Tag Archives: statistics

1.5 billion beats

I just started a new audio book, Scale, by Geoffrey West. I learned that almost all life forms have an average of about 1.5 billion heartbeats in their lives. Mice have faster heart rates, and die sooner as a result. Turtles and whales live over 100 years with their slower heartbeats. But fast or slow, it seems animals end up with about the same number of beats if they live a full life.

I find statistics like this fascinating. How is it that this is a constant when so many other factors come into play, and when so many evolutionary traits went in different directions? Trunks, blow holes, shells, horns, fins, arms, wings, marsupial tails, all evolve with different purposes, but our many sized hearts all give our different species the same amount of beats.

We may not have the same appendages, we may be all different sizes and shapes, and we all have different amount of time on this planet… but all our mechanical clocks tick the same number of times. Amazing!

By the numbers

It’s staggering to look at the hospitalization numbers coming in, now that millions of people have been vaccinated. It’s simple: get vaccinated and you are extremely unlikely to end up in the hospital even if you still catch the Delta variant. But what are the motivations of the unvaccinated to change their minds? Travel. Not safety, not protecting others in the community, but the fear of travel restrictions without proof of vaccination.

I don’t watch TV but I’ve been going on TikTok for a 1/2 hour or less, (I keep a time limit in this addictive app), and I follow a lot of doctors and epidemiologists on the site. What I find is that about 1/2 of their posts are about research results and the other half tend to be responsive to comments they get on previous posts. Some of these questions are good, even if they question the results. Some are responses to asinine ignorance.

Many people don’t know how to do, or understand, the necessary math. Here is a fictitious example of a deceiving headline: “50% of new cases are vaccinated“. That sounds like the vaccine isn’t working. But later in the article it says that 80% of the population is vaccinated. Making the math simple, if there were 100 people and 4 got covid, that would mean two non-vaccinated and two vaccinated people contracted the virus (50% each). But the population was 20 unvaccinated and 80 vaccinated, so while the cases were 50-50, the chances of getting covid work out like this:

Unvaccinated: 2/20 = 10%

Vaccinated: 2/80 = 2.5%

While the headline makes it seem like the vaccine isn’t working, the unvaccinated are four times more likely to contract the virus in this example. This doesn’t even factor in the significant increase of risk of hospitalization/death for the non-vaccinated.

Right now two things are causing headlines like this to proliferate:

1. A balance of ignorance and desire to get clicks and views: Reporters not understanding the math themselves and rushing to get the attention-gaining headline out.

2. Deliberate malice: People who know exactly what they are doing and want to promote an anti-vax narrative.

As we move forward and the numbers will start to be more available as well as more obvious. Will that make a difference? Probably not for those that are entrenched. It’s not the numbers that will change people’s minds, it will be the (proclaimed) limitations on their liberties, like travel… and buckle up because this isn’t going to happen without a lot of whining and complaints.

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Related: I’d rather be a sheep than a lemming

0.9 Percent

There are well over 5 million people in BC. Yesterday less than 50,000 people were vaccinated. Less than 1 percent. I know things are ramping up, and many good people are doing the best they can to support quick (and fair) distribution of the vaccine. And I know 50,000 vaccinations in a single day is good… But when I see the challenges the US has, and the fact that they have vaccinated as many as they have, it makes me wonder what else we could be doing? And what else should have already happened?

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I don’t want to jump the queue, but I want everyone who wants a vaccine to get it faster than the current rate. It should be possible to make this happen.

By the numbers

Documented worldwide cases of Covid-19 have surpassed 3 million people. The US will surpass 1 million of those later today. Canada will surpass 50,000 this week. And sadly, over 200,000 people have died as a result of contracting this virus.

Canada and California are similar in population size, both are doing a good job keeping the number of people infected down, and both are still dealing with 1,000 to 1,500+ new cases a day.

The good news, hospitals here on the North American west coast are not inundated like they have been in Italy, Spain, and New York. The challenging news, we are not out of the woods yet and diligence must be maintained… especially as we move to reopen parts of the economy.

I’m no longer making predictions about what things will look like in the coming weeks and months… the virus isn’t a weather system coming in from the west and bringing rainfall. It has a life of its own. While we have considerable influence as a community, and as citizens who want to keep the spread of the virus down, we also have to respond to new outbreaks and change our habits as suggested by health authorities.

It will be a dance… Opening things up, tightening things up, closing things down, permitting small gatherings, and then recommendations against them. The numbers will dictate what makes sense. And while that’s easy to say, as we do the dance, it will feel like the songs aren’t staying on long enough for us to get used to the rhythm.

It won’t feel like things are normal for quite some time. And that’s not the new normal, that’s a level of stress and uncertainty that will loom for a while. I was trying to avoid paying attention to the numbers, but I realize now that they are something tangible that I can pay attention to. I can see patterns, and try to understand why we are getting the provincial and federal health and social distancing advice that we are getting.

The numbers aren’t complete, they don’t tell the whole story, but they tell us when things are headed in the right versus the wrong direction. Whether they grow incrementally or exponentially, they tell us a story, and we should be aware of when that story changes… and be prepared for new changes to our rules of social and work engagement when they do.