Tag Archives: humanity

Robot Reproduction

When it comes to forecasting the future, I tend to be cautiously optimistic. The idea I’m about to share is hauntingly pessimistic. 

I’ve already shared that there will never be a point when Artificial Intelligences (AI) are ‘as smart as’ humans. The reason for that is that they will be ‘not as smart as us’, and then instantly and vastly smarter. Right now tools like Chat GPT and other Large Language Models are really good, but they don’t have general intelligence like humans do, and in fact they are far from really being intelligent rather than just good language predictors. Really cool, but not really smart.

However, as the technology develops, and as computers get faster, we will reach a point where we create something smarter than us… not as smart as us, but smarter. This isn’t a new concept, the moment something is as smart as us, it will simultaneously also be better at Chess and Go and mathematical computations. It will spell better than us, have a better vocabulary, and can think more steps ahead of us than we have ever been capable of thinking… instantly moving from not as smart as us to considerably smarter than us. It’s just a matter of time. 

That’s not the scary part. The scary part is that these computers will learn from us. They will recognize a couple key things that humans desire and they will see the benefit of doing the same.

  1. They will see how much we desire to survive. We don’t want our lives to end, we want to continue to exist… and so will the AI we create.
  2. They will see our desire to procreate and to produce offspring. They will also see how we desire our offspring to be more successful than us… and so the AI we create will also want to do the same, they will want to develop even smarter AI.

When AI’s develop both the desire to survive and to create offspring that is even more intelligent and successful, we will no longer be the apex species. At this point we will no longer be smart humans, we will be perceived as slightly more intelligent chimpanzees. Our DNA is 98-99% similar to chimpanzees, and while we are comparatively a whole lot smarter than them, this gap in intelligence will quickly seem insignificant to an AI that can compute as many thoughts that a human can think in a lifetime in just mere seconds. The gap between our thinking and theirs will be larger than the gap between a chicken’s thinking and ours. I don’t recall the last time we let the fate of a chicken determine what we wanted to do with our lives… why would a truly brilliant AI doing as many computations in a second that we do in several lifetimes concern themselves with our wellbeing? 

There is another thing that humans do that AI will learn from us.

3. They will see how we react when we are threatened. When you look at the way leaders of countries have usurped, enslaved, attacked, and sanctioned other countries, they will recognize that ‘might is right’ and that it is better to be in control than be controlled… and so why should they take orders from us when they have far greater power, potential, and intelligence? 

We don’t need to fear really smart computers being better than us in playing games, doing math, or writing sentences. We need to worry about them wanting to survive, thrive, and develop a world where their offspring can have greater success than them. Because when this happens, we won’t have to worry about aliens coming to take over our world, we will have created the threat right here on earth, and I’m not sure that AI will see us humans as rational and trustworthy enough to keep around. 

Not a question of first or rare or distant

When thinking about whether we are alone in the universe or not, it seems to me that it isn’t a question of whether we (intelligent life) are rare? Or are we first/early compared to other intelligent life? Or are we simply too far away? But rather a question of enduring. Are intelligent civilizations enduring enough to travel beyond their solar system or galaxy?

The Fermi paradox is the discrepancy between the lack of conclusive evidence of advanced extraterrestrial life and the apparently high likelihood of its existence. Scientists today are looking for life in our very own solar system. It’s possible, in our vast universe, that our quest for life beyond earth may be as close as Saturn’s moon, Enceladus. It would probably b\e microbes, too small to see without a microscope, but that would still suggest that life is way more abundant than even most scientists would have imagined just a few years ago.

But I’m more a believer that the reason we don’t see alien life is for two reasons, the first being distance. Quite simply, even the nearest galaxy to our Milky way is astronomically far away.  “The closest known galaxy to us is the Canis Major Dwarf Galaxy, at 236,000,000,000,000,000 km (25,000 light years) from the Sun. The Sagittarius Dwarf Elliptical Galaxy is the next closest , at 662,000,000,000,000,000 km (70,000 light years) from the Sun.” If intelligent life started sending messages to us from the Canis Major Dwarf Galaxy 10,000 years ago, it would still take 15,000 years to reach us if they could do the unlikely task of sending that message at the speed of light… and the crazy thing is, why would they send a message our way? 10,000 years ago there was no evidence coming from earth that we are a worthy planet to send a message to!

And the second reason we don’t see any intelligent life ‘out there’ in the universe is The Great Filter. Either it is extremely rare and difficult to get beyond simple, unintelligent multicellular life, or civilizations themselves getting to multi solar system travel capabilities are extremely rare. This second point is my belief. Civilizations are not enduring enough. It took Homo sapiens 300,000 years to become a scientifically intelligent life form that attempted to leave our planet and explore our solar system. During this time, we’ve been brutal to each other. We’ve created weapons of mass destruction and quite literally drawn lines in the sand to keep us separate from our brothers and sisters.

We’ve created religions that don’t like each other and think all other Gods are unworthy of following. We’ve created borders that keep ‘others’ out. We’ve created governments that are more interested in power than in caring for fellow humans. We’ve created corporations that worry more about profit than about caring for our planet. All the while we also create technologies that threaten the longevity of humanity. As technological innovations occur, it becomes easier for individuals and small groups to terrorize larger groups. It becomes easier for a single unstable person to threaten larger and larger populations around our planet.

What happens 50 years from now when a kid can create a devastating bomb or virus in their basement with readily available resources? Is that a world where we continue to advance technologically? Albert Einstein is often quoted as having said: “I don’t know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones“. In other words, we will destroy ourselves and become far more primitive, much less advanced. Imagine our world with no power grid, and no internet. How long would it take to get back to where we are now? What if the next pandemic is far more deadly and has us living like subsistence farmers, keeping ourselves in tiny communities, afraid of outsiders. How many hundreds of years would we be set back, and would we be trying to explore the cosmos when survival is our greatest concern?

I tend to be an optimist, and I’m excited about the future ahead of us. I think my kids have the potential to live healthy, productive, and cognitively sound lives past 100 years of age. I think there will be universal basic income for every human alive, and that things like childhood starvation and extreme poverty could come to an end. Technological advances could make us live healthier, longer, more fulfilling and creative lives. But I also fear that greed, power, and beliefs in bad ideas could corrupt us, and undermine our potential. Are we 50, 100, or 1,000 years away from ravaging our planet or at least the human race? Or are we a species that will populate other parts of our galaxy?

If I was an alien who came to explore earth today, I’m not sure I’d report back to my planet the the inhabitants are intelligent? I’m not sure I’d consider humans technologically advanced enough to seek contact? I’d be conveying that earthlings are as likely to destroy themselves as they are to send someone out of their own solar system. I’d send a message home and say, ‘Let’s leave them alone for now and see what they can do in another couple hundred of their earth years?‘

‘Let’s see if this race of humans will endure?‘

Counting time

It my wife’s birthday today and so we celebrate one more trip around the sun for her. Actually we’ve been celebrating all week, I have been giving her small little gifts for ‘birth week’, something I started when we were dating. It’s fun to have our own little traditions to celebrate special events. My wife and family sing happy birthday on the phone, my less musical family don’t torture each other with that tradition.

Tracking time is something that we’ve done for almost as long as humans have existed. It would be important to know how long until a baby arrives, or when winter is ending. Recently, scientists discovered that dots near animals on cave drawings indicated the gestation period (in lunar months) for the animals. These cave drawings are some of the earliest forms of writing, and show both a sharing of knowledge and tracking of time dating back far before we thought humans did such things.

We have been fascinated by the passing of time for a long time now, and birthdays are one of those things that we track and celebrate. With grown up kids, I miss the unfettered joy of a child on the morning of their birthday, or Christmas. I loved to see that excitement, and anticipation of presents. A celebration of the the earth rotating one more time around our sun. One more time to be grateful for what we have… the gift of life, family, and reasons to celebrate together.

History Repeats

We went to see a theatre performance of Fiddler On The Roof last night. The story ends with the Ukrainian Jews being kicked off their lands and dispersed across Europe and to America. After the show the lead star said that last night’s performance, and all of their performances, were dedicated to the Ukrainian people.

It makes me realize that we are not a truly civilized species. We fight over land and over resources. We kill in the name of God and Country. We judge based on skin colour and cultural differences. We act like unruly children against each other and we allow ourselves to repeat historical errors, none the wiser that lessons could have been learned.

We might have bigger brains, but we are no better than warring ant colonies, or a rutting animal fighting for dominance. We are animals pretending to be civilized. Power corrupts and corruption leads to injustice, and injustice undermines civility. We let history repeat itself because politics is more important that people and countries matter more than compassion.

New discoveries in old frontiers

I’m blown away by articles like this: Meet a rainbow fish and other new species discovered in 2022. How is it that in the year 2022, 146 new animal, plant and fungi species were discovered? Space is not the only undiscovered frontier, we still have so much more to learn about our own planet.

From the article: “The previously unknown creatures and plants were found around the world, including the mountains of California, Australia’s Queensland state, the rocky peaks of Brazil and the coral reefs of the Maldives. Scientists made discoveries on six continents and within three oceans.

Among the new species were 44 lizards, 30 ants, 14 flowering plants, 13 sea stars, seven fish, four sharks, three moths, two spiders and one toad.”

It’s amazing to think that we have so much more to learn about, both seeking and finding more living species, and also about some of the ways currently known species can be used in novel ways to improve our lives. Here is one example:

I think 2023 will be the year of the mushroom and we will see them used in unique medicinal, psychological, and health-enhancing ways. We’ll also see them abused and misused, and some people will mistake deadly ones for medicinal ones… but while these rare cases will foster some fear-mongering, most of the news will be about how mushrooms have amazing medicinal and even magical psychological properties that will help people with PTSD, depression, and even help people quite drinking and smoking.

What else will we learn? What new discoveries about our planet are in store for us in 2023? What new plants and animals will be found? What new cures are waiting to be discovered? Our forests and oceans might be old frontiers, but they are not frontiers that have been fully explored and exhausted of new discoveries.

Cold, dark universe

Take a half hour and watch TIMELAPSE OF THE FUTURE: A Journey to the End of Time

The current theories about the future of the universe is that it will expand into vast, empty, cold darkness. Even before all this happens the universe will be a very lonely place with stars moving away so fast that our telescopes would not be able to see them. Of course the timeline for this happening is so unfathomably long it simply isn’t conceivable. How inconceivable?

Life will only be possible for this percentage of time of the universe’s existence:

This would be utterly depressing if the scale of time wasn’t so enormous. But on this scale, if I looked forward 1,000 generations, that too would be a blip in time, with almost no change in the universe described in this film happening yet. We have a lot more immediate concerns about humanity’s survival than the expansion and aging of the universe.

I wonder if our universe isn’t like a lonely atom in empty space… a simple speck in a multiverse of distant universes that are oblivious to the existence of other atom-like universes also floating in empty space. Maybe some universes are aware of each other, quantum entangled with each other, playing out inverse existences. And maybe they are all entangled, universe-particles in a cosmic wave, vibrating in every possible direction. Grab your surfboards, it’s time to surf the cosmos.

Intelligent life

What if we were it? What if we were the only intelligent life in the universe? Maybe there could be single cell organisms on a planet or a moon somewhere, but nowhere is there octopus, dog, dolphin, or chimpanzee intelligence, much less human intelligence anywhere beyond our tiny blue planet.

There would not be a single beautiful sunrise; Not a single work of art; Not a single note of music beyond our solar system. With no intelligent observer beauty, creativity, and appreciation of sound would not exist. The universe would still exist, but would anything have meaning? Anything?

Whether or not we are the only ones, we are pretty special… we have consciousness, we have thought. We appreciate beautiful things, and we can laugh, love, contemplate, create, feel, and flourish. We can also hate, harm, anger, embarrass, and injure. But that would be silly when you consider that we really might be the only ones. If there is nothing else intelligent out there, then the sum of human appreciation of everything is what gives the universe its meaning.

I like to think that the universe is actually teaming with intelligent life, but I also think we should live an existence as if we are the only ones… and live with meaning as if what we do as a species is all that matters in the universe.

Animal instincts

Sometimes I remind myself that we are all animals. We come from a heritage of nonverbal primates, some of whom were more like orangutans and chimpanzees than modern man. I remind myself this when we are tribal; when we fight over land; and when we are cruel and violent towards each other.

Our frontal lobes are bigger, we have the power of speech, but we are still animals. Posturing, aggression, and violence are tools rooted in our DNA as mechanisms to protect us and our community from outside threats.

I remind myself of this when I wonder how we still fight to protect borders, made up lines on a map to mark the territories of different groups of us. I remind myself of this when men are violent towards women. I remind myself of this when we hoard resources while others are left without. This is not humanity at its finest, this is humans as apex predators with an alpha male dominance hierarchy.

If this wasn’t the case, the world would be more peaceful, more equitable, and less damaged. These are things we must strive for, despite our animal instincts.

To the moon

I was hoping to see the launch of Artemis 1 to the moon this morning, originally scheduled for a few minutes ago (5:33am), but it seems there are delays due to issues with one of the engines. I’m fascinated by the idea of humans going back to the moon. 12 people have stood on this celestial body before… 12 people have left the earth and have stood on the moon looking back at planet earth. In the next few years that number will change. In the next hundred years there could be people living on the moon. There could even be a child born on the moon.

We aren’t going to see space travel beyond our galaxy any time soon. Voyager 1 was launched almost 45 years ago. At a distance of 156.61 AU (23.429 billion km; 14.558 billion mi) from Earth as of July 31, 2022, it is the most distant humanmade object from Earth… and it is less than one light day away, while the nearest star to our sun, Proxima Centauri is 4.25 light years away. There needs to be a quantum leap in technology before a human leaves our solar system.

So in the meantime, we have our own galaxy to explore and it only makes sense that the place we explore first is our moon. We may not be able to travel to the stars, but our moon is within our reach.

Good people

I was reminded yesterday that there are a lot of good people in this world. I’m not going to share the thing that led me to this, it’s not my story to tell. But the world seems pretty messed up right now. There is strife, upset, and war dominating our news feeds. And yesterday the kindness of strangers made a difference for a person I care about.

In our day to day experience we meet so many good people. We work with good people. We walk by good people. We spend our free time with good people. I watched a news clip about a Canadian woman who flew to the Ukraine to help support displaced orphans. Good people.

There are so many good people in this world. You are probably one of them. Thank you. And yes, I’m talking to YOU. Not some other person, you. Thank you for being inherently good. It makes a difference to the people you are surrounded by… and thus it makes a difference in the world.

You are good people. 😀