Writing is my artistic expression. My keyboard is my brush. Words are my medium. My blog is my canvas. And committing to writing daily makes me feel like an artist.
Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR or S/N) is a measure used in science and engineering that compares the level of a desired signal to the level of background noise. SNR is defined as the ratio of signal power to the noise power, often expressed in decibels. A ratio higher than 1:1 (greater than 0 dB) indicates more signal than noise. Wikipedia
This is a scientific term that relates to how much background noise there is interfering with the data or information you are trying to receive. A simple way to think about this is having a conversation in a party. If the noise of the party is too loud, you can’t pick up the signal (what the other person is saying). There is a point at which the noise does not interfere and the signal/communication is easy to hear, then moving along the scale the noise can interfere a little or a lot.
With machines this ratio is easy to calculate. With humans it’s a lot harder. It isn’t always about the quality of the signal, it’s also about the the willingness of the receiver to receive the signal. Sometimes people are not ready to receive the signal no matter how clear it is. Sometimes people choose to listen to the noise. Sometimes the noise is in their own head, not just coming from outside.
We are currently living in a world where a large number of people pay attention to the noise and are missing the signal altogether. A world where the noise is intentionally being spread. A world where the signal is considered noise. But humans aren’t machines, and so the noise isn’t easily calibrated and removed.
Social media used to amplify the signal, now it amplifies the noise. News used to amplify the signal, now it constantly reports about the problem of the noise, thus highlighting the noise and bringing it to everyone’s attention… not always in a negative light… or putting the signal and the noise on an equal footing as if to say here are two equal signals to be weighed and considered. As a result, communities, families, and friendships are being torn apart as they argue about what is signal and what is noise.
I’m reminded of the ‘More Cowbell’ skit on Saturday Night Live.
https://vimeo.com/257364428
The noise is becoming too loud to receive the signal in any meaningful way. We need to simultaneously turn up the signal and turn down the noise. If not, we better get used to the cow bell.
This is an interesting time that we live in. I find myself in a position where I need to question my own values. I don’t do this lightly. I don’t pretend that my values have suddenly changed. It’s just that present circumstances put me at odds with my own beliefs around freedom of speech.
I am a strong believer in freedom of speech. I think that when a society sensors speech, they are on a dangerous path. I take this to an extreme. Except for slander, threats, and inciting violence, I think people have a right to say and believe what they want. I believe that taking away such freedom puts us on a perilous path where a select few get too much control, and can undermine our freedoms.
An example where I take this to the extreme would be agreeing with Noam Chomsky.
So now, even as an ardent defender of free speech, I find myself agreeing with YouTube’s decision to ban vaccine misinformation:
YouTube doesn’t allow content that poses a serious risk of egregious harm by spreading medical misinformation about currently administered vaccines that are approved and confirmed to be safe and effective by local health authorities and by the World Health Organization (WHO). This is limited to content that contradicts local health authorities’ or the WHO’s guidance on vaccine safety, efficacy, and ingredients.
Two, four, eight, or sixteen years ago when YouTube began, I would have screamed ‘Censorship!’ at the idea of a platform banning free speech. Even now it bothers me. But I think it is necessary. The first problem is that lies and misinformation are too easily shared, and spread too easily. The second problem is that the subject area is one where too many people do not have enough information to discern fact from fiction, science from pseudoscience. The third problem is that any authentic discussion about these topics is unevenly biased towards misinformation. This last point needs explanation.
If I wanted to argue with you that Zeus the Greek God produces lightning and thunder when he is angry, I think everyone today would say that I was stupid to think such a thing. However, if I was given an opportunity to debate a scientist on this in a public forum, what inadvertently happens is that my crazy idea now gets to have an equal amount of airtime with legitimate science. These two sides do not deserve equal airtime in a public, linkable, shareable format that appears to give my opinion an equal footing against scientific evidence.
Now when dealing with something as silly as believing in a thunder god is the topic, this isn’t a huge issue. But when it’s scientific sounding, persuading and fear mongering misinformation that can cause harm, that’s a totally different situation. When a single counter example, say for example a person having adverse effects from a vaccine, becomes a talking point, it’s hard to balance that in an argument with millions of people not having adverse effects and also drastically reducing their risk of a death the vaccine prevented. The one example, one data point, ends up being a scare tactic that works to convince some people hearing the argument that the millions of counter examples don’t matter. And when social media platforms feed similar, unbalanced but misleading information to people over and over again, and the social media algorithms share ‘similar’ next videos, or targeted misinformation, this actually gets dangerous. It threatens our ability to weigh fact from fiction, news from fake news, science from pseudoscience. It feeds and fosters ignorance.
I don’t know how else to fight this than to stop bad ideas from spreading by banning them?
This flies in the face of my beliefs about free speech, but I don’t know any alternative to prevent bad ideas from spreading faster than good ones. And so while I see censorship as inherently evil, it is a lesser evil to allowing ignorance to spread and go viral. And while it potentially opens a door to less freedom, and I have concerns about who makes the decision of what information should be banned, I’d rather see a ban like this attempted, than for us to continue to let really bad ideas spread.
I thought in this day and age common sense would prevail and there would be no need to censor most if not all free speech. However it seems that as a society, we just aren’t smart enough to discern truth from cleverly said fiction. So we need to stop the spread of bad ideas, even if that means less freedom to say anything we want.
I am dumbfounded by the news that people are self-medicating using a drug to treat livestock for parasites in order to ‘prevent’ or ‘cure’ themselves from covid-19… despite this being dangerous.
This is just batshit crazy. There is a large population of people that won’t take the vaccine because they don’t know what’s in it. Vaccines have been around since 1796, and have saved countless lives. Vaccines are proving that they are working, with drastic differences in Covid-19 hospitalization and deaths between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. The stats are so easy to see…
But these people will follow the advice of crackpots on Facebook and take a medicine designed for large livestock animals in unknown doses. These people are the same people that call anyone who gets the vaccine a sheep. Let that thought sink in.
These are people who get their information from that one crackpot doctor who knows more than every conventional doctor. They know someone, who knows someone, that this worked for. They know the government is out to get them, to strip them of their rights and freedoms and control them. And they skip by the articles on their crackpot pseudoscience news websites about chemtrails and alien created crop circles to get to the anti-vaccine ‘science’… not realizing that most people don’t get their facts from places where they have to choose their own conspiracy adventure.
We live in a world of easy access to too much information and miss-information, which feeds anyone’s beliefs. Information isn’t neutral… facts aren’t evenly distributed. I think that critical thinking might just be the most important skill of this century. Our biggest job in schools these days might just be developing kid’s bullshit detectors… before they start taking medication designed for bulls.
One of my pet peeves in education is people who talk about the fact that there are bad teachers, as if to say it is somehow unique to the teaching profession and not to any other profession. I’ve met proportionately very few teachers that I would consider bad compared to bad actors in many other professions. Another profession that seems to be low in bad actors, in my opinion, is medical doctors. Most people go into these professions wanting to serve and help others.
This is why I don’t understand the blatant disregard for well-being that seems to be present in anti-vaccine doctors. I went down a rabbit hole this morning, watching a well known podcaster, professor, and researcher speak to 2 doctors that clearly have compromised stances on covid 19. It was painful. Intelligent people making moronic claims [[update]]. One of them professing that he developed the MNRA vaccine process. One of them talking about about his carpet cleaner’s ailments after taking the vaccine, and how this person could not get anyone to share the horror of his story. I couldn’t get myself to watch the whole thing.
What I don’t understand is the motivation behind these otherwise intelligent people choosing to talk about science fiction and call it science? What’s the benefit? Who gains from this? Conspiracy theories depend on so many people acting in bad faith, people across the globe in different countries colluding and keeping secrets, all for the purpose of maintaining a narrative that makes no sense.
In BC, the spread of covid-19 in senior’s homes was an embarrassment. It benefited no one: not the homes that make money by recruiting more seniors; not the health municipalities that had to count the deaths; not the families that had to watch from a distance, unable to visit their loved ones. But it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that senior’s homes affected by covid had significantly more deaths than those not affected. Again, this was a provincial and even national embarrassment. Yet, conspiracy theorists talk about co-morbidity and try to pass these ‘extra’ deaths off as if they would have happened anyway. It’s so ignorant to do this, and yet it becomes a blanket statement that disregards examples like this that prove how dangerous this virus is.
And again for whose benefit? That’s the big question that baffles me? Who gains from promoting these dangerous ideas? I truly don’t know.
I’ve always been amazed by airplane flight. I don’t truly understand Bernoulli’s principle and the idea that so much weight can be lifted off the ground based simply on propulsion and lift under carefully designed wings still seems unlikely to me. And yet in less than 30 minutes the plane I’m on is going to taxi down a runway and start a 4,239 KM (2,634 mile) trek across (about half of) one of the largest countries in the world… and I’ll be sitting on a runway in Vancouver in 5 hours. Amazing.
We spend a lot of our day taking full advantage of technology we don’t really understand. I’m holding a phone that will magically publish this post to the internet, where it will sit on a website, all the while not knowing how this all works or what http stands for? I can talk to someone half way around the world with virtually no delay in the conversation, but sound travels much slower than that. I will listen to my wireless headphones without knowing how Bluetooth works. All around us we use advances in technology, taking advantage of tools most of us barely understand.
But this ignorance can work against us. Without really understanding the world around us, some people make shit up and think it’s science. How can anyone believe in a flat earth in this day and age of flight? And that’s not even the craziest thing people believe! It’s one thing to be blissfully ignorant of the world around us, and yet another to think that conspiracies live everywhere and that our opinions matter as much as the science.
Two amazing things that surround us:
1. The mystery and marvels of technology and innovation.
2. The blind ignorance of humanity to how this all works.
I’m not sure the gap between these two are getting any closer. The more amazing the the technology, the greater the opportunity for conflagration of lies, deceit, and exaggeration of fears into a dumpster fire of conspiracies, ‘fake news’, and ‘alternative facts’… with people knowingly and unknowingly adding fuel to the flames.
But for now, it’s time to put my phone on airplane mode, take advantage of having a window seat, and stare out at a runway… Marvelling at how this massively heavy plane can leave the surface of the earth, and soar for hours, trusting the science of it without really understanding how it all works.
I’m not pretending that I have a crystal ball, and can see into the future, but here are some predictions on the year ahead:
1. Vaccines.
A) In the developed world: despite growing evidence that vaccines are saving lives, there are going to be too many people that choose not to get them and the Delta variant (or another yet to be named variant) will bring prolonged restrictions that the very people refusing to get the vaccine will be the most vocal about.
B) In the developing world: It will be another year from now before many countries have enough vaccines to distribute two shots to every person that wants one… but in some of these countries it will be mandated, and that will be a new front of contention and fear mongering in ‘more free’ countries.
C) Booster shots (a 3rd dose) will not be seriously considered for at least 6 months to a year, if at all… but watch for news as elites decide to get it anyway, and while this won’t influence anti-vaxers to get their shots, many with 2 shots will want the 3rd shot as a security blanket.
2. Conspiracy theories.
These will flourish for two reasons:
A) Social media is too easily exploited by clever use of targeted advertising dollars, and fake news/information travels faster than boring but true facts.
B) The news plays easily into the hands of controversy = clicks = advertising dollars. Example: Share the story of an articulate 22 year-old choosing not to be vaccinated. Let her express her concerns for a minute, give a 30 second response, let her get the last word in. The controversy is more important than the science, and the news cast plays like an anti-vaxer advertisement… for free, with a large audience.
3. American Politics: The next year will decide the 2024 election. It is comical to me that some people still think the last election will be overturned… it won’t. However, I think Trump will make a lot of waves in the next year. While I won’t make a prediction as to weather he rides the wave or sinks, I think contention around the last election will be the counterbalance to Trump’s legal woes, and both of these will play into keeping his name in the news, and on the minds of Americans. If in a year he is not in legal hot water, then be warned that he could be a legitimate candidate in 2024.
4. Climate Change: Freakish weather will make this a hot topic for the next year. That said, not much will change with respect to doing something meaningful about it. Newsworthy, but somehow not change worthy.
5. Cryptocurrency: Countries will begin to adopt their own digital currencies. Paper bills will not be produced by most countries in 5 years, and this will be evident by next summer. Developing countries with massive inflation issues will lead the way.
6. Cancel culture: I’ll end on this, and in all honesty, I think this is a wish more than a prediction. I hope that there is some rebalancing around people being cancelled for poor indiscretions. What I mean by this is that someone saying something stupid can’t be treated as equally vile as someone who commits an evil crime. Human beings make mistakes. Two things matter when those mistakes are made. First, how much harm was caused? Second, what is the response/consequence?
I don’t think public/social media spaces are spaces where restitution and resolutions happen. Instead these sites become cesspools of anger, hate, rage, and an attack on people which prevents conversation and learning. Some of these attacks are worse than the indiscretion, but that doesn’t seem to matter.
I would like to see people provided a chance for redemption, rather than vilification and cancelation. We need to allow for learning and growth.
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That’s 5 predictions and a wish. I’ll set a calendar date for a year from now and see how I did.
I was in our local drug store yesterday and they were taking walk-ins for the covid-19 vaccine. People just needed to be 55 years old or older to get it. I’m a year and a half too young and so I couldn’t get mine. It was wonderful to see, but also so frustrating that I still have to wait. I know it’s not a quick fix, I know I work in schools where students will not be vaccinated for quite some time. I know we will have strict protocols right through the end of June, and potentially when we start up in September again. I know all this, but I feel like I’m in perpetual limbo waiting for my turn to get the vaccine.
I also wonder about all the people choosing not to take the vaccine. Vaccines are not perfect, but neither are countless over the counter drugs that people use every day. For instance, ibuprofen is a drug many people take way too frequently and can be very bad for you. Here is some information about ibuprofen:
“Regular use of ibuprofen may eventually cause:
kidney and liver damage
bleeding in the stomach and bowels
increased risk of heart attack.”
And, “NSAIDs such ibuprofen can increase the risk of heart attack or stroke in people with or without heart disease or the risk factors for heart disease.”
In a global pandemic, no vaccine is going to be perfect, but the fear mongering and paranoid opportunists have pushed the anti-vax stupidity to what would be comical levels if the consequences of their stupidity weren’t spreading so quickly. I’m frequently surprised by people sharing concerns about the vaccine who seem to have very limited understanding of what research has been done, people who confuse RNA with DNA, and people who cherry pick their information from biased news sources and spout their bias as ‘facts’.
All this leads me to think that when I finally get the vaccine, while I’ll sigh a little sigh of relief, and while I’ll do a little happy dance… I just might find myself in the same limbo a while longer. I’m not sure it’s going to bring me as much comfort as I would like it to.
A few days ago I wrote about the state of limbo we are in, dealing with the coronavirus. I said,
My thoughts: If everything goes well, it could be September before we get close to vaccinating enough of the population to truly ease up on our personal restrictions. More likely, we are looking at January 2022. That’s another year away. I think things will get much better, but the path will be slower than everyone wants.
However I made an assumption that I’mstarting to question. More and more I’m realizing that there are going to be too many ‘free riders‘, too many people not taking the vaccine. Too many people believing that the vaccine will cause more issues than the virus. Too many that think the virus isn’t serous enough in their age bracket. Too many people that misunderstand what a vaccine is and what it does.
Without enough of a herd immunity, the virus will continue to spread in a way that means our lifestyle pre-pandemic are not likely to return for years. Virus mutations can and will spread, and each mutation has the potential to spread more easily and/or mutate enough to make vaccines less effective.
It’s like we are all in the same lifeboat and it has tiny little holes in it. Vaccinated people plug the holes, non-vaccinated people don’t think the holes are a serious enough problem. These free riders aren’t doing their job plugging the holes in the boat. And because of that, the boat keeps getting wetter.
I’m shocked every time I hear someone say that they won’t get vaccinated. I know there are ‘anti-Vaxers’ who link vaccines to false claims and negative propaganda, but I can’t say I’ve met or know too many people I’d put in this category. What I am seeing is vaccine hesitant people who think that vaccines for Covid-19 are unreliable, or not significantly tested, or even dangerous. It is this group that scares me. The crackpot anti-vaxer community is a fringe group, too large for my liking but not larger enough to endanger heard immunity from happening… however the vaccine hesitant group is way bigger than I thought, and this group will undermine the ability to reach herd immunity; to keep our lifeboat dry enough not to be concerned.
Only a few days ago I was feeling like I was being pessimistic saying the earliest rerun to ‘normal’ was January 2022, but now I’m thinking that’s terribly optimistic. We could be stuck in this leaky lifeboat for a very long time.
It is wishful thinking to hope that people will not be fooled again by QAnon. This is a sad but true statement. The reality is that people are natural puzzle solvers who seek to make connections. We want to make sense of the world, and this leaves some people vulnerable to suggestions that there are connections that are not really there.
Our brains extrapolate, they naturally extend ideas. This has made us incredibly inventive and creative people. This has not helped us distinguish fact from fiction. This is where extrapolation goes very wrong. I think the problem is that while our brains are seeking to extrapolate and extend ideas, they are stimulated towards possible connections and simultaneously let down our bullshit detectors. Our brains really struggle to seek new connections while at the same time make good judgements about those connections we are seeking.
Have you ever played 2 Truths and a Lie?
Try to pick out my lie:
1. I’ve illegally bungee jumped off of a local bridge.
2. I cheated on, and successfully passed, the LSAT.
3. I stole a neighbour’s car when I was 17, dented the fender, and put it back without him knowing I took it.
Which one did you pick?
I know this doesn’t paint a very nice picture of me. I wanted you to see my dark side. Now before you even pick the lie, you are probably extrapolating things about me and the kind of person I really am. You also probably extrapolated that statement #3 was a truth because it is more believable and more detailed than the other two.
However, here is a strategy I used: I told 3 lies. In one easy step, I could’ve convinced you that 2 lies are true. It’s that easy to convince someone of a lie… or in this case 2 lies.
I’ve never bungee jumped, never wrote the LSAT, and never stolen a car. But had I not told you that, had I picked one as the lie, you probably would have believed the other two. What’s scary is, the more you know me, and the more credibility I have, the easier it is for me to fool you.
Here is an example in the media: This is how people like Tucker Carlson can dupe viewers over and over again. In this article, Fox News lawyers argued in court that Carlson is not ‘stating actual facts’ about the topics he discusses and is instead engaging in ‘exaggeration’ and ‘non-literal commentary.’
They argued this in a libel lawsuit where Carlson was being sued and, “The Court concludes that the statements are rhetorical hyperbole and opinion commentary intended to frame a political debate.” Fox News told the court that this is what Tucker Carlson does, he doesn’t report news… and the judge agreed and they won the case. Think about this! Fox News said Tucker Carlson’s show is not news, but just exaggerated opinion.
However, he is broadcasted on a ‘News’ show, that gives him credibility. To a fan of his: He is in ‘your’ living room with you 5 nights a week. And he feeds you tiny little, often convincing lies… or should I say ‘exaggerated opinions’. Next you go to even less reliable websites and you hear the Tucker Carlson lies being repeated. Other lies are added to the things you know are true because you heard it on Fox ‘News’ from your buddy Tucker Carlson, and you extrapolate that these must be true too.
That’s right Dave is a car thief, oh and he cheated on the LSAT’s, and I seem to recall that he illegally jumped off a bridge too… The other interesting thing about our memory is that we don’t often remember what the lie was and we can easily put the lie in with the other ‘truths’.
Some people eventually catch on.
Many others will get fooled again. It’s sad but true.
The new year does not bring any tangible changes as a result of our planet crossing an arbitrary point in our rotation around the sun.
The new year brings hope, for a heard immunity against Covid-19, thanks to a number of different vaccines.
The new year does not bring any immediate relief from the spread of Covid-19, with a greater threat of spread due to a more contagious new variant coming out of the UK.
The new year brings resolutions and promises of self-improvement and ambitious goals.
The new year does not bring any promise of fulfilling these new goals without a dedicated effort to change habits and behaviours.
The new year brings a political and ideological shift in power in the United States.
The new year does not bring a promise of less divisiveness in the American people who seem too ideologically divided.
The new year brings inconsistent approaches to dealing with the virus, from being scarily too open to being confusingly too locked down.
The new year does not bring any promise of clarity about how best to deal with the virus while we wait for widespread vaccine distribution.
The new year brings continued paranoia and conspiracy filled misinformation, shared virally on social media.
The new year does not bring any way to meaningfully combat the spread of bad ideas.
The new year brings anticipation for a better year than 2020.
The new year brings promise of post pandemic world.
The new year brings opportunity for positive change.
The new year brings us more of the same, unless we choose to think, say, and act differently.
Let’s be different, better, more loving, kind, and caring… to ourselves, our community, and our environment. We do not get to choose the world we live in, but we do get to choose our impact on it and those in our community we share it with.
