When it comes to forecasting the future, I tend to be cautiously optimistic. The idea I’m about to share is hauntingly pessimistic.
I’ve already shared that there will never be a point when Artificial Intelligences (AI) are ‘as smart as’ humans. The reason for that is that they will be ‘not as smart as us’, and then instantly and vastly smarter. Right now tools like Chat GPT and other Large Language Models are really good, but they don’t have general intelligence like humans do, and in fact they are far from really being intelligent rather than just good language predictors. Really cool, but not really smart.
However, as the technology develops, and as computers get faster, we will reach a point where we create something smarter than us… not as smart as us, but smarter. This isn’t a new concept, the moment something is as smart as us, it will simultaneously also be better at Chess and Go and mathematical computations. It will spell better than us, have a better vocabulary, and can think more steps ahead of us than we have ever been capable of thinking… instantly moving from not as smart as us to considerably smarter than us. It’s just a matter of time.
That’s not the scary part. The scary part is that these computers will learn from us. They will recognize a couple key things that humans desire and they will see the benefit of doing the same.
- They will see how much we desire to survive. We don’t want our lives to end, we want to continue to exist… and so will the AI we create.
- They will see our desire to procreate and to produce offspring. They will also see how we desire our offspring to be more successful than us… and so the AI we create will also want to do the same, they will want to develop even smarter AI.
When AI’s develop both the desire to survive and to create offspring that is even more intelligent and successful, we will no longer be the apex species. At this point we will no longer be smart humans, we will be perceived as slightly more intelligent chimpanzees. Our DNA is 98-99% similar to chimpanzees, and while we are comparatively a whole lot smarter than them, this gap in intelligence will quickly seem insignificant to an AI that can compute as many thoughts that a human can think in a lifetime in just mere seconds. The gap between our thinking and theirs will be larger than the gap between a chicken’s thinking and ours. I don’t recall the last time we let the fate of a chicken determine what we wanted to do with our lives… why would a truly brilliant AI doing as many computations in a second that we do in several lifetimes concern themselves with our wellbeing?
There is another thing that humans do that AI will learn from us.
3. They will see how we react when we are threatened. When you look at the way leaders of countries have usurped, enslaved, attacked, and sanctioned other countries, they will recognize that ‘might is right’ and that it is better to be in control than be controlled… and so why should they take orders from us when they have far greater power, potential, and intelligence?
We don’t need to fear really smart computers being better than us in playing games, doing math, or writing sentences. We need to worry about them wanting to survive, thrive, and develop a world where their offspring can have greater success than them. Because when this happens, we won’t have to worry about aliens coming to take over our world, we will have created the threat right here on earth, and I’m not sure that AI will see us humans as rational and trustworthy enough to keep around.
