It was a simple question asked in a meeting of BC online schools.
“Are we using data to prove or to improve?”
Is it about accountability or improvement? What does the data teach us about our practice? How does it affect our future outcomes and where we focus our support and funding?
What is the real value of collecting data, and how is it best used to inform our practice?
I think a very conservative prediction would be that we will see Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the next 5 years. In other words, there will be AI agents, working with recursive self-improvement, that will learn how to do new tasks outside the realm of its training, faster than a human could. But when this actually happens will be open for debate.
The reason for this is that there isn’t going to be some magical threshold that AGI suddenly passes, but rather a continuous moving of the bar that defines what AGI is. There will be a working definition of AGI that puts up an artificial threshold, then an AGI model will achieve that definition and experts will admit that this model surpasses that definition, but will still think the model lacks some sufficient skills or expected outputs to truly call it AGI.
And so over the next 5 years or so we will have far more sophisticated AI models, all doing things that today we would define as AGI but will not meet the newest definition. The thing is that these moving goal posts will not be adjusted incrementally but rather exponentially. What that means is that the newer definition of AGI is going to include significantly greater output expectations. Then looking back, we will be hard pressed to say “this model’ was the one or ‘this day’ was the day that we achieved AGI.
Sometime soon there will be an AI model put out into the world that will build its own AI agent that starts a billion dollar company without the aid of a human… but that might happen even before consensus that AGI has been achieved. There will be an AI agent that costs lives or endangers lives with its decisions made in the real world, but that too might happen before consensus that AGI has been achieved.
Because the goal posts will keep moving while the technology is on an exponential curve, we are not going to have a magic threshold day when AGI occurred. Instead, in less than 5 years, well before 2030, we are going to be looking back in amazement wondering when we passed the threshold? But make no mistake, that’s going to happen and we don’t have an on/off switch to stop it when it does. This is both exciting and scary.
Carl Sagan wrote, ‘The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark’ in 1996, almost 30 years ago. When I read this quote from the book it really resonated with me. Carl Sagan saw what was coming.
“I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness…
The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance”
The line, “unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true”, seems to me the most chilling insight. It’s like gut instinct, a failing intuition, and biased sources of information all get weighed heavier than fact… and truth is a construct people create in their minds. The capital ‘T’ Truth seems to be constantly up for debate, and somehow a well researched theory loses validity when it is contrasted by conspiratorial ‘facts’ shared on social media with a little background, spooky mood music. As if these two sources of information deserve equal consideration.
Here’s a news flash… they don’t. And the fact that so many people are unable to distinguish the difference is both alarming and scary.
As the principal of our district online school I hear a lot of stories about kids not wanting to attend school anymore, and so they are looking to try online learning. A former, retired principal of a nearby online school, Brad Hutchinson, had a quote about this. He said that, “Online learning is a school of first choice and last resort.”
When a student takes an online course because they want to: they want to upgrade, or they want to create room in their school schedule for another elective, then our success rates are very good. When a student comes to us as a last resort because nothing else is working for them, our success rates are awful.
It’s so hard as a principal. Every time they come as a last resort they, or their parents, believe this is the best choice. But a kid who won’t attend school, or won’t do work for a teacher who is right in front of them, is very unlikely to do school for a teacher that is on the other end of an online course, and not in their faces reminding them of the work that needs to be done.
We try. We offer supports. We even occasionally see some initial results. Then we don’t see anything. Another powerful quote about online learning came from a former ministry employee, Tim Winkleman, and this is one that I say a lot, “No pace is not a pace.”
When nothing is being done, when students choose not to proceed, or feel they can’t, then that’s simply not progress. It’s hard to be a school of last resort where regular attendance is not expected. It’s hard to see students give up on trying when they feel like this is their last chance to find success in school. It’s also really hard to tell a kid or a parent who is desperate to avoid other school options that this is a bad option to try.
There have to be some better last resort options out there for kids who struggle to attend school regularly… I just don’t know what those options are?
I looked at my workout tracker yesterday and realized that I haven’t missed a day of exercise yet this year. While that’s great, it is important to recognize the importance of rest. Sure I don’t do long workouts, and I usually focus on a single muscle group after cardio, so my muscles do tend to get rest days in, (other than my legs for cardio). But there is something to be said about the value of a full rest day.
It’s a busy week and I’m getting up an hour later than usual. Today I give myself permission to take a well deserved rest day. And I need to remind myself not to wait this long to do it again. It’s easy to forget to take a day off when you’ve built a daily exercise habit. Instead of feeling like an important thing to do, it feels like cheating.
There is something really psychologically sound about internationally taking a full rest day. It’s medicine for the soul. There is a significant difference between choosing a rest day and slacking off; between being lazy and choosing to take a healthy break. But the framing of it (like o just did) is important. Because if I feel like I’m just slacking off then it feels more like a cop out than an important and valuable break.
It feels good to have such a healthy routine that I actually have to remind myself to take a break. That’s such an empowered frame of reference compared to having to convince myself to workout. And I know with full conviction that I’ll work out tomorrow. After all it has been over a year since I missed two days in a row.
But today I rest.
Heard this a few days ago and it has stuck with me.
The definition of anger: An emotional punishment you give yourself for someone else’s behaviour.
Kinda makes my little road rage about someone not using their indicator feel a little stupid.
I think there are times when anger might be an appropriate response. But how many times is it just unnecessary self punishment? How often does it linger too long? How much mental energy is used to hold on to angry thoughts?
And who ultimately pays the price for being or staying angry?
Is Math discovered or invented?
The conclusion I come to is BOTH!*
This is an oversimplification but I think it makes the point:
There is no such thing as 1 divided by 2. I can have 1/2 of 2 apples, that’s what we would call discovered math. I have 2 apples, I spilt them into 2 groups of one, and give you 1, and I have one left. We can do this easily. But if I cut a single apple into halves, then I have invented Math. I can’t grow a half of an apple, and I can’t cut an apple perfectly into halves.
Another way to look at this is that if I take 7 equal length 1-foot rulers and put them in a straight line, I have a 7 foot length that is made up of 7 single units. However, if I decide to make this length a single unit and I divide it into 7 parts, 1/7=0.142857 repeating.
There is math that we have discovered because it is discoverable in nature, and then there is math that is invented to make sense of ideas that we invent, like fractions of a whole. Using the 7 units of 1 divided by 7, versus 7 divided by one, is a clear example of this. A perfect 1/2 of an apple is another.
But it’s a bit more complicated and confusing than this simple explanation. This doesn’t mean that any irrational number is necessarily invented. π (pi) is discoverable and not invented. The golden ratio, Φ (phi), is also discoverable. The square root of 2 on the hypotenuse of a 1×1 square is an invention we sought to make sense of an imaginary line dissecting a square.
So, some Math is discoverable and some math is invented (capitalization is my own emphasis).
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*Note: I’ve come to this conclusion through discussions with Joe Truss on the nature of our universe and the premise that ‘We Live in a Tetraverse’.
I call it the most important book I never read. It’s called “Bowling Alone”. I asked Microsoft Copilot to synthesize the message of the book for me:
“The main message of “Bowling Alone” by Robert D. Putnam is that social capital in the United States has been declining since the 1960s. Putnam argues that this erosion of community engagement and participation in civic life has led to a weaker democracy and a decline in personal well-being. He emphasizes the importance of revitalizing social networks and community bonds to strengthen society.”
I say that I didn’t read it, but I tried. It was suggested for a book club I was in 20+ years ago and while the premise is why I call it the most important book I never read, the actual text was very much like a textbook and way too boring. None of us finished it, but we had very interesting conversations about it and I’ve thought about a lot in subsequent years.
I think the message about lost community is more relevant today than 20 years ago. I have lived in the same house for over 25 years. I know my neighbours on either side of me well, but vaguely know the rest of my neighbours beyond that. I don’t live in a community as much as we cohabitate in a common local area.
Community should describe our neighbourly connections not our geographical location. Close community bonds strengthen a society. I think about this as I think about retirement. At some point my wife and I will downsize our home. Where do we move to? To me geography matters less than community. The more specific question to ask is, where do we move to in order to maximize our connections to our friends and community?
The difference between living 15-20 minutes away from a friend versus 45-60 minutes away is the difference between seeing them regularly versus making monthly plans. It’s the difference between living in a community and commuting to occasionally visit and see each other.
In the future I want to create the community that I want, in close proximity to me. I want to cohabitate with my social community, not travel from a place where I cohabitate with strangers to get to my community of friends.
I’m in Courtney, BC, for a meeting of BC Provincial Online Learning School principals. We are fortunate that we will also be joined by the Ministry. I took the ferry here yesterday and arrived in time to join 5 other principals for a late dinner.
The dinner was enjoyable even though 80+% of the conversation was work related. That’s the nature of these meetings, because my colleagues from other districts across BC understand my job in my district better than 95% of my colleagues ‘back home’. And as we talk, we learn, we seek advice, we share, and we support one another.
All that before the meeting even starts this morning. We are principals of online school. We can easily connect online and that’s mostly how we connect. But sitting at a dinner and breaking bread together; Seeing each other face to face and in group, adds something special; And the effort made to travel to be together makes us appreciate the opportunity even more.
Recently I’ve seen a few social media posts from a guy who has been working out for 11 years. I don’t follow him and can’t remember his name right now but basically he is in decent shape but not super muscular. He also shared the image in poor lighting that didn’t highlight his muscles like you see most fitness influencers do.
He got ridiculed. Most comments were all about how he should look a lot bigger after all that time. But the good news is that a lot of healthy, fit, natural body builders came to his defence.
People have a false sense of what it means to be fit because the people they see on social media are jacked up and have rather unrealistic physiques that are too hard to maintain. Some use steroids to enhance their growth. Others have chiseled abs, and that involves not just physical training but a very strict diet. And of course they only take photos in the best light after doing a ‘pump’ to maximize their size.
Here’s the reality: adding just 10 pounds of muscle is hard work! Adding 10 more after gaining your first 10 is significantly harder.
Six years ago I was overweight and started a fitness journey that I’m still on. It took me a year to lose just over 25 pounds. I did this with regular cardio, weights, and reducing my snacking using intermittent fasting, (basically, no snacking food from dinner to a late breakfast 5 days a week). I accomplished this in one year, then it took me 5 years to build my weight back up with 13-14 pounds of good weight. That’s right, my gains average are less than 3 pounds a year… and I’m thrilled with my progress.
Gaining muscle is hard. Unless you take the route of unhealthy supplements like steroids, you aren’t going to bulk up any time soon. Will you see results from your hard work? Yes. Will that mean that you get a lot stronger? Yes. Will you see a massive difference in the size of your muscles? Probably not without considerable effort over a long period of time.
Being fit doesn’t mean that your body looks like a body builder. It doesn’t mean that you walk around with six -pack abs. It does likely mean that you are feeling better and stronger than you were a year ago. It does mean that you are making small gains that you might notice even if others don’t.
Don’t buy into the delusions of ideal fitness that influencers share on social media. They aren’t sharing the sacrifices they make to look like they do. They are sharing month old images of when they were jacked up for a competition because they can’t maintain that look day to day… or they are making unrealistic dietary or lifestyle sacrifices to keep looking that way, so that they can sell you their program, or suppliments.
Find a way to make fitness part of your life, so that your quality of life can be better in the years to come. That’s it, that’s all. And once you’ve figured that out, appreciate all the small gains, because realistically that’s all you’ll see, small gains over time… and that’s a good thing no matter what the bulked up and juiced up influencers say.
