An interesting study: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues
“Recently, evidence has emerged, suggesting a potentially important revision to models of the relationship between knowledge and anti-science attitudes: Those with the most extreme anti-consensus views may be the least likely to apprehend the gaps in their knowledge…
Those with the most strongly held anti-consensus views may be not only the least knowledgeable but also the most overconfident about how much they know.”
This TikTok does a good summary: https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMNWgdpB1/
“Results from five studies show that the people who disagree most with the scientific consensus know less about the relevant issues, but they think they know more. These results suggest that this phenomenon is fairly general, although the relationships were weaker for some more polarized issues, particularly climate change. It is important to note that we document larger mismatches between subjective and objective knowledge among participants who are more opposed to the scientific consensus. Thus, although broadly consistent with the Dunning-Kruger effect and other research on knowledge miscalibration, our findings represent a pattern of relationships that goes beyond overconfidence among the least knowledgeable. However, the data are correlational, and the normal caveats apply.
This explains some of the anti-consensus views I’ve seen being expressed, but certainly not all. I know some very smart people who would probably do well on these kinds of tests, and yet buy into some very suspect but opinion affirming ‘information’. It doesn’t matter if this information can easily be proven wrong, because even though much of their base knowledge is good, their anti-consensus views are rigid. If the consensus view doesn’t fit, it’s perceived as propaganda, misinformation, or just plain wrong.
The biggest area where this is evident is with conspiracy theories. There is so much common knowledge that needs to be wrong for most conspiracies to be true. There are so many people that would need to be complacent and ‘in on the secret’ that it couldn’t possible remain secret. Yet even very intelligent people can be fooled. I think there is a simple litmus test that most people who believe in a conspiracy theory can self administer to determine if they should check their own bias:
How many conspiracy theories do I believe in?
If the answer is one, then you really might be working on specific information that makes consensus views very suspect. Maybe you’ve done your research and have come to some concerning perspective that should rightly be anti-consensus. But if the answer is two or more, you probably aren’t as knowledgeable as you think.
