Think about all the superstitions people have. Dating back as far as we have written records we have stories of people sacrificing animals, and even people, for Gods to ensure bountiful crops, or safe journeys, or successes in battle. When these things didn’t work it was for other reasons, and when things went as they should it was evidence that these rituals did indeed work.
But we need not look back thousands of years. We can look at modern day sports rituals, and lucky charms including religious paraphernalia, that people believe bring them luck. Fortunately over millennia things like sacrifices have fallen out of favour, but many rituals of luck and good blessings continue. Often with the person doing the ritual, or having the charm, believing that these things make a difference in their luck or success. Why? Because it ‘worked’ once? Twice?
In the grand scheme of things this doesn’t harm people, and I’m not against the idea that positive thinking can take you further than more negative thoughts. If a lucky charm helps you feel lucky, that is likely a far better state to be in than feeling unlucky.
Where this goes awry is in conspiracy theories. I know this first hand from watching my father go down some dark rabbit holes of doom and gloom. He saw connections that were at best coincidences. He found patterns where there were none. He searched for, and found, meaning in unrelated or tangent events that simply had no connection or no meaningful connections worth being put together.
Russia not supplying oil to Europe was the first step in a complete global collapse. Minor earthquakes off of Haida Gwaii were proof that the west coast around Vancouver was going to have a massive earthquake in a matter of days. Nuclear war, economic collapse, aliens, cabals, polar shifts, you name an end-of-the-world calamity and my dad saw the evidence that it was “coming down the pike”. I just searched that very phrase in my email and found a 2012 message from my dad,
“…What is coming down the pike will be a massive off the scale event and will impact the Pacific tectonic plate – I am referring to the entire Pacific Rim’s 40,000 km circumference. You may consider this to be more of ‘the sky is falling’ alarmist warning, but I have an ominous feeling it is imminent…”
He gave up on sending those emails to me a few years later, not because the ‘evidence’ wasn’t there, but because I wasn’t taking his warnings seriously enough.
In many ways my dad was brilliant, but he had faulty pattern detection that took over where logic usually prevails. But this doesn’t just happen to my dad. Maybe because of him I’m more attuned to this, but there has been a significant growth in delusional pattern detection in the past 5-10 years. It shows up in many places. I’ve written a few times about Flat Earthers as an example. I struggle to comprehend how this is a more popular belief in 2023 that it was in 1998, 25 years ago!
Have people gotten dumber? Maybe. Or maybe it isn’t just an intelligence thing. Maybe it’s faulty pattern detection combined with easy to access misinformation. Maybe there is something inherent in the human brain that seeks out patterns, that doesn’t know how to survive in a world without real threats, so we just pattern detect and find them anyway.
Back in the caveman days we needed to know the difference between the sound of predators versus the sound of prey when we heard the bushes rustling. It was a matter of life and death. Now we don’t need this skill. So maybe this pattern detection error is due to a lack of real threats and the need to seek these threats out to survive. Maybe.
The question is, how do we pivot? How do we move people away from false pattern detection, and still maintain enough scepticism to notice when there really is a harmful pattern to be concerned about? If you see that pattern, please share it, because I just see it getting worse from here.
