Writing is my artistic expression. My keyboard is my brush. Words are my medium. My blog is my canvas. And committing to writing daily makes me feel like an artist.
Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR or S/N) is a measure used in science and engineering that compares the level of a desired signal to the level of background noise. SNR is defined as the ratio of signal power to the noise power, often expressed in decibels. A ratio higher than 1:1 (greater than 0 dB) indicates more signal than noise. Wikipedia
This is a scientific term that relates to how much background noise there is interfering with the data or information you are trying to receive. A simple way to think about this is having a conversation in a party. If the noise of the party is too loud, you can’t pick up the signal (what the other person is saying). There is a point at which the noise does not interfere and the signal/communication is easy to hear, then moving along the scale the noise can interfere a little or a lot.
With machines this ratio is easy to calculate. With humans it’s a lot harder. It isn’t always about the quality of the signal, it’s also about the the willingness of the receiver to receive the signal. Sometimes people are not ready to receive the signal no matter how clear it is. Sometimes people choose to listen to the noise. Sometimes the noise is in their own head, not just coming from outside.
We are currently living in a world where a large number of people pay attention to the noise and are missing the signal altogether. A world where the noise is intentionally being spread. A world where the signal is considered noise. But humans aren’t machines, and so the noise isn’t easily calibrated and removed.
Social media used to amplify the signal, now it amplifies the noise. News used to amplify the signal, now it constantly reports about the problem of the noise, thus highlighting the noise and bringing it to everyone’s attention… not always in a negative light… or putting the signal and the noise on an equal footing as if to say here are two equal signals to be weighed and considered. As a result, communities, families, and friendships are being torn apart as they argue about what is signal and what is noise.
I’m reminded of the ‘More Cowbell’ skit on Saturday Night Live.
https://vimeo.com/257364428
The noise is becoming too loud to receive the signal in any meaningful way. We need to simultaneously turn up the signal and turn down the noise. If not, we better get used to the cow bell.
This is an interesting time that we live in. I find myself in a position where I need to question my own values. I don’t do this lightly. I don’t pretend that my values have suddenly changed. It’s just that present circumstances put me at odds with my own beliefs around freedom of speech.
I am a strong believer in freedom of speech. I think that when a society sensors speech, they are on a dangerous path. I take this to an extreme. Except for slander, threats, and inciting violence, I think people have a right to say and believe what they want. I believe that taking away such freedom puts us on a perilous path where a select few get too much control, and can undermine our freedoms.
An example where I take this to the extreme would be agreeing with Noam Chomsky.
So now, even as an ardent defender of free speech, I find myself agreeing with YouTube’s decision to ban vaccine misinformation:
YouTube doesn’t allow content that poses a serious risk of egregious harm by spreading medical misinformation about currently administered vaccines that are approved and confirmed to be safe and effective by local health authorities and by the World Health Organization (WHO). This is limited to content that contradicts local health authorities’ or the WHO’s guidance on vaccine safety, efficacy, and ingredients.
Two, four, eight, or sixteen years ago when YouTube began, I would have screamed ‘Censorship!’ at the idea of a platform banning free speech. Even now it bothers me. But I think it is necessary. The first problem is that lies and misinformation are too easily shared, and spread too easily. The second problem is that the subject area is one where too many people do not have enough information to discern fact from fiction, science from pseudoscience. The third problem is that any authentic discussion about these topics is unevenly biased towards misinformation. This last point needs explanation.
If I wanted to argue with you that Zeus the Greek God produces lightning and thunder when he is angry, I think everyone today would say that I was stupid to think such a thing. However, if I was given an opportunity to debate a scientist on this in a public forum, what inadvertently happens is that my crazy idea now gets to have an equal amount of airtime with legitimate science. These two sides do not deserve equal airtime in a public, linkable, shareable format that appears to give my opinion an equal footing against scientific evidence.
Now when dealing with something as silly as believing in a thunder god is the topic, this isn’t a huge issue. But when it’s scientific sounding, persuading and fear mongering misinformation that can cause harm, that’s a totally different situation. When a single counter example, say for example a person having adverse effects from a vaccine, becomes a talking point, it’s hard to balance that in an argument with millions of people not having adverse effects and also drastically reducing their risk of a death the vaccine prevented. The one example, one data point, ends up being a scare tactic that works to convince some people hearing the argument that the millions of counter examples don’t matter. And when social media platforms feed similar, unbalanced but misleading information to people over and over again, and the social media algorithms share ‘similar’ next videos, or targeted misinformation, this actually gets dangerous. It threatens our ability to weigh fact from fiction, news from fake news, science from pseudoscience. It feeds and fosters ignorance.
I don’t know how else to fight this than to stop bad ideas from spreading by banning them?
This flies in the face of my beliefs about free speech, but I don’t know any alternative to prevent bad ideas from spreading faster than good ones. And so while I see censorship as inherently evil, it is a lesser evil to allowing ignorance to spread and go viral. And while it potentially opens a door to less freedom, and I have concerns about who makes the decision of what information should be banned, I’d rather see a ban like this attempted, than for us to continue to let really bad ideas spread.
I thought in this day and age common sense would prevail and there would be no need to censor most if not all free speech. However it seems that as a society, we just aren’t smart enough to discern truth from cleverly said fiction. So we need to stop the spread of bad ideas, even if that means less freedom to say anything we want.
It is an insightful, graphic way to look at what has happened to death rates of covid patients since the vaccine was introduced. It helps you understand the scale of this compared to things like yearly deaths by lightning, drowning, and traffic accidents. But these two images really put things into perspective:
Have a look at Covid deaths in the US, especially after vaccine introduction (the box on the right):
And how things would look if vaccines didn’t work, versus the actual statistics:
I am dumbfounded by the news that people are self-medicating using a drug to treat livestock for parasites in order to ‘prevent’ or ‘cure’ themselves from covid-19… despite this being dangerous.
This is just batshit crazy. There is a large population of people that won’t take the vaccine because they don’t know what’s in it. Vaccines have been around since 1796, and have saved countless lives. Vaccines are proving that they are working, with drastic differences in Covid-19 hospitalization and deaths between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. The stats are so easy to see…
But these people will follow the advice of crackpots on Facebook and take a medicine designed for large livestock animals in unknown doses. These people are the same people that call anyone who gets the vaccine a sheep. Let that thought sink in.
These are people who get their information from that one crackpot doctor who knows more than every conventional doctor. They know someone, who knows someone, that this worked for. They know the government is out to get them, to strip them of their rights and freedoms and control them. And they skip by the articles on their crackpot pseudoscience news websites about chemtrails and alien created crop circles to get to the anti-vaccine ‘science’… not realizing that most people don’t get their facts from places where they have to choose their own conspiracy adventure.
We live in a world of easy access to too much information and miss-information, which feeds anyone’s beliefs. Information isn’t neutral… facts aren’t evenly distributed. I think that critical thinking might just be the most important skill of this century. Our biggest job in schools these days might just be developing kid’s bullshit detectors… before they start taking medication designed for bulls.
We are living through one of the biggest social experiments in history. We are getting thousands of data points all over the world that show us what the Delta variant is doing…
In Florida:
Florida becomes first US state where the daily deaths in current wave have exceeded previous waves. pic.twitter.com/xK9UK2don8
Please don't blame vaccines not working as the cause for rising death rate in Florida. Vaccines are working to prevent deaths in many other countries that have seen post vaccine spike in cases; and most other states in the US as well. Florida is different. https://t.co/wGBW7xgdYV
Want to guess what the death rate will look like in these highly unvaccinated areas?
Where does the social experiment come in? India didn’t have ready access to vaccines, Florida, Mississippi, and Louisiana all did. Meanwhile, the Florida Governor has an order against mask mandates in schools. Over the coming months we get to see large scale data sets on how decisions like this affect the lives and deaths of people in different places. We get to see what happens when people put themselves before their communities, and what fear can do to undermine society.
Decades from now there will be case studies in textbooks that will discuss the differences in preventable deaths. There will be questions about how to prevent this in a future pandemic. There will be models to show how devastating this kind of response would be if the same pandemic response happened with a virus that is 3, 10, or 20 times more contagious and/or deadly.
The Delta variant, which is affecting younger people more indiscriminately than the original variant, is quickly becoming the great un-equalizer. It is quickly revealing how a good response to the pandemic fairs so much better than a bad response. The sad part is that it’s doing this with hospitalization and deaths.
Equally as sad is that many younger kids and immune compromised people that do not have a choice to get a vaccine will suffer because of people who are able to take an available vaccine and choose not to. The unvaccinated, that are so by choice, are creating a giant social experiment where they are playing with people’s lives, and the data that’s coming out is proving this.
There is no shortage of videos and social media posts sharing data that clearly demonstrates that the vaccine is saving lives. These include posts sharing that hospitals are being inundated with unvaccinated covid patients in areas where double-vaccinated populations are low. Today I saw a post of a teary-eyed man who thanked a doctor for his amazing videos because his mom finally got vaccinated after seeing several of the doctor’s videos that her son shared with her. With FDA approval for the Pfizer vaccine coming this week, I think even more people will chose to get vaccinated. That’s great news. It’s sad that so many people are still willing to remain unvaccinated, and it seems as though no amount of data, or scientific evidence will change their minds.
But there are concerns that I have for those that are already vaccinated. These concerns are social rather than medical. The Delta variant is far more contagious than the original covid strain. There are many more breakthrough cases (double vaccinated people catching and spreading covid) happening with Delta, and while the risk of hospitalization and death are very low compared to unvaccinated people, vaccinated people can still spread Delta.
So, to all the double-vaccinated people out there, please don’t be under the illusion that the vaccines have made you safe. You are safer, not safe. Still wear a mask in public places. Still pay attention to social distancing protocols. Still be part of the solution rather than adding to the problem. This isn’t just so that we protect ourselves, it is so that we protect our loved ones and our community. In heavily vaccinated places like Canada, if the vast majority of vaccinated people complied with mask and social distancing safety protocols, we can hopefully turn the current increase in cases into a small blip as opposed to a full on next wave.
It’s not lost on me that I’m asking the very people who have done the most to do more. But this is the population more likely to comply, and wearing masks and socially distancing is so much better than lockdowns and dangerously full hospitals.
1. The Delta variant is treating Canada like it is treating the rest of the world… as a country with many hosts to spread.
2. Countries like Israel have already started giving booster shots to double-vaccinated people to decrease the spread of Delta.
3. We are a week and a half from opening schools here and things are not likely to be ‘back to normal’.
4. The FDA is going to approve the Pfizer vaccine next week, and that will convince some reluctant, or rather hesitant, people to finally get vaccinated.
Here is what I believe:
1. The unmasked, “Don’t worry I’m double-vaccinated” masses are almost as much a threat as the unvaccinated when it comes to Delta. We need to keep masks and social distancing going.
2. Booster shots will be yet another place for people to argue, but they will be instrumental in moving past covid in the next year… rather than the pandemic creeping into 2023 or even ’24.
3. I said over a year ago that things will start to move towards normal by January 2022. This seems more hopeful than likely right now.
4. There is enough data being shared by enough smart people with legitimate credentials to debunk anti-vaxer arguments, but more facts won’t change most anti-vaxer minds.
Here is what I hope:
1. I hope that vaccine approval below the age of 12 comes soon. Delta seems to be more contagious and adverse at younger ages.
2. I hope booster shots become something we can do in Canada, but I also hope to see more shots being provided to developing countries where vaccination numbers are low, not by choice but by lack of availability.
3. I hope that January 2022 starts with good news, and that not only is this 4th wave small, but that it is the last wave to make news for a very long time.
4. I hope that not too many unvaccinated people die before unvaccinated families see the correlation between high hospitalization and death statistics of unvaccinated people in relationship to low statistics for vaccinated people. Death of family members is an awful way to learn from your mistakes.
I’ve been saying since before Christmas 2020 that, “Things willstart toreturn to normal by January 2022.”
With the Delta variant being very contagious, and new variants like B.1.621.1 showing up on the US east coast, I don’t think school is going to start in September anywhere near as normal as we might have thought it would in June. Going into a busy coffee shop this morning, I was the only one wearing a mask, including the employees. The only covid precautions I saw were hand sanitizer at the entrance and the barista using tongs to put a straw into a cold drink.
I think new variants are going to give us a bit of a spanking, then we’ll smarten up and re-tighten up our precautions enough to slowly move in the right direction.
Although it may have seemed a bit pessimistic at the time, I am now hopefully optimistic that my prediction can be met. Despite the evidence of a 4th wave, it could be smaller, less alarming, less dangerous (thanks to the vaccine), and better managed. The ‘better managed’ is the key. We move forward with caution, or we move backwards.
Even if you are double vaccinated, wear a mask in public indoor spaces. Let’s keep these variants away.
It’s staggering to look at the hospitalization numbers coming in, now that millions of people have been vaccinated. It’s simple: get vaccinated and you are extremely unlikely to end up in the hospital even if you still catch the Delta variant. But what are the motivations of the unvaccinated to change their minds? Travel. Not safety, not protecting others in the community, but the fear of travel restrictions without proof of vaccination.
I don’t watch TV but I’ve been going on TikTok for a 1/2 hour or less, (I keep a time limit in this addictive app), and I follow a lot of doctors and epidemiologists on the site. What I find is that about 1/2 of their posts are about research results and the other half tend to be responsive to comments they get on previous posts. Some of these questions are good, even if they question the results. Some are responses to asinine ignorance.
Many people don’t know how to do, or understand, the necessary math. Here is a fictitious example of a deceiving headline: “50% of new cases are vaccinated“. That sounds like the vaccine isn’t working. But later in the article it says that 80% of the population is vaccinated. Making the math simple, if there were 100 people and 4 got covid, that would mean two non-vaccinated and two vaccinated people contracted the virus (50% each). But the population was 20 unvaccinated and 80 vaccinated, so while the cases were 50-50, the chances of getting covid work out like this:
Unvaccinated: 2/20 = 10%
Vaccinated: 2/80 = 2.5%
While the headline makes it seem like the vaccine isn’t working, the unvaccinated are four times more likely to contract the virus in this example. This doesn’t even factor in the significant increase of risk of hospitalization/death for the non-vaccinated.
Right now two things are causing headlines like this to proliferate:
1. A balance of ignorance and desire to get clicks and views: Reporters not understanding the math themselves and rushing to get the attention-gaining headline out.
2. Deliberate malice: People who know exactly what they are doing and want to promote an anti-vax narrative.
As we move forward and the numbers will start to be more available as well as more obvious. Will that make a difference? Probably not for those that are entrenched. It’s not the numbers that will change people’s minds, it will be the (proclaimed) limitations on their liberties, like travel… and buckle up because this isn’t going to happen without a lot of whining and complaints.
