Tag Archives: information

The upside down bell curve

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The bell curve, also known as a normal distribution, is a graph that depicts how values in a dataset are distributed. Most values cluster around the average with fewer values appearing at the extremes… those rare few that do very well or very poorly.

But there is a new curve evolving that matters more, the upside down bell curve where the ones on the extremes are where most of the data points are distributed. In an era of free and openly available information, this is the new learning curve. There is no more average majority, instead there are those that understand and those that do not. Those that participate and those that opt out. Those that engage and those that choose not to. Those that seek to learn and those that disengage.

The resources needed to do well are available. The access to information is there for all who want it. The opportunity to get that information in a format or delivery that makes sense to you is easy to find. The question is, are you willing to put the effort in?

If you learn how you best learn, then access to information is no longer a barrier and you will likely learn very well. You will be with the majority of people on the successful side of the distribution curve. If you decide it’s too hard, or choose not to engage, you will be with the other majority, ignorantly selecting the unsuccessful side of the distribution.

There will be anomalies, those that have learning challenges that are not met and struggle, and those that make no effort yet still find it easy to understand things. There will also be those few that just choose to squeak by, capable of more but neither excelling or struggling. But this is the era of extremes. This is a time when the ‘A’, the ‘Exceeding Expectations’, the ability to excel, is available to most… and yet will only be achieved by the ones who actually choose it.

The mathematical average of the curve might be the same, but the distribution will be starkly divided.

Almost free

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I remember being a young kid when a door-to-door salesman came to our house and sold my dad a Junior Encyclopedia set. I was amazed at all the information in there. I could just think of any topic and it seemed that there was an entry for it.

In Grade 10 or 11 I took a programming course in high school. I don’t remember much other than having to punch little dots out of cards and handing them in. My teacher would bring them back to us the next class with a printout of the instructions we created with these punch cards.

At the time, I owned a Commodore Vic 20 which had 20k of memory. I remember buying the 16k adapter cartridge so that I could have 36k of memory, but I can’t remember why I wanted the extra data. I think I was writing a book on bass fishing with my buddy on the Commodore and we were using up too much space.

Now our fridges can do more than my Vic 20, and our phones give us access to quite literally any information we desire. Computers have wafer thin chips in them, the size of my finger nail, that can store entire libraries of information. We have no shortage of information or storage… as long as we aren’t trying to store 20,000 photos on our phones.

Information used to be power. Now it seems that information is free. Well, almost free, because we actually pay for information with our attention. The website is free but you’ve got to see the advertising. The podcast is free but you have to listen to commercials. Social media content is free but influencers push products your way, and sell you programs. And you end up not scrolling past an ad because it is designed like the content you normally consume.

We don’t have to buy encyclopedias anymore, information is almost free… The price we pay is our attention.

Polished isn’t necessarily true

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There are some very articulate people who sound coherent and convincing, but what they are saying lacks honesty and ultimately truth. Fluency and a good delivery don’t necessarily produce valid points, and don’t necessarily deliver worthwhile ideas.

Now, in the first sentence above, replace the word ‘people’ with ‘Artificial Intelligence’.

Let’s not confuse good delivery of information with accuracy.

What it means to be literate?

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Can you read? Can you do basic math? Is that enough?

The critical thinking required to make sense of the world today is ever increasing. We have a world leader using magical math to make a trade deficit calculation into a reciprocal tariff calculation, and claiming that this is, “Kind reciprocal, not full reciprocal.”

What? Help me make it make sense?

Meanwhile, I saw a video that someone created using AI. He uploaded a pdf article for two AI‘s to discuss, one of the AI’s was a version of himself, with his voice, and the other was a female at a desk. The only thing that suggested to me that the conversation was between two AI’s was some awkward hand gestures. Take those movements away, or make them a bit more natural/realistic and I would have no idea that I was watching an AI conversation.

Meanwhile, in Egypt, there are some wild claims about structures under the great pyramids, and while the evidence is unclear, I’ve seen many videos explaining these not-yet-proven structures. These claims include that they are a network of power sources connected to other structures around the world, and another theory claiming that aliens created them.

And speaking of aliens, wasn’t it just a few short months ago that we ‘discovered’ aliens living in our oceans? What ever happened to that story?

It’s becoming almost impossible to be informationally literate today. By the time you have time to seriously fact check something the story is already old, and there are new crazy claims that require your skeptical attention. What’s the source of this information? Where did they get their data from? What’s the bias of the news source? How is this data being manipulated? Who paid for the study? Is this a real quote? Is this video real, or CGI, or AI?

Who is fact checking the fact checkers? Meanwhile, here in Canada, a fact checker hired by one of our news stations was let go because trolls that don’t like their favourite political party being fact checked brought so much negative attention to her that the news station let her go.

What? Help me make it make sense?

The reality is that reading and writing and doing basic math is not enough to be functionally and informationally literate today. The critical thinking required to simply consume the information being thrown at us is overly demanding. I think the way forward for the short term is to find trusted sources and rely on them… and yet that’s the very thing that has seemed to get us into trouble. How many people get their news from just one or two biased sources? I’m literally now suggesting to find an echo chamber to sit in… hopefully you can find one that echoes facts, common sense, and some semblance of the truth.

Is this real?

There is a commonality between hearing the question, “Is this spam?” regarding an email, and hearing the question, “Is this real” regarding a video that might be staged, enhanced with AI, or even intentionally spreading lies.

In an age of unlimited information a new kind of skepticism is needed. What’s the source? Does the source have a slant, a bias, or an agenda? Is this actually from the source it claims? (Just yesterday a fake article that was sent to me had a Toronto Star subscription banner access the top of the web page, to make it seem like it was from this newspaper, but the URL was totally different.)

You would think that in a curated social media world you would be able to discern fact from fiction, real from fake. But more than ever we need to be sceptical about what we see and hear. In a world of abundant information our need to question what we believe to be true is more important than ever before. I find myself Googling quotes to see if they match other sources, and questioning headlines that seem even subtly surprising. Is this true? Is the article real? Or is it an elaborate ploy to pitch a product or simply to garnish shares and likes? Is the title of the article misleading? Do I click on that link to learn more?

Is it real? I never used to ask this question. A news headline used to mean that I was getting curated information from a reliable journalist who attempted to be impartial. Now even mainstream media seems increasingly biased and agenda driven. Knowing the source means understanding the bias more than the reliability of the information. And so my BS detector is always on… and even then I find myself being fooled until I see a product placement or a clear agenda being pushed. Media consumption now requires a good dose of scrutiny and skepticism… and with AI being more and more convincing, the level of scrutiny will need to increase.

Access to abundant information doesn’t make us smarter. Instead, the constant stream of data requires discernment and thoughtful consideration. Reliability is no long assumed, and the question, ‘is this real?’, is a necessary part of information consumption. Skepticism has become the most important part of media literacy, and curating trusted sources of good information has became a skill not easily duplicated or taught.

It’s easier to accept information than it is to question it… especially when that information fits my model of the world. And the internet (and our ‘trusted’ social media platforms) are filled with information that fits my world view. In fact, that biased world view I have is further fed to me by an algorithm that learns what I like. This only makes it harder to determine what is real and what isn’t.

‘unable to distinguish’

Carl Sagan wrote, ‘The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark’ in 1996, almost 30 years ago. When I read this quote from the book it really resonated with me. Carl Sagan saw what was coming.

“I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness…

The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance”

The line, “unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true”, seems to me the most chilling insight. It’s like gut instinct, a failing intuition, and biased sources of information all get weighed heavier than fact… and truth is a construct people create in their minds. The capital ‘T’ Truth seems to be constantly up for debate, and somehow a well researched theory loses validity when it is contrasted by conspiratorial ‘facts’ shared on social media with a little background, spooky mood music. As if these two sources of information deserve equal consideration.

Here’s a news flash… they don’t. And the fact that so many people are unable to distinguish the difference is both alarming and scary.

Information is free, Truth takes effort

We live in an era where:

Lies spread faster than the truth

There is worldwide concern over false news and the possibility that it can influence political, economic, and social well-being. To understand how false news spreads, Vosoughi et al. used a data set of rumor cascades on Twitter from 2006 to 2017. About 126,000 rumors were spread by ∼3 million people. False news reached more people than the truth; the top 1% of false news cascades diffused to between 1000 and 100,000 people, whereas the truth rarely diffused to more than 1000 people. Falsehood also diffused faster than the truth. The degree of novelty and the emotional reactions of recipients may be responsible for the differences observed.

Science, 9 Mar 2018, p. 1146-1151

Media, and even more-so social media, can’t be trusted. And in fact, if it is eye-catching and click-bait worthy it will be sensationalized and potentially untrue. We live in an era of unlimited information and much of it is not factual, and not easily verifiable.

What can we do? I’ve said before that ‘Web Domains Matter’, and they do, but we still need to recognize that even new sites considered reputable have biases.

So we are required to take new information in as skeptics. Meanwhile we have to balance our scepticism with a dose of common sense or we could easily fall down the conspiracy rabbit hole. This is the new normal, this is being information savvy. This does not mean we will get to the Truth. Because it’s not just the information coming in that has bias, we have our own biases too.

We all have work to do, to understand some sort of relevant small ‘t’ truth that is in fact closely related to the capital ’T’ Truth. To find our way amidst an endless stream of information that favours misinformation, fake news, and half-truths. The rabbit hole runs deep, and we are all on a journey down it… with Artificial Intelligence creating a whole new level of generating convincing fakes that are easily believed, and algorithmically shared way more than anything truthful.

Start with the source, where is the information coming from? Apply a sliding scale of scepticism depending on the reliability of the source. Then be savvy in deciding what to believe and what to dismiss.

Source, scepticism, and savviness… the new path to information literacy.

The enemy of knowledge

“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.” ~ Stephen Hawking

The illusion of knowledge is more ignorant that just being ignorant. This idea is more relevant today than any time in history. Examples:

1. Every religion starts with the premise that their religion shares true knowledge and all the other religions share illusions. So every devout religious person loves their own illusions, or at the very least believes anyone of a different faith lives in an illusion of ignorance.

2. Anyone who believes in a flat earth, or thinks no one ever landed on the moon lives in an illusion of knowledge. They perceive themselves as more knowledgeable than scientists, experts, and even general employees in the flight and space industry.

3. AI is already generating incredibly persuasive deep fakes and while we used to use a discerning eye to catch a lie, soon we will need to be more discerning to catch the truth. The illusion of knowledge will be more rampant than actual, factual knowledge.

We are moving from an era of knowledge seekers to an era of illusions and ignorance.

The truth is out there… it’s just a lot harder to find, and even harder to defend.

Digital vomit

In his recent ‘Making Sense’ podcast, Sam Harris said this:

“Every part of culture: Science, public health, war, economics, the lives of famous people, conspiracy theories about everything and nothing… All information is in the process of being macerated by billions of tiny mouths and then spit back again, and lapped up by others. So what is in fact actually digital vomit, at this point, is being spread everywhere. And celebrated as some form of nutrition.”

Unfortunately this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. It’s not just ‘billions of tiny mouths’ that are going to be spewing digital vomit, it’s going to be a massive machine of propaganda networks spewing AI created disinformation, vitriol, fake news, and falsified ‘evidence’ to back up the vomit it produces.

And while you would hope mainstream media would be the balancing force to combat this digital vomit, this is not the case. Mainstream media does not have a foothold in truth-telling. Don’t believe me? Watch MSNBC and Fox News side-by-side and you’ll see completely different coverage of the same event. You’ll see minor threats described as crises. If it’s not an emergency it’s not news… so it’s an emergency.

So prepare for a lot more digital vomit. Start trying to figure out how to mop up the mess, to make sense of the mess, because it’s going to get very messy!

Public by default, private by choice

This is the world we now live in. Almost everything we do is public by default, private by choice. But even then we can’t guarantee our privacy. Share something, anything online privately and it’s only as private as the least privacy-minded person.

Send a photo to just your closest friends, but one friend finds it funny and passes it on.

Send an email to a few people to try to resolve a private problem, but one recipient decides to forward it beyond the group… or worse yet, shares it on a public forum because they disagree with how you are dealing with the situation privately.

Send a direct message to someone rather than having it in your public timeline, and they respond by sharing your message on their public timeline, along with their response.

Privacy is hard to do in a world where so much is easily made public. It’s hard to do when the default is public. This speaks to how important it is to act as if anything you share is public. Because while we might make the choice to be private, we are only one part of the sharing equation. Private by choice means keeping something just to yourself, and not saying/sharing it with anyone or on any social media platform.

All communication is public by default. Privacy is an illusion that can be broken at any time.