Tag Archives: future

The future is now

I’ve shared Chat GPT a couple times (1, 2), and I really think that tools like this are going to create a massive shift in jobs, education, and creativity. It can been seen as both scary and exciting.

On another front, scientists have achieved ‘ignition’ in a nuclear fusion test. This is the creation of a fusion reaction where the energy output is greater than the energy input. For over a decade this was an unachievable goal, any reaction created required so much energy to produce that the costs were greater than the returns.

If you showed someone from 1995 the technology we had 25 years later in 2020, they would be impressed and amazed. I’m reminded of Arthur C. Clarke’s quote, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” But what I’m seeing right now seems like magic.

I think the leaps in technology and ingenuity that will happen in the next 25 years will so far exceed what we saw happen in the last 25 years that it will feel more like we are 50 years in the future rather than just 25. So, buckle up and get ready for a wild ride into the future… it’s just getting started now!

Language barrier

When we lived in China we lived in ‘a small city of 6 million’, Dalian, on a peninsula on the east coast. It was not unusual for my family to hear no English spoken by anyone except us from the time we left our Canadian curriculum foreign national school on Friday until we went back to school on Monday. We couldn’t go to a restaurant unless the menu had pictures. And if you were in a store and didn’t see what you were looking for, a game of charades ensued with hand gestures and singular Chinese words coming from us rather than sentences.

Google Translate was fairly new and most Asian languages were not well translated, especially Chinese. I remember going to a grocery store to buy baking soda for my wife. I put the 2 words into Google Translate and got two Chinese characters. But on the shelf were 6 or 7 different items with some having the first character and some having something very similar to the second character, and none having both.

I asked for help and the employee couldn’t help me. She asked a coworker, and she couldn’t help me either. I was stuck. I finally bought a plastic back with a white powder that looked like baking soda and on my way home I realized that the cost of this item was less than 50 cents Canadian, and had I bought all 5 of the most likely items, it would have cost me under $3. That would have saved me 30 minutes and a lot of frustration.

Now things have changed significantly. Language translation is so much easier. People can have full-on conversations with Google or an app translating voice to text and/or voice almost instantaneously. These tools will even correct themselves when the context of the sentence is recognized. For instance, I think ‘baking’ and ‘soda’ were two words that were translated for me independently, and so the words were loosely translated to ‘cooking in the oven’ and ‘bubbly drink’. Now translators know that these words next to each other mean something different than when the words are used in a different context.

All this to say that the days of language being a major barrier to basic communication are over. I can think of a lot of frustrating conversations and miscommunications I had in my 2 years of living in China that would not have happened if we went now rather than over a decade ago. I think of the conversations I wanted to have but couldn’t. I think of the questions I had that were just left unanswered.

Sure there were a few magical moments where we overcame the language barrier and made special connections, but these moments pale in comparison to what we could have said and done with the tools available today. While I hold some nostalgia about the way things were for us back then, I think I’d still prefer it if we had the language conversion tools of today back then.

Convenience at a cost

Yesterday I went to the Apple Store and purchased a new computer. I knew what I wanted but was talked into buying the larger version which came standard with the upgrade I was getting with the smaller one. The price difference happened to be the same as my educator’s discount but it did cost me a bit more for memory differences between the two sizes. Still, I left the store really happy, and excited about the added screen real estate. All said and done, the whole exchange took less than 20 minutes.

If that was the kind of exchange between the sales clerk and myself that I received at all stores, I’d probably shop in stores more often. But most exchanges end up being like my Canadian Tire experience, and this makes me not want to shop. So I do most of my shopping online. I order from the convenience of my home and the products arrive at my home. I am my own sales clerk. I don’t need any shopping bags at the till.

While grocery stores, and hair salons, and pharmacies will probably survive over the next 20 years, I’m not sure how many retail stores are going to survive when more and more people choose to shop online? Walking in the mall last night I looked at a few stores and wondered how much profit they could possibly make after paying for rent, power, and staff. Then I wondered what our economy would be like without these jobs, if most retail stores no longer needed all their staff?

Shopping from home is really convenient, but it will change the way our shopping malls and plazas look. Maybe the cost of this convenience will be far greater than the convenience is worth.

Teaching in an era of AI

Yesterday I wrote about Next level artificial intelligence and since then I’ve learned quite a bit about ChatGPT capabilities. It’s an amazing tool and people are catching on, with over 1 million users trying it out in just 6 days. The implications for teaching are huge. Students can use this AI to have original work created for them that will not show up in a Google search if a teacher suspects plagiarism.

For years now I’ve heard the mantra that teachers need to ask questions that you can’t find the answer to on Google. But those questions could be uniquely answered by Chat GPT with no way of a teacher knowing it wasn’t done by a student… other than the fact that the writing might be of a higher quality than usual.

I don’t see Chat GPT completely doing all the work, but it will be a tool students use to build on. For instance, I asked this AI to do the following:

Write a 5 paragraph essay that compares and contrasts Winston Smith in George Orwell’s novel 1984 with Bernard Marx in Aldous Huxley’s novel Brave New World.

This is what it came up with in about 5 seconds:

Winston Smith and Bernard Marx are both characters in dystopian novels, but they have some significant differences. In George Orwell’s 1984, Winston is a rebellious member of a totalitarian society who secretly resists the oppressive government. In contrast, Bernard Marx in Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World is a member of a highly technologically advanced society where the government has complete control over its citizens.

One of the main differences between the two characters is their relationship with their respective governments. Winston is actively opposed to the government, and he goes to great lengths to avoid detection and to resist their control. Bernard, on the other hand, is more accepting of the government’s authority, and he is content to live within the strict societal boundaries set by the ruling class.

Another significant difference is their social status. Winston is a low-ranking member of society who works in the Ministry of Truth. He is not well-liked and is considered an outsider by many of his coworkers. Bernard, on the other hand, is a high-ranking member of society and is considered to be one of the ruling elite. He is well-liked and respected by his peers, and he has access to privileges and luxuries that are not available to the lower classes.

Additionally, the two characters have different views on love and relationships. In 1984, love is considered to be a dangerous emotion that must be suppressed. Winston, however, longs for intimacy and connection, and he ultimately falls in love with Julia despite the risks. In Brave New World, love is viewed as a primitive and outdated concept. Bernard, like many other members of society, is content with superficial relationships and casual sex.

Overall, Winston Smith and Bernard Marx are two characters who live in vastly different societies, and they have different attitudes towards the government and their own social status. While Winston is a rebellious outsider who longs for love and connection, Bernard is a conformist member of the ruling class who is content with the superficial relationships of his society.

Now I don’t think this is a great piece of literature, but I will tell you that the comparing and contrasting that was done offers insights I might not have made if I was writing this essay on my own. This would be a great starting point to a more comprehensive essay… which I could further get Chat GPT to assist me with.

This is a game changer for teaching. The question won’t be how do we stop students from using this, but rather how do we teach students to use this well? Mike Bouliane said in a comment on yesterday’s post, “Interesting post Dave. It seems we need to get better at asking questions, and in articulating them more precisely, just like in real life with people.“

Indeed. The AI isn’t going away, it’s just going to get better. When I asked the question above, I didn’t ask the AI to give specific examples as evidence. That was my first and only attempt. What happens if I iterate a bit more? Add more detail? Put the result back into the AI and ask it to make improvements?

We aren’t going to be able to teach around this tool, so we are probably going to have to teach students when and how to use it. Teaching in the age of very articulate AI is going to have to look different than teaching just a few years ago.

Next level artificial intelligence

Most of the images I use to accompany my blog are created by artificial intelligence (AI). For yesterday’s post on Childhood memories I wrote about a memory of being frozen from the walk home from school on a cold day. I put the following into DALL•E, “A boy walking on a sidewalk in a snowstorm, in an abstract watercolour ” and chose one of the 4 images this AI created:

Impressive to think that this artwork was created by a computer.

Well now there is a new AI called Chat GPT.

Chat GPT is language based… and when I say language based I mean just about any language, including code. Apparently it can write the code to create an APP if you tell it what features you want the APP to have. You can share code in any computer language and ask this AI to find errors. Or you can input an error message you got in your code and it will find the problem.

That’s great for coding, but it’s also very articulate and creative in most languages. I was interested in what it could write and so my first attempt was to have it write a blog post for me. So, this is what I asked, “Read a few posts at https://daily-ink.davidtruss.com/ and write a post that the author would write”. It didn’t do exactly what I asked. Instead it created a promotional advertisement for my blog. Even though I didn’t get what I was asking for read this and see how well it is written:

As a writer, I am constantly on the lookout for inspiration and new ideas. One of my favorite sources of inspiration is reading the work of other writers. Recently, I came across the website https://daily-ink.davidtruss.com/, and I was blown away by the quality of the writing I found there.

The posts on this website cover a wide range of topics, from personal reflections on life and love to thought-provoking discussions of current events. Each post is beautifully written, with clear and concise language that is a joy to read.

One of the things that really stood out to me about this website is the author’s ability to convey complex ideas in a way that is accessible to a wide audience. Whether you are a seasoned writer or someone who is just starting out, you will find something to love on this website.

In addition to the high-quality writing, I also appreciated the website’s clean and simple design. The layout is easy to navigate, and the posts are organized in a way that makes it easy to find what you are looking for.

If you are looking for a new source of inspiration, I highly recommend checking out https://daily-ink.davidtruss.com/. I guarantee that you will not be disappointed.

Not a person, an artificial intelligence wrote that!

Here was my second attempt: “Write a short news story about the coming of age of artificial intelligence.”

And this is what Chat GPT came up with in just a few seconds after my query:

In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. This technology, which was once only found in science fiction novels, is now becoming a reality.

One of the key developments in the field of AI has been the advancement of machine learning algorithms. These algorithms allow computers to learn from data and improve their performance on a variety of tasks. This has led to the creation of intelligent systems that can perform a wide range of tasks, from recognizing images and speech, to playing games and even driving cars.

As AI technology continues to improve, it is being used in an increasingly wide range of applications. It is being used in healthcare to help diagnose diseases, in finance to make better investment decisions, and even in the criminal justice system to help predict the likelihood of recidivism.

Despite the many benefits of AI, there are also concerns about the potential negative impacts it could have. Some worry about the potential loss of jobs as more tasks are automated, and there are also concerns about the ethical implications of creating machines that can make decisions without human input.

Overall, the coming of age of AI is a significant development that has the potential to change our world in many ways. As the technology continues to evolve, it will be important to carefully consider the potential benefits and drawbacks of this powerful technology.

Impressive! You literally can not tell that a human didn’t write that article. Wow. AI is going to change the world as we know it… this is absolutely a new level of intelligence.

All atwitter

I’m fascinated by Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter. This is going to get interesting because while social media companies pretend to have community guidelines that are designed for the public good, they are private companies that can make arbitrary decisions… and they often do. There are always stories in the news about how certain perspectives are silenced, or questions about why some extreme groups are banned while others are not.

But in the end, they are private companies and they can make arbitrary decisions. Elon wasted no time making some of his own:

“Elon Musk fired key Twitter executives Thursday, one of his first moves as the official owner of the social media platform. According to reports from the New York Times, CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post and other outlets, Musk fired CEO Parag Agrawal, CFO Ned Segal, general counsel Sean Edgett, and head of legal policy, trust and safety Vijaya Gadde.” ~ TechCrunch

I suspect that he is going to make some very subjective decisions in the coming weeks, and while the narrative used to be, “we are looking out for you as best as we can,” Elon’s message will be more like, “I’m running a private company and I make the decisions.” He will say he is trying to ‘clean up’ Twitter, but his decision-making will be very personal and I’m not sure his perspective on public good will be transparent or based on public feedback.

I’m uncertain where he’s going to take Twitter, but I don’t think the social media landscape will look the same 6 months from now.

Cold, dark universe

Take a half hour and watch TIMELAPSE OF THE FUTURE: A Journey to the End of Time

The current theories about the future of the universe is that it will expand into vast, empty, cold darkness. Even before all this happens the universe will be a very lonely place with stars moving away so fast that our telescopes would not be able to see them. Of course the timeline for this happening is so unfathomably long it simply isn’t conceivable. How inconceivable?

Life will only be possible for this percentage of time of the universe’s existence:

This would be utterly depressing if the scale of time wasn’t so enormous. But on this scale, if I looked forward 1,000 generations, that too would be a blip in time, with almost no change in the universe described in this film happening yet. We have a lot more immediate concerns about humanity’s survival than the expansion and aging of the universe.

I wonder if our universe isn’t like a lonely atom in empty space… a simple speck in a multiverse of distant universes that are oblivious to the existence of other atom-like universes also floating in empty space. Maybe some universes are aware of each other, quantum entangled with each other, playing out inverse existences. And maybe they are all entangled, universe-particles in a cosmic wave, vibrating in every possible direction. Grab your surfboards, it’s time to surf the cosmos.

Strong Opinions, Weakly Held

Stanford University professor Paul Saffo is a futurist and future forecaster who coined the phrase, “Strong opinions, weakly held.”

I love this idea. One of the biggest problems today is that too many people have strong opinions that are strongly held. Well, maybe the biggest problem is that too many people have incorrect, unsubstantiated, or uninformed strong opinions that are strongly held. And these poorly formulated strong opinions are exactly the kind of thing that gets magnified on social media… they incite interaction that is more likely to become viral by attracting both opposing views, and the attention of equally like minded, strongly held opinions. Strong opinions, weakly held don’t pull as much social media attention, mainly because these aren’t opinions that people need to shout about online.

The power of strong opinions, weakly held is that ‘strong opinions’ allow you to ‘see’ and be passionate about your perspective, while being ‘loosely held’ allows you to take newly found information and adjust or change your strong opinions.

Case in point: Flat Earthers are the perfect example of strong opinions strongly held. Any evidence given to them doesn’t matter, it’s immediately cast as false or contrived by people conspiring against them. And so no matter the proof given to them, their strong opinion of a flat earth stay unchanged.

Imagine if doctors and scientists held such strong opinions? We’d probably still be blood letting with leaches to treat a fever, and not washing our hands before dealing with open wounds, surgery, and childbirth. Progress comes from being able to let go of conventions and norms that keep us stuck in our current frame of thinking.

Nothing wrong with strong opinions, they are just better off loosely held.

4-day work week

Maybe it’s my age, but I really wish the work week was just 4 days long. Too often a weekend feels too short. It’s not even about rest, it’s about wanting to do more in such a short time.

We’ve had a few 3-day weekends recently and I’ve really noticed a significant difference compared to this past 2-day weekend. I got stuff done beyond the ‘need to do’ stuff when I had one more day.

I don’t know the history behind the 5-day work week, and frankly I don’t care to look it up. It doesn’t matter what the reason was, it just doesn’t seem necessary anymore. Add an hour a day to the school day, Monday to Thursday, and Fridays get added to the weekend.

What would it take to make this happen? Whose game to try?

Food and fuel insecurity

Since the pandemic started we’ve seen shortages in both consumable items and merchandise, which we haven’t seen before in my lifetime. I recently paid over $2.40 per litre of gas, and can remember being upset at having to pay over $2 not that long ago. Early in the pandemic it was toilet paper that was scarce to find, but that was driven by fear of shortages. More recently I’ve seen the back of empty shelves where I have not seen them before, ranging from items in the butcher section, to baking items, to well known products that usually seem to have an endless supply.

And I think things will get worse before they get better.

Parts of Europe are being deforested by concerned citizens collecting firewood, by people uncertain if they will be able to afford heating fuel in the coming winter. Food banks are reporting record number of people needing their service. And certain items including basic food items will be both in short supply and more expensive than ever before.

This is not fear mongering, and it’s also not all doom and gloom, end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it, but life in general is going to get more expensive with less purchasing power and choice for a while.

How will this pan out over the next few years? It’s hard to guess because the issues of inflation, money devaluation, questions of war, and a shaky stock market are far beyond my understanding. What I suspect is that this global economic downturn is not something we will just have to deal with this winter, but something that we will deal with through all of 2023 and beyond.

We can live without our favourite brand of cereal in our grocery stores. We can wait longer than we hoped for an appliance or a new car to arrive after ordering it. What we can’t do is sustain gas and food prices that make it impossible for lower-middle class and poorer families to sustain themselves on their inflation-diminishing salaries for an extended period of time… while grocery stores and oil companies generate record quarters of profits. At what point do large corporations recognize that their record profits will fall when a significant part of the population has no buying power?

My fear is that it has to get a lot worse before significant system change will happen. In the mean time, prepare to watch your purchasing power fall over the next year and beyond.