Tag Archives: logic

Changing Our Opinions…

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I recently wrote Certainty Versus Evidence, and concluded with, “Seek out wise people who are smart enough to be humble, and uncertain, and as curious as you are… And don’t let yourself get stuck in concrete thinking.”

It really comes down to the idea that we need to be willing to change our opinions and our point of view when more information comes our way.

This means:

  • We need to respectfully listen to alternative points of view.
  • We need to ask clarifying questions.
  • We need to challenge our own assumptions.
  • We need to be humble enough to recognize that we don’t know everything.
  • We need to keep learning.

It always surprises me the that changing of one’s opinion is seen as weak. To me it’s a sign of strength. Openly admitting that you’ve changed your mind based on new evidence is a superpower. It means you don’t have a fixed mindset.

The difference between this and being gullible is that you aren’t easily persuaded, but rather data driven. You aren’t blindly believing new information, you are discerning, measuring, calculating, and being inquisitive.

We aren’t having our minds changed, we are changing our minds.

It’s not hard to do this when your new opinion fits with the views of those around you, but if that’s not the case, a simple change of opinion could be very challenging. I think both Copernicus and Galileo would agree with me.

It’s a big step to openly change your mind on a challenging topic. It takes strength of mind and will to do so, and it is a sign that you are willing to learn and grow. Certainty is the enemy of understanding, compassion, and growth. Ultimately if we are willing to change our opinions, we are willing to change and grow.

Certainty Versus Evidence

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We are living through an epidemic of certainly at the expense of evidence.

Selectively chosen facts are sprinkled on emboldened ideas that sit like concrete, embedded deep in the minds of people who are certain they are right. Contrary evidence is tossed aside. If it doesn’t fit my truth or my world view then, it’s wrong, it’s misinterpreted, it’s fake news.

When scientists discover galaxies that are too large for the age that they are, considering when they were born, early in the development of the universe… it makes them ponder the theories they hold. Scientists are excited by this puzzle. What’s at play here? Is it a challenge of our evidence collection or are there other theories that may be better? This is the thrill of being at the forefront of science. It’s the idea that we continue to learn and reformulate our theories and make them better.

But to certainty focused, evidence lacking, non-scientific ‘experts’ (in their own minds), this new data is a chance to mock scientists; To emphasize that ‘they don’t know anything’ about the universe. This new evidence isn’t scientific evidence but rather proof that all science is wrong. These new galaxies are evidence of a higher power, or worse, a flat world.

We have people selling water bottles that make hydrogen water that’s somehow supposed to be better than just drinking water. Every commercial for supplements or diets or exercise plans tell you how the evidence is clear and this is the product that will transform your life.

I recently saw this fascinating video about a bug that shoots acid from its butt as a defensive mechanism. It was a totally interesting and engaging video for over 2 minutes, then it started into an unexpected conclusion of Intelligent Design and became an anti-evolution propaganda video that I had to stop watching. But I did wonder how many people bought into this, and I peeked at the comments which were filled with comments like, ‘God is amazing’.

‘Follow your own Truth’, with a capital ‘T’. Cherry pick your evidence and strengthen your certainty. That’s what it seems more and more people are doing these days. The certainty epidemic is growing and it’s getting harder and harder to sift through the BS, and actually know what evidence to follow.

The only anecdote is to stay curious and ask questions. Seek out wise people who are smart enough to be humble, and uncertain, and as curious as you are… And don’t let yourself get stuck in concrete thinking.

Bad questions

One of the dumbest tropes in education is that, ‘There is no such thing as a bad question’. Yes, yes there is. Yes there are. There are many bad questions. We live in a world filled with bad questions.

Why are people still asking if climate change is real? Why do people still question if the world is flat? Why do people still question evolution and want creationism taught in classrooms?

Because we live in a world where bad questions are asked and people respond to them. With each justification there is a rebuttal, and when millions of people hear the dumb, illogical, misleading, and inaccurate rebuttals some of them will believe these bad ideas.

Bad ideas spread from debating bad questions.

Good questions deserve debate. Bad questions should be ignored… or redirected. ‘Is climate change real’ is a dumb question based on a bad idea. A better question is, ‘We know humans are impacting the climate, what can be done to reduce that impact?’ Spending time rationalizing the first question is literally giving the question too much power, and the ignorant responses an opportunity to be shared.

It’s worth saying this again, it’s the problem we face today across many fields, spreading through news and social media… and when we participate, we are part of the problem:

Bad ideas spread from debating bad questions.

So the next time someone tells you there is no such thing as a bad question, you might want to disagree, just don’t waste too much time debating the point.

Slight of mind

About 15 years ago I played around with card and slight of hand magic. I’d practice while watching TV, and I’d watch ‘how to’ videos to improve. I gave it up only because I found I needed constant practice or I got rusty. It felt like too much work to do really well. But for a short time I could pull of some really cool magic tricks. One of my friend’s kids only knew me as Magic Dave.

One of the most important parts of a good magic trick is the build-up, or the backstory. Suggesting that what you are about to do is mysterious is a lot different than saying ‘I’m about to trick you”. Another key aspect is actually pulling the trick off in a smooth way that doesn’t leave room to question how it was done. Story, mystery, then evidence. And when the story is good, people want to believe.

People want to believe. That’s why conspiracy theories pull so many people in. It’s not because they are dumb, it’s because they want to believe and so they are looking for clues that fit the story. One of the best ways to pull off a magic trick is to promise that you are going to reveal how it’s done, but then still leave some mystery on the table.

Conspiracy theories promise to show you behind the curtain, or under the table. Then they ask the mysterious question, “Why are they hiding this from us?” And the ‘they‘ that are mentioned are the government, or the military, or scientists. This becomes the thing to question. And that’s the slight of mind trick. It’s not the (usually bad) evidence they are sharing that should be questioned, what should be questioned is why are they hiding this from us?

Faith in the story becomes more important than facts, because facts can be falsified or manipulated by ‘them‘. They have the money and the resources to pull the wool over your eyes. They want to keep you in the dark. They can’t be trusted.

What’s never considered is how many people would have to be lying. If you tell two people a secret it’s no longer a secret. For example, it’s one thing to say that NASA is lying about the the moon landing. But to believe that every single person in NASA, and every astronaut that has been in space, and that every person working on ground control are choosing to keep that a secret is to believe the impossible. To follow one misguided person making false statements and saying, this is the only person brave enough to tell the truth’ is to be pulled in by mystery and intrigue, but not by reality. Because in reality the ‘they‘ that are keeping things secret are just far too numerous to keep anything a secret.

Watch my hands. See the coin disappear into thin air. It’s only possible because you believe, or because matter isn’t what it seems to be, or because I can move the coin back in time or… [insert reasons explained as evidence here]. Follow the story, the mystery, and the evidence is more believable. It doesn’t matter that I misdirected you, it only matters that the story is compelling and that you are left with questions.

As an aside, learning what I did ruined the magic of magic for me. I see magic tricks that baffle people and I make several immediate assumptions about how it’s done, and I no longer marvel at the trick anymore. This makes me question the pushers of conspiracy theories, do they really believe or do they just like performing these slight of mind tricks and fooling people?

Science and stupidity

If you haven’t been paying attention to the discoveries of the James Webb telescope, you are missing out on an opportunity to really understand what Science is all about. Scientists start with a hypothesis then they look for reasons for that hypothesis to be wrong. That’s happening right now.

“…results from the James Webb Space Telescope have hinted at galaxies so early and so massive that they are in tension with our understanding of the formation of structure in the universe. Various explanations have been proposed that may alleviate this tension. But now a new study from the Cosmic Dawn Center suggests an effect which has never before been studied at such early epochs, indicating that the galaxies may be even more massive.” (Source)

These ‘too massive’ galaxies do not jive with current hypothesis, and they challenge what scientists think they know about the origins of the universe. These discoveries are forcing our greatest scientific minds to question their own research and beliefs.

Meanwhile, we still have people believing that the world is flat and that for some unknown reason NASA is nothing more than an instrument of the government used to keep us in the dark about our flat world… As if there is some mastermind ploy to keep us ‘in the dark’ because [input ridiculous theory here].

Oh, and as for these ‘look at the horizon, it’s flat just like the earth’ believers? Any time a scientist course corrects and changes their hypothesis, or admits that they have new insights and information, is proof that they don’t know what they are talking about. This process of learning more and changing trajectories isn’t seen as an incredibly brilliant approach to new discoveries. Instead it’s seen as a weakness in thinking. But they don’t see the weaknesses of their own ideas, and the inadequacies that their ‘evidence’.

But this isn’t just about flat-earthers. It’s about unscientific and conspiracy thinking that seems to be growing. Scepticism in science is being confused with scepticism of scientific thinking. Terms like ‘sheeple’ are used to describe people who believe in science, in NASA, and in things like research at CERN. With CERN there is even a conspiracy theory that it is the cause of the Mandela Effect. The basis for this? Nothing.

It’s sad that there is such an anti-intellectual movement happening right now. It seems that people have access to as much misinformation as they do information, and for a small but every growing number of people the misinformation, the un-scientific ‘evidence’ is more compelling than what our best and brightest scientists think… And somehow a guy making videos based on conjecture and stupidity in his basement gets to have equal or more airtime than the brightest minds on our globe, who are making amazing new discoveries about the universe.

Not even wrong

“Not even wrong” is a phrase often used to describe pseudoscience or bad science. It describes an argument or explanation that purports to be scientific but uses faulty reasoning or speculative premises, which can be neither affirmed nor denied and thus cannot be discussed rigorously and scientifically… The phrase is generally attributed to the theoretical physicist Wolfgang Pauli, who was known for his colorful objections to incorrect or careless thinking. (Wikipedia)

I love this term. A great example of where this applies is to flat earthers.

Another is deniers of the moon landing.

These ‘believers’ have to deny volumes of evidence. They have to believe that so many people are conspiring to lie, across political party lines, and across international borders… with the sole purpose of keeping a massive secret that doesn’t benefit anyone to keep.

What surprises me is the willingness of bright people to engage in debate with these pseudoscientists and crackpots. The reality is that these are such bad ideas that they do not deserve to be put on equal footing with good ideas.

Why argue with someone who is so intellectually dishonest that they aren’t even wrong?

Compliance and conspiracy

The biggest problem with most conspiracy theories is that they require way too much compliance from too many people to be true. Secrets are hard to keep. Big secrets are impossible. The idea that hundreds or thousands of people are somehow in on the conspiracy and yet it still isn’t known to the vast majority of people is unlikely.

Want to keep a secret? Tell no one. Not a single person. Because if you yourself can’t keep that secret, how will others keep it? Why would others keep it? How many spouses, best friends, and drinking buddies would find out?

The world is flat. Really? Every commercial pilot would need to be keeping that secret, and somehow be compliant in hiding impossible travel times in some far-fetched scheme that would also include countless passengers on certain flights.

The vaccine has a microchip in it that tracks your movement or controls your mind. Really? Do you really believe that technology has advanced so far that these things are possible at a microscopic level? How many people would know about this? Who manufactures these devices? How many vaccine production companies faculties, with how many employees wound have to be compliant? Impossible science with impossible amounts of people knowing and keeping it a secret.

The numbers just don’t add up. There is no such thing as a secret that 100 people know and keep. Move into thousands of people knowing and it’s simply impossible to remain a secret. In this day and age, there would be concrete evidence being shared by people. Contracts, videos, photographs, and stories backed by hard evidence.

Imagine if the thousands of people who designed and built the James Webb Space Telescope all knew the earth was flat, why would they build something that looked at round objects all over the galaxy that undermine their understanding of what the world looks like? Would not a single one of them feel like they were hypocrites? Not a single one of them would speak out?

You can’t have so many people involved and keep a secret. Human beings are incapable of this. And yet most conspiracy theories demand this level of compliance for information to stay secret, and for the theory to be more than a theory and actually exist.

Flat earth and flight times

I’ve already shared this clip where you,

“just need to go to 5:46 of this video, and watch until 12:48.

https://youtu.be/JTfhYyTuT44?t=346

This 7 minutes is all you need to debunk Flat Earthers.”

But forget about the science for a moment, forget about the videos from space, and forget about what the shadow of the earth looks like on the moon.

What gets me is how flat earthers think time zones and plane travel work? We have decades of flight traffic data, and every day flights take off and land in predictable times between set locations. If the world were flat there would be some split in between 2 locations that would be impossible. Let’s say the split is somewhere between Hawaii and Japan. Take the globe and flatten it out with Hawaii on the Far West and Japan on the Far East. Then how can the flight between these two places be only 8.5 hours? Meanwhile, going the other way, it takes over 11 hours from Hawaii to Newfoundland… how could a plane go from one side of the flat earth to the other side so quickly?

No matter where you decide to draw the lines for a flat earth, we have flights travelling daily that would have to beat all airspeed records to accomplish landing on time, if they couldn’t go around the earth and instead had to fly the opposite way to avoid the edge. Put a flat earther on one of those flights, and that should defy any proof they think they might have. That should be the only evidence needed. Yet I guess it’s not enough.

That’s the weird thing about conspiracy theories like this… They don’t stand up to any evidence and yet people stick to them. To anyone who seriously and vehemently stands by the idea that the world is flat, do me a favour: draw the lines in the sand. Tell me where the edge is that separates east from west, then tell me how the flights between a city on the east and a city on the west can be achieved so quickly?