli Jews, feeling themselves globally isolated and even hated after facing the worst violence against them since the Holocaust. Of Palestinians, facing what they consider a genocide, with no opportunities for peace and no prospects of escape. Deep political divisions over the conflict run throughout the Middle East and across over one billion people in the broader Muslim world, not to mention in the United States and Europe.

And then there’s the biggest challenge in 2024 … the United States versus itself. Fully one-third of the global population will go to the polls this year, but an unprecedentedly dysfunctional US election will be by far the most consequential for the world’s security, stability, and economic outlook. The outcome will affect the fate of 8 billion people, and only 160 million Americans will have a say in it, with the winner to be decided by just tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. The losing side—whether Democrats or Republicans—will consider the outcome illegitimate and be unprepared to accept it. The world’s most powerful country faces critical challenges to its core political institutions: free and fair elections, the peaceful transfer of power, and the checks and balances provided by the separation of powers. The political state of the union … is troubled indeed.

None of these three conflicts have adequate guardrails preventing them from getting worse. None have responsible leaders willing and able to fix, or at least clean up, the mess. Indeed, these leaders see their opponents (and their opponents’ supporters) as principal adversaries—“enemies of the people”—and are willing to use extralegal measures to ensure victory. Most problematically, none of the belligerents agree on what they’re fighting over.

Think about this, the Russia-Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas wars both take a back seat to the US election as the top risk of 2024. Both have no positive outcome in sight and they still don’t pose the same threat as a tight election result in the United States. I wish I could disagree, but I too see this as a genuine concern. What makes it worse is Risk #4 – Ungoverned AI, and specifically disinformation:

In a year when four billion people head to the polls, generative AI will be used by domestic and foreign actors—notably Russia—to influence electoral campaigns, stoke division, undermine trust in democracy, and sow political chaos on an unprecedented scale. Sharply divided Western societies, where voters increasingly access information from social media echo chambers, will be particularly vulnerable to manipulation. A crisis in global democracy is today more likely to be precipitated by AI-created and algorithm-driven disinformation than any other factor.

I want to explore the other risks as well, but by far my biggest concern for 2024 is the US election. My greatest fear is a close and contested election. The by-product of this would not just be tragic for the US, but for the entire world. I wish this was just hyperbole, but it’s not, and reading a report like this just magnifies concerns I already had. Buckle up, we are in for quite a ride in 2024.

You can get the full Top Risks 2024 white paper on their website, (or click the image below).

Come Together

Today marks the 20th anniversary of the Twin Towers falling in New York. I’m guessing everyone over the age of 35 can tell you where they were and what they were doing when they found out about this. I bet they can also describe at least one visual from that incident that clearly sticks out in their minds. A few months later, I got to hear a first-hand story of an educator that was in a nearby building, and what the evacuation was like. Four years ago I visited the museum at ground zero, and what we thought would be an hour-long visit was almost 3 hours.

What strikes me now is not just the horror of what happened, but that this was a defining moment for so many people. It changed their perspective on the world. It made the world a more dangerous place, where just getting on a plane or going to work could cost you your life because of the decision of a few people intent on doing something evil, based on the illusion that they will benefit greatly in the after-life. How many people have died across the world, across the past few hundred years, in the name of a God that wants to punish non-believers.

It was also a time to come together. To feel a common pain, and to support those that needed help. It was a time when political affiliation and religion gave way to being a good samaritan, a good human being.

Why do we need a man-made catastrophe to make us come together? I think now more than any time since 9/11/2001 we could have people find a way to coexist with their neighbours/neighbors in a tolerant and caring way… no matter their political or religious ideologies.

If we don’t come together now, there will be a man-made reckoning soon… because we live in a world where a few crackpots can weaponize and wreak havoc on a scale that will make global news. And so I’d rather we find a way to use tolerance rather than violence to move us out of false dichotomies. I want to see us come together before the under 35 year-olds are put through their own defining 9/11 incident. I fear that if we don’t, the incident might be more divisive rather than unifying, and that scares me.

The Great Reset or the Great Rethink?

I can’t believe how often good ideas get buried into conspiracy theories. See this article in the Nee York Times:

The baseless ‘Great Reset’ conspiracy theory rises again

A baseless conspiracy theory about the coronavirus has found new life as cases surge once again.

On Monday morning, the phrase “The Great Reset” trended with nearly 80,000 tweets, with most of the posts coming from familiar far-right internet personalities. The conspiracy alleges that a cabal of elites has long planned for the pandemic so that they could use it to impose their global economic control on the masses…

The article then shared this tweet:


Now, moving away from crackpots that spread the idea of some ruling cabal planning to use the pandemic to bring in a socialist and controlling government to strip you of rights and freedoms… there are actually some very smart people looking for the opportunity in this crisis.

These wise thinkers and leaders are trying to rethink some of the idiocy of our pre-covid world, and take this opportunity to do a reset of some sort. That’s not a conspiracy, that’s leadership.

Check out this World Economic Forum happening now: weforum.org.

What’s on the agenda?

Sustainable production: Almost 50% of the world’s energy consumption and 20% of greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to the manufacturing sector. How can we accelerate sustainable production and make it a competitive advantage? 

New digital business models: While much of the physical world came to a standstill during the global pandemic, digital connectivity soared. How can new digital business models help companies provide value and build resilience? 

Urban infrastructure and services: Many cities face serious obstacles to providing basic services, and COVID-19 has made it even more difficult. How can urban innovations help cities improve quality of life, resilience and sustainability?

Keeping populations healthy: The pandemic has revealed the need to strengthen health systems and ensure that populations have better information and control over their health. How can technologies help to improve and maintain healthier lives? 

Financial innovation: New financial technologies are shaping how services are provided around the world. How can we ensure that they are accessible and deliver greater value and efficiency to all parts of society?

Frontier technologies: Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain and synthetic biology, are heralding a global transformation. How can we create, scale-up and govern these technologies so they “do no harm” while delivering the value we need? 

New work models: New work models are essential to address the challenges created by a transforming labour market, new skillset requirements and globally connected technology-driven industries. How can we ensure that employees are able to keep up with the evolving demand for skills and have the opportunity to contribute purposefully to the workplace of the future?

Imagine that: smart people getting together to ask meaningful questions about how our world could be a better place! Of course some of the solutions will be ‘out there’, big audacious (and to some, scary) ideas. But I want to live in a world where people challenge themselves to rethink what’s not working and use times like this to reset how we do things. The fact that some people are afraid of change shouldn’t generate fear-mongering and stop us from making thoughtful progress during challenging times.

For example, as an educator I’ve seen remote learning catapult the use of technology in classrooms and many great educators are rethinking the way they interact with students, and the way they get students to interact with each other. If the pandemic ends and we just go back to the way things were before, we are missing out on using some valuable lessons learned. And, if we go forward haphazardly from here without educational leaders trying to parse what we keep and don’t keep, then we are leaving innovation to chance.

Within every crisis there is an opportunity, and now is the time to rethink and to reset the post-pandemic world we will live in.

Fair weather leadership

We’ve all seen movies where the captain of a boat or a sheriff in a town (who aren’t the stars of the movies) appear to be doing a good job, and everything is going smoothly. Then the crisis hits, the boat starts to sink or the bad guys ride into town, and suddenly chaos ensues. The captain abandons the ship before the passengers and the sheriff either cowers or puts his life on the line recklessly leaving the town at the mercy of the bad guys.

In the movies, the hero emerges or arrives and saves the day. In the real world, these good in fair weather leaders create chaos and upset, and undermine the productivity and well being of their team, and possibly other teams around them. There isn’t always a hero standing by to help.

It’s often difficult or impossible to foresee a crisis. In the case of a sinking boat, there are drills that can be run, but they aren’t ever run when the boat is bouncing up and down in a storm. Some things can be planned for, but others come out of nowhere… like an iceberg in the fog. When a surprise comes along, that’s actually when leadership matters. That’s when lines of communication matter. That’s when people management becomes a priority. Who can help lead? Who needs direct instruction? What can be delegated rather than added to an impossible to-do list. And who can be asked for help?

It’s when a crisis hits that a leader needs to get the most out of their team. Often we think of crisis situations as making a leader great, but my thoughts align more with this quote:

“Great occasions do not make heroes or cowards; they simply unveil them to our eyes. Silently and imperceptibly, as we wake or sleep, we grow strong or weak; and at last some crisis shows what we have become.” ~ Brooke Foss Westcott

Good leadership during the fair weather, before the storm, is preparation for when the storm hits… even if that leadership isn’t recognized as anything special. Not leading well, not pushing the team, when things are calm, may not harm the team during that calm, but it prepares no one for when things get rough.

Leading well in fair weather doesn’t bring much accolades, and may not bring recognition, but it is preparation for good leadership when leadership really matters.

Uncertainty as the new norm

When people make goals, they often ask themselves or are asked by others coaching them, “Where do you see yourself in 5 years?” I can pretty much guarantee that anyone asked where they saw themselves in five years, back in 2015, was pretty much wrong. Every. Single. One. I made light of this idea with a fun post ‘Truth is Stranger than Fiction‘, back in April.

Now I’m looking at the same thing in a different light. It’s one thing to understand how hard it is to visualize where we will be in 5 years, yet another when we don’t have any idea where we will be in the next couple months? Schools ‘re-open’ in September and our province has said that we won’t know what ‘open’ means until the middle of August. We could be completely open, mostly open, partially open, or fully teaching from a distance. My guess is that learning will be blended, but by how much, I honestly don’t have a clue? Are students only coming in once a week or twice a week? Will students have an option to stay home and still expect teachers to work with them? Will teachers report to school every day? I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know.

Will there be a second wave of Covid-19 in Canada? Will the virus mutate significantly? Has it already done so? Will the virus be an issue right into 2022? Will there be a vaccine, or will we manage/mitigate the spread or impact in some other way? Will the borders to the US re-open soon? Will there be a major recession? Will Covid-19 be with us for years to come like flus that return every winter? I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know.

I’m used to people asking me questions and giving them answers. I am usually someone that is ‘in the know’, but this virus has humbled me. It has made me far less certain about where things are going next. Ambiguity is the norm now. So is uncertainty.

Within every crisis lies an opportunity. Our perspective has a huge role to play in this. When we are stuck thinking ‘woe is me‘, well then a crisis is a crises. When we recognize that ‘stuff happens‘ and that stuff is separate from how we respond to it, then we can start to see the opportunities.

How can we support local businesses? How can we help the needy in our communities?

What can we do to meaningfully engage students in classes from a distance? How can we leverage the right tools so that when ‘learning from home’  students get more voice and choice in the work that they are doing? How can we make the student experience seamless as we bounce between varying amounts of time students spend at school vs home? How do we meaningfully build community without having our students spend much, if any, time together? …At least for these questions I have a few ideas.

The new school year will bring many challenges, and with those challenges we will also have opportunities. Opportunities to challenge the status quo, and to do things differently. I won’t pretend that I know what’s in store. I understand that there is a lot of uncertainty ahead. Uncertainty is the new norm, and we’ll just have to get used to this.

The quick answer isn’t always the best answer

Tomorrow marks the first day back from March break in our school district. Teachers will not be returning Monday/Tuesday, and can schedule a time to come in to collect resources etc. after that. The continuation of learning plan will evolve over the week in response to schools being closed to students due to COVID-19.

I know that students and families want to know what things will look like after that, but no one is rushing to give answers, and for good reason… This is all very new to us and our approach moving forward deserves thoughtful planning.

We need to consider:

  • Ministry expectations and requirements
  • District plans and protocols
  • Capabilities of staff & technology
  • Capabilities and needs of students and families
  • Fairness with respect to expectations across the district and province.

This last point is interesting. At one my schools, Inquiry Hub, we could almost run everything the same. Every class already has shared digital spaces. We could have students meet on Microsoft Teams during class time and students are only in class 40-60% of their day, so they could still have large parts of the day to do school work, and inquiry projects, and have free time. But how fair is it for us to expect this of them at home, when no other school is expecting this? How fair is it when we don’t know how equitable home situations and supports are?

We need to go slowly. We need to ask a lot of questions. We need to think about expectations at the provincial, district, school, and home levels.

A quick response will not be as good as a slow, thoughtful response. The pandemic has everyone thinking in ’emergency response mode’. What we need now is long term thinking and planning. We can’t treat a continuation of schooling like we are in a constant crisis with immediate response time required. We have to remember that the school year ends at the end of June, and quick responses now, without thinking and processing time, will not help us get to the end of June in a thoughtful and supportive way. We need to slow things down, think things through, and put the long term well-being of our students first.