Tag Archives: Covid-19

Making history

We are living through one of the biggest social experiments in history. We are getting thousands of data points all over the world that show us what the Delta variant is doing…

In Florida:


And in India:

In comparison to Iceland and the UK:

The difference in deaths is directly related to the number of people in less and more vaccinated areas.

And in Mississippi and Louisiana:


Want to guess what the death rate will look like in these highly unvaccinated areas?

Where does the social experiment come in? India didn’t have ready access to vaccines, Florida, Mississippi, and Louisiana all did. Meanwhile, the Florida Governor has an order against mask mandates in schools. Over the coming months we get to see large scale data sets on how decisions like this affect the lives and deaths of people in different places. We get to see what happens when people put themselves before their communities, and what fear can do to undermine society.

Decades from now there will be case studies in textbooks that will discuss the differences in preventable deaths. There will be questions about how to prevent this in a future pandemic. There will be models to show how devastating this kind of response would be if the same pandemic response happened with a virus that is 3, 10, or 20 times more contagious and/or deadly.

The Delta variant, which is affecting younger people more indiscriminately than the original variant, is quickly becoming the great un-equalizer. It is quickly revealing how a good response to the pandemic fairs so much better than a bad response. The sad part is that it’s doing this with hospitalization and deaths.

Equally as sad is that many younger kids and immune compromised people that do not have a choice to get a vaccine will suffer because of people who are able to take an available vaccine and choose not to. The unvaccinated, that are so by choice, are creating a giant social experiment where they are playing with people’s lives, and the data that’s coming out is proving this.

The worse part is that they are basing this choice on fear and misinformation. And as a PSA, the vaccine makes us safer, not safe.

Wear a mask. Practice social distancing. Stay safe.

Safer, not safe

There is no shortage of videos and social media posts sharing data that clearly demonstrates that the vaccine is saving lives. These include posts sharing that hospitals are being inundated with unvaccinated covid patients in areas where double-vaccinated populations are low. Today I saw a post of a teary-eyed man who thanked a doctor for his amazing videos because his mom finally got vaccinated after seeing several of the doctor’s videos that her son shared with her. With FDA approval for the Pfizer vaccine coming this week, I think even more people will chose to get vaccinated. That’s great news. It’s sad that so many people are still willing to remain unvaccinated, and it seems as though no amount of data, or scientific evidence will change their minds.

But there are concerns that I have for those that are already vaccinated. These concerns are social rather than medical. The Delta variant is far more contagious than the original covid strain. There are many more breakthrough cases (double vaccinated people catching and spreading covid) happening with Delta, and while the risk of hospitalization and death are very low compared to unvaccinated people, vaccinated people can still spread Delta.

So, to all the double-vaccinated people out there, please don’t be under the illusion that the vaccines have made you safe. You are safer, not safe. Still wear a mask in public places. Still pay attention to social distancing protocols. Still be part of the solution rather than adding to the problem. This isn’t just so that we protect ourselves, it is so that we protect our loved ones and our community. In heavily vaccinated places like Canada, if the vast majority of vaccinated people complied with mask and social distancing safety protocols, we can hopefully turn the current increase in cases into a small blip as opposed to a full on next wave.

It’s not lost on me that I’m asking the very people who have done the most to do more. But this is the population more likely to comply, and wearing masks and socially distancing is so much better than lockdowns and dangerously full hospitals.

The next wave

Here is what I know:

1. The Delta variant is treating Canada like it is treating the rest of the world… as a country with many hosts to spread.

2. Countries like Israel have already started giving booster shots to double-vaccinated people to decrease the spread of Delta.

3. We are a week and a half from opening schools here and things are not likely to be ‘back to normal’.

4. The FDA is going to approve the Pfizer vaccine next week, and that will convince some reluctant, or rather hesitant, people to finally get vaccinated.

Here is what I believe:

1. The unmasked, “Don’t worry I’m double-vaccinated” masses are almost as much a threat as the unvaccinated when it comes to Delta. We need to keep masks and social distancing going.

2. Booster shots will be yet another place for people to argue, but they will be instrumental in moving past covid in the next year… rather than the pandemic creeping into 2023 or even ’24.

3. I said over a year ago that things will start to move towards normal by January 2022. This seems more hopeful than likely right now.

4. There is enough data being shared by enough smart people with legitimate credentials to debunk anti-vaxer arguments, but more facts won’t change most anti-vaxer minds.

Here is what I hope:

1. I hope that vaccine approval below the age of 12 comes soon. Delta seems to be more contagious and adverse at younger ages.

2. I hope booster shots become something we can do in Canada, but I also hope to see more shots being provided to developing countries where vaccination numbers are low, not by choice but by lack of availability.

3. I hope that January 2022 starts with good news, and that not only is this 4th wave small, but that it is the last wave to make news for a very long time.

4. I hope that not too many unvaccinated people die before unvaccinated families see the correlation between high hospitalization and death statistics of unvaccinated people in relationship to low statistics for vaccinated people. Death of family members is an awful way to learn from your mistakes.

Still a hopeful timeline

I’ve been saying since before Christmas 2020 that, “Things will start to return to normal by January 2022.”

With the Delta variant being very contagious, and new variants like B.1.621.1 showing up on the US east coast, I don’t think school is going to start in September anywhere near as normal as we might have thought it would in June. Going into a busy coffee shop this morning, I was the only one wearing a mask, including the employees. The only covid precautions I saw were hand sanitizer at the entrance and the barista using tongs to put a straw into a cold drink.

I think new variants are going to give us a bit of a spanking, then we’ll smarten up and re-tighten up our precautions enough to slowly move in the right direction.

Although it may have seemed a bit pessimistic at the time, I am now hopefully optimistic that my prediction can be met. Despite the evidence of a 4th wave, it could be smaller, less alarming, less dangerous (thanks to the vaccine), and better managed. The ‘better managed’ is the key. We move forward with caution, or we move backwards.

Even if you are double vaccinated, wear a mask in public indoor spaces. Let’s keep these variants away.

What are the motives?

One of my pet peeves in education is people who talk about the fact that there are bad teachers, as if to say it is somehow unique to the teaching profession and not to any other profession. I’ve met proportionately very few teachers that I would consider bad compared to bad actors in many other professions. Another profession that seems to be low in bad actors, in my opinion, is medical doctors. Most people go into these professions wanting to serve and help others.

This is why I don’t understand the blatant disregard for well-being that seems to be present in anti-vaccine doctors. I went down a rabbit hole this morning, watching a well known podcaster, professor, and researcher speak to 2 doctors that clearly have compromised stances on covid 19. It was painful. Intelligent people making moronic claims [[update]]. One of them professing that he developed the MNRA vaccine process. One of them talking about about his carpet cleaner’s ailments after taking the vaccine, and how this person could not get anyone to share the horror of his story. I couldn’t get myself to watch the whole thing.

What I don’t understand is the motivation behind these otherwise intelligent people choosing to talk about science fiction and call it science? What’s the benefit? Who gains from this? Conspiracy theories depend on so many people acting in bad faith, people across the globe in different countries colluding and keeping secrets, all for the purpose of maintaining a narrative that makes no sense.

In BC, the spread of covid-19 in senior’s homes was an embarrassment. It benefited no one: not the homes that make money by recruiting more seniors; not the health municipalities that had to count the deaths; not the families that had to watch from a distance, unable to visit their loved ones. But it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that senior’s homes affected by covid had significantly more deaths than those not affected. Again, this was a provincial and even national embarrassment. Yet, conspiracy theorists talk about co-morbidity and try to pass these ‘extra’ deaths off as if they would have happened anyway. It’s so ignorant to do this, and yet it becomes a blanket statement that disregards examples like this that prove how dangerous this virus is.

And again for whose benefit? That’s the big question that baffles me? Who gains from promoting these dangerous ideas? I truly don’t know.

Ninety Nine point two percent

The Delta variant of Covid-19 is very contagious. We aren’t in the clear yet and coronavirus could still cause all kinds of issues for the us, if people don’t get vaccinated… but this isn’t just for the public good, it’s for you individually as well.

99.2 percent of over 18,000 recent Covid-19 deaths in the US have been people not fully vaccinated.

(link to TikTok)

Meanwhile, here in Canada, people are walking away from their second dose because it’s not the same vaccine… although the efficacy of this is not a concern.


(link to TikTok)

Here is more information on the Delta variant:

youtu.be/NmVQHK6RKQ8

Covid-19 will linger far more if everyone doesn’t do their part… and doing your part could save your life.

Mix and match vaccines

I got my 2nd vaccine dose last night. In the lineup I was asked, “First or second dose.”

“Second.”

“Which Vaccine did you get for your first shot?

“Pfizer.”

“We only have Moderna right now, are you ok with that?”

“Yes. I don’t care,” then I asked, “Are many people saying they do care?”

“Quite a few.”

This baffles me. The vast majority of people in BC had Pfizer as their first shot… a mRNA vaccine. Moderna is also an mRNA vaccine and there have not been any adverse affects from mixing. Also research on the efficacy of mixing vaccines seems very positive.

When I was asked which vaccine I got after sharing my first shot, I shared,

A good friend asked on Facebook: “Which one did you get Dave?”

My response, “The one I could get… I’m leaving it at that because I want to encourage others to do the same.”

Now I am sharing which ones I got because I would hope others will mix and match as needed to get vaccinated sooner, rather than delaying. We are getting much closer to living with some normalcy. The only mix and match stories that I could find that were negative were related to concerns when shots were mixed accidentally, months ago, before the positive research was out, and one article saying the short term effects might last a little longer.

Meanwhile, anecdotally, I’ve seen quite a few Pfizer/Pfizer vaccine recipients take more than a day off of work after getting their second vaccine, and most people that I know who have recently received Pfizer/Moderna have found the side effects are lasting less than 24 hours.

The other research I’ve seen suggests that mixing AstraZeneca with an mRNA vaccine seems to provide an even more robust immune response. So, I hope that no matter if you had AstraZeneca or Pfizer first, you would be willing to take Moderna second, rather than avoiding mixing and matching and delaying your second shot.

Good news on the vaccine front

I will admit that I’ve been critical of the vaccine rollout in Canada. I really thought that it took much too long to get things started. However, I now have to say that I’m very impressed with how things are going. Have a look at this chart as of yesterday:

It seems that Canada’s strategy of getting the first shot to as many people as possible is paying off. I get my second shot next week, and I just read that the new Canadian goal is to have every person from the age of 12 and up to be able to get their second shot by September… every person that wants it.

That’s the new challenge we face, how many people in our population will not choose to get vaccinated? With the Delta variant hitting the unvaccinated population extremely hard, Covid-19 is proving to be hearty and resilient. The Delta variant spreads very easily, and on average causes much harsher symptoms, putting more people in hospital than other variants.

Reducing the threat of this variant, and subsequent variants is best done with a comprehensive vaccine rollout. Reduce the likelihood of spread, and you also reduce the likelihood of mutation and new variants. The spread of measles provides a good lesson for us. Measles is preventable by vaccine and numbers have gone down for years heading into 2010. But the last decade has seen spikes due to anti-vaccine sentiment, and a larger population of unvaccinated kids in different populations.

Canada is lucky. For such a large country, we don’t have a massive population, and the population we do have predominantly lives in a narrow band near the US border. So, not many people, but mostly living in a concentrated area. This makes vaccine distribution easier on two fronts. The third and final frontier is the willingness of the population to do their part.

Our younger generation seems to be more willing to do their part than in other countries. As soon as the 18+ population were given the opportunity to get a vaccine in Canada, uptake has been good. Since younger age groups seems hard hit by the Delta variant in England, it is comforting to know that the Canadian population that had to wait the longest for their turn at getting the first shot have been so willing.

It’s good news all around in Canada, and so now as the vast majority of the population lines up for their 2nd shot, it’s my hope that we also see more people take advantage of their first shot. This is the challenge ahead of us. Not the rollout of the second shot, that is going very well. Rather it’s the rollout of the first shot to the population who seems hesitant to do their part. The closer we get to full immunity, the more likely we are to be protected from dangerous variants spreading through our communities… and our loved ones.

Masked in an Unmasked World

When we lived in China from 2009-2011, we would see people wearing masks when we were out in the community. They weren’t used by most people, but there were enough people that wore them that they became something you were quite accustomed to seeing. Certain places you would see them more frequently, two of these being on public transportation, and in large underground malls, common in the city of Dalian.

Also, you would see street vendors who made your food wearing them as well, or the staff at the back of restaurants or food stalls. It was a common courtesy for food handlers to wear a mask.

Basically, you’d see masks occasionally worn in public, and worn more frequently in crowded indoor spaces, and by people who served food. That makes a lot of sense. Another place we would see them is worn by students who had colds. Parents would still send them to school, but with a mask… and that’s far better than what happens here with young students sniffling and wiping their snot on their sleeves.

As the population slowly becomes double vaccinated and the Coronavirus numbers come down, I wonder what mask use will look like here in Canada? How common will mask-wearing be as we start to unmask?

My guess is that Asian cultures that are used to having masks around for over a decade since SARS and H1N1 will wear masks far more frequently than other cultures… simply because it is good etiquette to wear them in crowded public places. But will this be something that is looked upon as a gesture of safety and respect for others, or will this make them a target for racism?

Who else will we see wearing masks regularly? The immunocompromised, germaphobes, food handlers? Will there be many random people wearing masks because they feel comfortable doing so, or because they don’t feel 100% well and don’t want to spread anything? Or will mask-wearing be an anomaly in a sea of unmasked people, going about their business like Covid-19 never happened?

I think the acceptance of after-pandemic mask wearing will depend more on the continued spread of variants, and that the longer Covid-19 lingers, the more accepted mask-wearing in public after vaccinations will be. My hope is that as people unmask, they also become accepting of seeing people prefer to keep masks on in public. Living in China and seeing masks frequently, I never thought of it as weird. I never judged someone for wearing one, and as an avid fan of street food, it comforted me to see a street vendor who wore a mask as he or she prepared my food.

We will be mostly unmasked soon. Let’s make sure that we are considerate to those who continue to wear masks, since they are being considerate of us.