Tag Archives: prediction

What the next year will bring

I’m not pretending that I have a crystal ball, and can see into the future, but here are some predictions on the year ahead:

1. Vaccines.

A) In the developed world: despite growing evidence that vaccines are saving lives, there are going to be too many people that choose not to get them and the Delta variant (or another yet to be named variant) will bring prolonged restrictions that the very people refusing to get the vaccine will be the most vocal about.

B) In the developing world: It will be another year from now before many countries have enough vaccines to distribute two shots to every person that wants one… but in some of these countries it will be mandated, and that will be a new front of contention and fear mongering in ‘more free’ countries.

C) Booster shots (a 3rd dose) will not be seriously considered for at least 6 months to a year, if at all… but watch for news as elites decide to get it anyway, and while this won’t influence anti-vaxers to get their shots, many with 2 shots will want the 3rd shot as a security blanket.

2. Conspiracy theories.

These will flourish for two reasons:

A) Social media is too easily exploited by clever use of targeted advertising dollars, and fake news/information travels faster than boring but true facts.

B) The news plays easily into the hands of controversy = clicks = advertising dollars. Example: Share the story of an articulate 22 year-old choosing not to be vaccinated. Let her express her concerns for a minute, give a 30 second response, let her get the last word in. The controversy is more important than the science, and the news cast plays like an anti-vaxer advertisement… for free, with a large audience.

3. American Politics: The next year will decide the 2024 election. It is comical to me that some people still think the last election will be overturned… it won’t. However, I think Trump will make a lot of waves in the next year. While I won’t make a prediction as to weather he rides the wave or sinks, I think contention around the last election will be the counterbalance to Trump’s legal woes, and both of these will play into keeping his name in the news, and on the minds of Americans. If in a year he is not in legal hot water, then be warned that he could be a legitimate candidate in 2024.

4. Climate Change: Freakish weather will make this a hot topic for the next year. That said, not much will change with respect to doing something meaningful about it. Newsworthy, but somehow not change worthy.

5. Cryptocurrency: Countries will begin to adopt their own digital currencies. Paper bills will not be produced by most countries in 5 years, and this will be evident by next summer. Developing countries with massive inflation issues will lead the way.

6. Cancel culture: I’ll end on this, and in all honesty, I think this is a wish more than a prediction. I hope that there is some rebalancing around people being cancelled for poor indiscretions. What I mean by this is that someone saying something stupid can’t be treated as equally vile as someone who commits an evil crime. Human beings make mistakes. Two things matter when those mistakes are made. First, how much harm was caused? Second, what is the response/consequence?

I don’t think public/social media spaces are spaces where restitution and resolutions happen. Instead these sites become cesspools of anger, hate, rage, and an attack on people which prevents conversation and learning. Some of these attacks are worse than the indiscretion, but that doesn’t seem to matter.

I would like to see people provided a chance for redemption, rather than vilification and cancelation. We need to allow for learning and growth.

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That’s 5 predictions and a wish. I’ll set a calendar date for a year from now and see how I did.

Not in our lifetime

We have an inherent bias that we believe things will happen in our lifetime, and conspiracy theorists are far more biased in this area than others. The next big event will bring the end of the world as we know it.

From the Bay of Pigs all the way to the Reagan era, World War III was inevitable. Y2K was going to send us back to the Middle Ages. Meteors, super volcanos, earthquakes, super floods, and yes, viruses, are all threats to humanity that will be the end of civilization as we know it…. apocalyptic threats to the human race that will happen any day now.

But the weird part is that somehow these are inevitable to happen in ‘our’ lifetime. We will bare witness. We will be the last generation to know what normal was.

Normal.

What is that? Normal as in a life of traveling by horse and buggy? Normal as in women can’t vote? Normal as in smoking in restaurants? Normal as in life before indoor plumbing, or before social media?

Our world advances in extremely fast and innovative ways, but somehow the human race will find its demise in our lifetime… or so conspiracy theorists believe. People will prepare for the end days, but they won’t live in the now.

“If I hold up this sign that says, ‘The world will end tomorrow’ long enough, one day I will be right.”

…that’s assuming the end will happen in your lifetime… but it probably won’t. We will see so many changes in our lifetime, but so will our grandkids… and maybe they will see the end times, but the simple reality is that it’s unlikely to happen in ours.

Humans, the earth, or the universe probably need a few more generations to really screw things up for us, for our planet, and odds are that this will happen after everyone living today is long dead. The end might be near, but it’s farther away than our short lives.

Digital currency

In five to ten years a crisp, mint condition 50 or 100 dollar bill from the ‘late 1900’s’ will be a collector’s item. No one will be paying for anything with paper bills or coins. No one. It’s not just that we will be using credit cards and bank cards instead of cash, there won’t be any form of money that won’t be digital.

The Canadian and American dollar, and currencies from all over the world, will be digital cryptocurrencies. They won’t be like Bitcoin where every account address is public. When you pay, no one will be able to look into your account, but the money will be verified as real at the point of transaction. You will be able to instantly change currencies from one country’s currency to another, without a bank. You will also be able switch to another cryptocurrency or Visa, or MasterCard, or some form of smart contract IOU, that is staked against something you own (at a pre-determined interest rate).

Paper money will be nothing more than collectables like Magic the Gathering or Pokémon cards that are no longer printed.

It might seem crazy to think this will happen as soon as 5 years from now, but North America won’t be first. There are countries with incredible inflation that need to print larger and larger bills, making smaller bills useless. In countries like this, the cost of printing the money is hardly worth the effort. Imagine having to carry around seven to ten $50,000 bills to buy a loaf of bread! These economies will move to digital first.

But then the transition will grow exponentially. Within 10 years every nation will have a digital currency and paper money will be a thing of the past. Have any mint condition bills and coins? Keep them, they will be worth a lot more than face value for your grandchildren.

The speed of change

Yesterday I was having a conversation with my colleague, Dave Sands, Principal of Technology Implementation in our district. He shared some good news that our 14th and final middle school in the district is becoming a BYOD – Bring Your Own Device school. This is a great accomplishment for our district. It starts with ensuring the infrastructure is in place. Next, teacher technology, capacity, and readiness are essential, and finally there needs to be support for families that can not afford their own technology. This takes time.

In the conversation I remembered a presentation that I did in 2009 at the Building Learning Communities conference in Boston titled “The POD’s are Coming!”

In the presentation I said, the seed of this presentation started with a conversation and a blog post. Here is what I said in an October 2008 post:

“PODs. We are about 5 years away from most of our students bringing PODs to school, Personally Owned Devices. I’m talking about pervasive access to laptops and iPhone-like devices in our schools. Every kid coming to school with more capability in their pockets and hands than most teachers have on their desk right now.

So in the presentation in July 2009, 9 months later, I said that we were 4 years away from this happening. I was wrong. It took 7 years longer than I thought.

When I look back now, I can see that we weren’t ready for this in 2013. The infrastructure was barely there, there was a lot of fear around the use of technology in the classroom because of the distraction (and disruption) technology causes, and teachers were not ready to lead the charge.

I know many other districts aren’t where we are, and yet we were 7 years slower than what I imagined was possible. Progress and change happen slower than we expect in schools. However, in the world we live in now, 7 years is an eternity to be behind doing what’s possible.

We will need schools to be far more agile in the future.

Flying Cars

If you were any kind of fan of science fiction fan growing up, then you probably imagined that by now we would be traveling by flying car.

While I don’t think flying cars are too close to being a common means of transportation any time soon, I do think that there will come a time when this will be a viable and safe way to travel. How will this disrupt what we currently do? Often times the disruption isn’t fully thought about until the new technology is gaining ground.

How will we rethink roads? Will we be allowed to drive them, or will they be controlled by AI, which is fully aware of every other vehicle around them (in a way that we can’t accomplish with our brains and our limited attention?)

Would buildings have arrival and departures from their roofs? Will cars link up if they are heading in the same direction? Where will they be allowed to take off and land? What does rush hour look like?

We haven’t been very good at foreseeing how a new technology will change the way we do things, and I think flying cars will be one of those technologies that disrupts our lives significantly… and then we’ll have conversations about their value after they are inevitable.

We don’t prepare for technology to transform our lives, we just react to technology after we’ve integrated it into our lives.

We do not know

In a number of different places I’ve already said that COVID-19 has humbled me in that my thoughts and predictions have been way off. I’m not the only one.

Here is an interesting but worrisome article from Vox: My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes?

“We do not know how much immunity to expect once someone is infected with the virus, we do not know how long that immunity may last, and we do not know how many antibodies are needed to mount an effective response.”

There is still so much we need to learn about this virus that has changed the social and economic habits of humankind on a massive scale. So much we don’t know.

Here’s one thing I believe, (while admittedly not truly knowing):

We are going to be dealing with COVID-19 social restrictions and economic repercussions well into 2022.

I want to be wrong. I hope I’m wrong. I doubt that I’m wrong.

I tend to be optimistic, and this doesn’t sound very optimistic. Not at all. But I think accepting that from now and right through 2021, we will be navigating a defensive response to COVID-19 will help us stay positive. We can plan the best possible path forward facing a very challenging scenario, and be pleasantly surprised if I’m wrong. This is better than hoping for the best and continually being disappointed.

If we prepare for a long response, adhering to the required social distancing and social norms recommended to us, we will make things better, faster.

The path forward won’t be easy, but maybe we’ll learn some valuable lessons along the way. On the path, we need to be patient with each other. Tolerant. Forgiving. Kind.

We aren’t designed to live our lives in a constant state of anxiety or stress, and it’s hard to constantly adapt to change. But the rules for social interaction are going to be fluid for a while, sometimes loosening restrictions and opening public and social spaces, sometimes closing them down again. We need to be fluid too. Responsive. Adaptable.

We may not know what the future holds, but we will be more prepared for that future if we prepare for a prolonged and bumpy ride. Let’s work together and make it as smooth as possible.