Tag Archives: future

Cold, dark universe

Take a half hour and watch TIMELAPSE OF THE FUTURE: A Journey to the End of Time

The current theories about the future of the universe is that it will expand into vast, empty, cold darkness. Even before all this happens the universe will be a very lonely place with stars moving away so fast that our telescopes would not be able to see them. Of course the timeline for this happening is so unfathomably long it simply isn’t conceivable. How inconceivable?

Life will only be possible for this percentage of time of the universe’s existence:

This would be utterly depressing if the scale of time wasn’t so enormous. But on this scale, if I looked forward 1,000 generations, that too would be a blip in time, with almost no change in the universe described in this film happening yet. We have a lot more immediate concerns about humanity’s survival than the expansion and aging of the universe.

I wonder if our universe isn’t like a lonely atom in empty space… a simple speck in a multiverse of distant universes that are oblivious to the existence of other atom-like universes also floating in empty space. Maybe some universes are aware of each other, quantum entangled with each other, playing out inverse existences. And maybe they are all entangled, universe-particles in a cosmic wave, vibrating in every possible direction. Grab your surfboards, it’s time to surf the cosmos.

Strong Opinions, Weakly Held

Stanford University professor Paul Saffo is a futurist and future forecaster who coined the phrase, “Strong opinions, weakly held.”

I love this idea. One of the biggest problems today is that too many people have strong opinions that are strongly held. Well, maybe the biggest problem is that too many people have incorrect, unsubstantiated, or uninformed strong opinions that are strongly held. And these poorly formulated strong opinions are exactly the kind of thing that gets magnified on social media… they incite interaction that is more likely to become viral by attracting both opposing views, and the attention of equally like minded, strongly held opinions. Strong opinions, weakly held don’t pull as much social media attention, mainly because these aren’t opinions that people need to shout about online.

The power of strong opinions, weakly held is that ‘strong opinions’ allow you to ‘see’ and be passionate about your perspective, while being ‘loosely held’ allows you to take newly found information and adjust or change your strong opinions.

Case in point: Flat Earthers are the perfect example of strong opinions strongly held. Any evidence given to them doesn’t matter, it’s immediately cast as false or contrived by people conspiring against them. And so no matter the proof given to them, their strong opinion of a flat earth stay unchanged.

Imagine if doctors and scientists held such strong opinions? We’d probably still be blood letting with leaches to treat a fever, and not washing our hands before dealing with open wounds, surgery, and childbirth. Progress comes from being able to let go of conventions and norms that keep us stuck in our current frame of thinking.

Nothing wrong with strong opinions, they are just better off loosely held.

4-day work week

Maybe it’s my age, but I really wish the work week was just 4 days long. Too often a weekend feels too short. It’s not even about rest, it’s about wanting to do more in such a short time.

We’ve had a few 3-day weekends recently and I’ve really noticed a significant difference compared to this past 2-day weekend. I got stuff done beyond the ‘need to do’ stuff when I had one more day.

I don’t know the history behind the 5-day work week, and frankly I don’t care to look it up. It doesn’t matter what the reason was, it just doesn’t seem necessary anymore. Add an hour a day to the school day, Monday to Thursday, and Fridays get added to the weekend.

What would it take to make this happen? Whose game to try?

Food and fuel insecurity

Since the pandemic started we’ve seen shortages in both consumable items and merchandise, which we haven’t seen before in my lifetime. I recently paid over $2.40 per litre of gas, and can remember being upset at having to pay over $2 not that long ago. Early in the pandemic it was toilet paper that was scarce to find, but that was driven by fear of shortages. More recently I’ve seen the back of empty shelves where I have not seen them before, ranging from items in the butcher section, to baking items, to well known products that usually seem to have an endless supply.

And I think things will get worse before they get better.

Parts of Europe are being deforested by concerned citizens collecting firewood, by people uncertain if they will be able to afford heating fuel in the coming winter. Food banks are reporting record number of people needing their service. And certain items including basic food items will be both in short supply and more expensive than ever before.

This is not fear mongering, and it’s also not all doom and gloom, end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it, but life in general is going to get more expensive with less purchasing power and choice for a while.

How will this pan out over the next few years? It’s hard to guess because the issues of inflation, money devaluation, questions of war, and a shaky stock market are far beyond my understanding. What I suspect is that this global economic downturn is not something we will just have to deal with this winter, but something that we will deal with through all of 2023 and beyond.

We can live without our favourite brand of cereal in our grocery stores. We can wait longer than we hoped for an appliance or a new car to arrive after ordering it. What we can’t do is sustain gas and food prices that make it impossible for lower-middle class and poorer families to sustain themselves on their inflation-diminishing salaries for an extended period of time… while grocery stores and oil companies generate record quarters of profits. At what point do large corporations recognize that their record profits will fall when a significant part of the population has no buying power?

My fear is that it has to get a lot worse before significant system change will happen. In the mean time, prepare to watch your purchasing power fall over the next year and beyond.

AI video

If you’ve seen my blog on social media or on my website (as opposed to in your mailbox), you’ve seen images I created in Dall•E 2. Like these, along with my requests that created them:

“A man walking in a forest path and hugging a tree in a pastel drawing”

“A Picasso drawing of a young man walking in a forest surrounded by clocks”

“A small man on a giant piece of paper trying to write with an oversized pen that is bigger than the person”

“A person standing at the intersection of a path that leads to a choice of a dark, loomy forest or a bright open field in a van Gogh style”

“A transparent head with a tree, an ocean wave, cogs, math symbols, a protractor, and science lab equipment inside the brain. 

“A hand squeezing the film coming out of a reel of film with a movie projector in the background in a vector style”

“A vapourware drawing of a kid running with a kite in his hand. 

“Headphones in the ear of a dark haired man, in a Kandinsky style 

—-

I write a description and it gives me 4 options to choose from. I don’t always get exactly what I had in mind, but if it’s too far off from my expectation then I just refine my wording and try again.

Well now Meta AI has come up with Make-A-Video, which creates video clips from descriptions. The examples on the website download onto my phone as images rather than video clips, so you’ll need to visit there to see them.

This is exciting stuff in the field of video creation and soon it will also become so good that you won’t be able to distinguish it from a real video. The creativity that’s possible is exciting. I think this is just the tip of the iceberg and soon we’ll see all kinds of fascinating uses for this tool.

Artificial Intelligence is just getting better and better and in the field of creative arts this is going to really change the landscape of what is possible.

(Also, I recognize that there are some scary deep fake implications, but for now I’m just excited to see what people do creatively with this tool.)

Unsustainable and increasing inequality

Here is page 7 of an OXFAM report, Inequity Kills:

What’s not necessarily well known is that the Forbes and Bloomberg ‘Top 10 Richest’ lists never includes some of the richest and wealthiest families which have accumulated wealth above and beyond anyone on these lists… there is a lot more extreme wealth than these lists suggest.

Add to this the first two sentences in the report’s summary:

“A new billionaire has been created every 26 hours since the pandemic began. 6 The world’s 10 richest men have doubled their fortunes, while over 160 million people are projected to have been pushed into poverty.”

This kind of lopsided wealth distribution simply can’t be sustained. And yet in the hardest times of the pandemic, when many low wage people couldn’t work, prices and inflation skyrocketed while corporations that produce oil, and sell groceries, reported their greatest profits in years. They also returned their largest dividends to stock holders… most of whom are already very rich and can afford to hold a significant amount of stocks. We’ve all heard the saying, ‘The rich get richer while the poor get poorer,’ and it seems that this is more true now than it ever has.

I stumbled onto this report after reading this article on NPR, “Move over, Jeff Bezos. India’s richest man is now wealthier than the Amazon founder“. The Billionaire club used to be almost exclusively a Saudi and USA thing, other than old family wealth, but now it’s a global phenomenon. Everywhere in the world there are small groups of people accumulating wealth in significant size, while there are populations in significant size that are dropping below the poverty line. This simply isn’t sustainable. That said, I don’t see anything upsetting this trend in the near future. Further, I’m at a loss to think of how this will change in the coming years?

At what point does a society with a few people owning more than half of the global wealth become unproductive for the wealthy? The abject poor can’t by the products the rich manufacture. The suffering middle class with less-than-ever disposable income, and more-than-ever accumulated debt soon won’t be able to help either. So what breaks? How does this self-correct?

I certainly don’t have any answers.

Nationalism vs Globalism

I remember reading The World is Flat back in 2006 and thinking about how our world had changed.

I hired a patent lawyer in India shortly after that and paid less than 10% of what I would have paid in Canada (a story for another time). I recognized the value of outsourcing, and seeing the entire globe as a single supply chain. It was a time of breaking down walls and getting access to whatever you needed, wherever you needed it, faster and cheaper. We have benefited greatly from this as consumers of products, many of which are made of component parts that are manufactured in different countries around the world, then delivered to our local stores, or dropped off at our doorstep.

But the tides are changing and we could very well see a move away from the globalization we’ve been benefiting from. Shortages and supply chain issues have been issues across the globe. War, fuel costs, inflation (or stagflation), compounded with severe weather systems affecting crops, have all led to things we haven’t seen in decades: Jumps in prices, delays in delivery, and shortages in products leaving some shelves bare in our grocery store.

This is all leading to a shift from globalism to nationalism. Why would a country export a product desperately needed in their own country? Why rely on a component part being made slightly cheaper in another country when shipping and supply are causing delays in production of the final product? What is a country to do when neighbouring countries don’t trade enough food, because they are focussing on feeding themselves? And the food that is coming in is very expensive due to increased transportation costs.

All these changes lead to a more nationalistic approach. An approach counter to the globalization that brought us such prosperity, with an endless supply of cheap food and goods. Is this the end of globalization? Probably not, but it could be the start of a rebalancing where countries get more nationalistic, and things get tougher for a while.

High prices, shortages of products, and a focus on countries protecting themselves from dependencies on other countries…dependencies that we relied on to create a global economy that brought us better, and more affordable products faster than ever before. Things really might get worse before they get better. And while I believe that there will be a return to globalization, I’m not convinced it will happen any time soon.

A broken system

Here is the opening of the following article: Economist explains record corporate profits despite rising inflation

“Prices are up all over the place – at the gas pump, at the grocery store, at the car lot. This week, the [US] federal government reported a 7.5% increase in the cost of goods all across the board compared to a year ago. The consumer price index showed a 4% rise in housing, a 12% increase in the price of meat, and the cost to buy a used car is up more than 40%.

But here’s another reality. While families are dealing with sticker shock, profits for companies that put these goods on shelves – well, those are skyrocketing. Data from the U.S. Commerce Department shows that corporate profit margins are the largest they’ve been in 70 years…”

Essentially during the most difficult economic times we’ve seen in decades, companies have gouged consumers in order to maximize profits. While car owners pay dearly for transportation, oil and gas companies are recording record profits for their shareholders. Meanwhile the price of gas remains painfully high.

The shareholder model of capitalism is broken. The corporation might create or distribute a desired product, but neither the product nor the end user is what is being served. The customer is the shareholder, and their desire is profit; Not a great product, not a value to the end user, just profit per share.

The CEO does not meet bonus numbers due to end-user satisfaction surveys. The CEO does not answer to anyone except a board, who themselves want to see high profits. The middle managers knows that their main job is to manage and care for the people under them, but their incentives are almost always number driven, and they know that profit is the priority.

It’s the tragedy of the shareholder: self interest for personal profit, without consideration of anything else. Profit at the expense of common good. Maybe there was a time when companies cared about the end user, when customer satisfaction trumped shareholder satisfaction, but stock prices and shareholder greed are the only things capitalism seems to feed these days. The idea that during a pandemic, rampant inflation, and supply chain shortages, a company will seek maximum profits and gains is capitalism at its worst. The almighty dollar is all that matters.

Meanwhile, what are these companies doing with the excess cash? They are buying back shares which a) keeps the prices of shares up, b) pays their shareholders who get to ‘sell high’, and c) make themselves look more financially attractive to new investors. The high profits create the promise of still higher profits, providing wealthy shareholders a chance to see gains in a market that the people they are gouging with unnecessary price increases can’t afford to participate in or gain from.

The system is rigged so only the shareholders win. Oh, and will these companies share the windfall with their employees? Only the upper echelon who already earn healthy 6 and 7 figure salaries will see bonuses, but not the majority of workers who face high inflation and cost of living increases and are actually falling further behind. Their wage increases, if they get any, won’t match inflation.

I don’t know how to fix it, but the system is broken. While stories like this show promise, for providing fair wages to employees, the stock and shareholder model doesn’t really provide avenues for this to happen. Instead, while the vast majority of citizens around the world are poorer now compared to before the pandemic (with respect to buying power), shareholders are seeing the best returns in decades.

Sometime technology s(UX)

I used to have one remote for my TV, now I have 3. One of them is for my sound bar. When I turn the sound bar on, (on its own, it turns on automatically for the tv), in order to connect to my phone. Before I can click the input options, I need to wait 6 or 7 seconds while the sound bar scrolls ‘WELCOME’ across its small screen 3 or 4 times.

Just now I decided I want to have a song on repeat on my phone and it took me over a minute to figure out how to do this. Sure, I was given the choice to do many things with the song…

But the simple option to hit repeat was elusive on the main screen.

Yesterday I wanted to drag a song into GarageBand and it kept being added at 4 times the speed. I found out GarageBand needs the song to be a specific speed. I checked, same speed. Then I learned it had to be a specific format, so I had to duplicate the song in the new format. Now I’ve got two versions of the song in iTunes and need to delete one, but which one, they look identical in iTunes? 3 years ago this was a seamless activity that I never struggled with no matter what format I worked with.

Is it just me or is technology getting more confusing and less user-friendly. And no, my sound bar scrolling ‘WELCOME WELCOME WELCOME WELCOME’ while being fully inoperative is NOT user friendly!

I want to use my credit card at a gas station, not only must I put in my pin, I need to say how much I want to spend as a maximum. Every instant teller I go to asks me what language I want to work in… how hard would it be for the machine to know my preference after asking once? And as for autocorrect… it’s getting worse, not better.

I love my tech, but it seems to me that technology is all about adding features, and not about user experience (UX). The user is forgotten as new bells and whistles are added. Or things are so locked down that I need Face ID, a confirmation text, and coming soon, a DNA scan. Between new features and new security measures, there seems little time spent thinking about what the experience is for the end user.

So for any tech designers out there, here is a little tip, we don’t need to be greeted by inanimate objects, and if we are, allow us to actually use the object while it’s welcoming us.

Back to (almost) normal

Tonight, at the Inquiry Hub grad, will be the first time in a few years where I’m going to be talking to a live audience larger than a classroom. This is just another example of things going back to normal… except in 2019, when I spoke it was to an audience of most of the students and parents from our school. This year we only invited the grads and their parents, not the whole community.

The reason for the bigger audience in 2019 is that our grad isn’t just a grad, it’s an annual celebration with awards and we used to invite everyone. But the school was smaller and in 2020 we were planning to move to a bigger venue before the pandemic cancelled the big event. For 2022, after 2 years of grads crossing the stage individually with just their family in the audience, we chose this year to host only the grads at this event and to stream the event live for everyone else.

This is probably something we’ll do from now on. Times change. Traditions change. What’s ‘normal’ changes. That’s the theme of my speech, that normal changes, and this could be a good thing. We don’t have to go back to what used to be pre-pandemic. We can change things up, make things better, blend old and new.

When my family moved to China it was a major culture shock. Things changed for us drastically, and we adapted. When we returned from China, that was a really stressful point in my marriage. My wife and I fell back into old habits, but we weren’t the same people anymore. It was a major adjustment and a lot of work to create a new connection and relationship that wasn’t just the version from two years previous.

This is an exciting time to be living in, we’ve just had a very foreign two year experience, and now we’ve got to decide what do we keep from the pre-pandemic experience, and what do we change, for the better, thanks to living through the pandemic experience?

What’s the new normal that’s better than the old normal?