It’s staggering to look at the hospitalization numbers coming in, now that millions of people have been vaccinated. It’s simple: get vaccinated and you are extremely unlikely to end up in the hospital even if you still catch the Delta variant. But what are the motivations of the unvaccinated to change their minds? Travel. Not safety, not protecting others in the community, but the fear of travel restrictions without proof of vaccination.
I don’t watch TV but I’ve been going on TikTok for a 1/2 hour or less, (I keep a time limit in this addictive app), and I follow a lot of doctors and epidemiologists on the site. What I find is that about 1/2 of their posts are about research results and the other half tend to be responsive to comments they get on previous posts. Some of these questions are good, even if they question the results. Some are responses to asinine ignorance.
Many people don’t know how to do, or understand, the necessary math. Here is a fictitious example of a deceiving headline: “50% of new cases are vaccinated“. That sounds like the vaccine isn’t working. But later in the article it says that 80% of the population is vaccinated. Making the math simple, if there were 100 people and 4 got covid, that would mean two non-vaccinated and two vaccinated people contracted the virus (50% each). But the population was 20 unvaccinated and 80 vaccinated, so while the cases were 50-50, the chances of getting covid work out like this:
Unvaccinated: 2/20 = 10%
Vaccinated: 2/80 = 2.5%
While the headline makes it seem like the vaccine isn’t working, the unvaccinated are four times more likely to contract the virus in this example. This doesn’t even factor in the significant increase of risk of hospitalization/death for the non-vaccinated.
Right now two things are causing headlines like this to proliferate:
1. A balance of ignorance and desire to get clicks and views: Reporters not understanding the math themselves and rushing to get the attention-gaining headline out.
2. Deliberate malice: People who know exactly what they are doing and want to promote an anti-vax narrative.
As we move forward and the numbers will start to be more available as well as more obvious. Will that make a difference? Probably not for those that are entrenched. It’s not the numbers that will change people’s minds, it will be the (proclaimed) limitations on their liberties, like travel… and buckle up because this isn’t going to happen without a lot of whining and complaints.
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Related: I’d rather be a sheep than a lemming
